Where we sit March 1

FWHORN

FWHORN

10,000+ Posts
Lunardi has us as one of last four in as do about 3/4 of the prognosticators. A loss at Lawrence is a given so factor that into most calculations and Texas probably wakes up Sunday as still one of last four in. Some losses in last week by other teams have helped the Horns even as Texas did itself no favors blowing it on road at OSU and at home to BU.

A third game with Baylor now looms in KC and a win there should clinch a berth, a loss and its who knows. Likely dependent on a lot of the higher rated mid majors not losing in their conf tourny's.

It is very hard not to look back on about eight games and know that if any one of them had gone differently this wouldnt even be a conversation. Those home losses to Mizzou, KU and Baylor really hurt because all three could and should have been wins, change any one and Texas is in comfortably. Shoot change NC State way back in November and I think the Horns are sitting pretty.

I know the argument about NIT runs and more time but the heck with that, anything less than an NCAA berth is a failure of a season and 2011-2012 is right on that razor edge.
 
i agree completely with Fraschilla's comment last night that a win at Kansas would clinch a berth, but a probable loss against the Jayhawks would necessitate at least one win in the conference tourney to secure a spot in the dance.
 
I think one or two victories in the NCAA would be well worth it. Remember we do play in one of the top conferences in the nation. We get the right location/situation we might have a shot at the Sweet Sixteen, give me that chance any day of the year!!!!

I am getting tired of this settling for something less than Texas because it will be better off in the long run. That is crap and comes from people that do not live in the real world. The score that we keep is the NCAA tournament for how many years in a row? I like being in that stat year after year.
 
Good post! At the end of the day:

Win at Kansas = ticket to NCAA's

Loss at Kansas = one win in Big 12 tourney = ticket to NCAA's

LET'S DO THIS!!!!!!!!!!
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Agree with all that has been said. I hate that it comes down to probably having to beat Baylor - especially considering how we're playing now.
 
It really doesn't matter how we played the last two games. It seems like this team wakes up in a brave new world every day. They could just as easily beat Kansas and Baylor as they can lose to both of them by 20+.
 
I wonder if J Brown ponders that dumbass technical against NCST every now and then. The loss could cost Texas a tourney slot.
 
That's ********. One play doesn't cost them jack-squat. The entire body of work is at play.

All that said, if we are only one of the last 4 in, we're playing for the right to be in the Big Dance? Really? This is Texas? Maybe we should take a pass until next year.

Hook'em!!!
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No, the play-in games are always conference tournament winners from crappy conferences who got auto-bids.
 
Fraschilla and Lunardi seem to disagree if you asked me. On this matter I'd go with Lunardi because he's the expert. The margin for error may be razor-thin but I'm assuming he didn't expect Texas to pull off an upset when he counted us in.
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I am grateful the Kansas game is on Saturday. I fear the Longhorns might go up there and punt. That's what we did the other two times we played top 10 teams on the road this season (i.e. at UNC and at Mizzu). I am not certain when the NCAA tournament selection committee is going to be sequestered in hotel here in Indy to start watching the games, but I'd guess sometime between Sunday-Wednesday would make sense. A Longhorn drubbing might be missed as far as eyeball tests are concerned. Our last two wins didn't meet the eyeball test. This team needs one more win, and a a win over a good team. My gut tells me Lunardi and others who put Texas on the right side of the bubble fail to understand how irritated other schools are regarding our conference big stick wielding and the Longhorn Network. It only takes one or two of these school's ADs on the selection committee to fork us come Selection Sunday. Thus, no win over KU or Baylor, and NIT here we come for absolute certain- same as consensus on here anyway. But we have a shot, better than what it looked like in early February!
 
Rex got it almost right. I think he's still a bit pessimistic, but wouldn't argue too much.

Lunardi has moved us up by one spot, from #67 to #66, and from a 13 seed play-in to a 12 seed play-in. Yeah, he's splitting a hair here, but he's moving us in the right direction.
 
We just dodged one bullet - Murray State escaped with 2-pt win over Tenn St., meaning that's one less unexpected AQ which we can't stand to have pull upsets.

Hook'em!!!
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I just googled rpi and Iowa state has an rpi of 32, compared to our 53. We beat Iowa State, and I don't see how we're out.

Unless, of course they count the last 10 very heavily. With a 1-1 record in the tourney our last 10 will be 5-5.
 
Lunardi posted Texas now as one of the first four teams out. This will be a close one, but it all comes down to tourney time. At this point I want to get in simply to keep the streak alive. All along I didn't think this is a tourney team, but I want them in.
 
Maybe Joe listened to Coach Knight when Knight said we had to win two. We're in the other side of the bracket, opposite Kansas, I'm guessing, so maybe, just maybe, we beat Iowa St. and run into a Mizzou team that doesnt' care to get into the finals, like we've not cared about getting into the finals in the past.

If that happens, there's our two wins, we lost to Kansas again in the finals, and we get a 11 or 12 seed.
 
yep, we even beat the spread. I just noticed I was wrong on the last 10. We should finish with a 6-4 record in the last ten, if that makes a difference.

Northwestern does have a better rpi than us, but they have a losing record in conference play. Does the committee factor how well you played in conference?
 
ok, I agree if we lose both Chapman and Wangmene, we're done, NIT time.

But Chapman's looked pretty minor to me, anybody know?
 
Creighton pulled out a win today and another "dodging the bullet" upset. We can win 2 but it's going to require hitting on ALL cylinders. I still think if we're in a play-in game...VERY embarrassing.

Hook'em!!!
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Texas faces Iowa State, not Baylor on Thursday, but I'm not entirely certain that is a good thing. While Texas doesn't have the front line to deal with Jones, Acy, Miller, Jefferson, and Jones, neither does Missouri, which beat Baylor twice.

I really don't think most people ever understood how good Iowa State is. ISU is the most prolific and most accurate three point shooting team in the conference. Texas is bad at defending the three. Texas has no one that can match White inside and outside. ISU is the best in the conference at defending the three. All those factors bode ill for Texas in my mind.

Lunardi is/was full of it. This morning he had posted an update to his brackets that included Seton Hall as an 11th seed--the same Seton Hall that just lost by 28 to 200 rpi DePaul. The equivalent for Texas would have been losing to Tech by that amount. It would never be on the bubble again, and so should Seton Hall be kicked off entirely.

Arizona and Cal both lost today, andboth were in ahead of Texas according to Lunardi. Arizona lost to 250+ rpi Arizona State, another unforgivable loss in my opinion. Arizona, Washington, BYU and Seton Hall were in with weaker resumes than Texas.

On Basketball prospectus about a month ago, someone posted an article showing how 97.5% of all teams have been predicted by auto bids plus at large determined by kenpom + rpi ranking. If that is the guideline, then Texas appears safe, as it checks in around 40, well below the threshold of 50-55, since auto bids usually encompass about 15-18 teams that are outside the top 50 or so. I'm not entirely convinced that Texas would not be one of the 2.5% since it has such a large deviation between Kenpom and rpi, so I think a Big 12 tournament win is needed to secure the spot, but onlly one is needed, particularly since it would be Texas's fourth win over teams that are locks for the tournament. A lot of the other bubble teams have only one or two wins over the tournament field.

Finally, conference tournaments are playing out well.

Belmont had a chance for an at large but won the A-Sun. Middle Tennessee State was bubble but lost in the quarterfinals to a 250 rpi team. That kills it for an at large bid in all likelihood. The CAA might still get two bids, but I'm hoping VCU slaughters Drexel and pushes it off the bubble. Creighton held on to ensure the MVC gets only Wichita State and Creighton. Akron flubbed earlier in the week and removed itself from at large if it loses the MAC tournament. Harvard has been very unimpressive of late against Columbia and Cornell, and probably wouldn't survive a playoff loss to Penn, if that happens, so the Ivy League only gets one. Long Beach State lost season finale, so a tournament loss will probably kick it off the bubble.

All in all, it's been a pretty good week with the very big exception of the injury to Wangmene.
 
Both games versus Iowa State were awfully tight. There is no doubt the Longhorns will be the more desperate team. I think we need two wins to make the Dance, and both games will be defacto road games.
 
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