where is the anthropogenic influence??

HornCyclist, you ask a great question and yes this scares the hell out of me primarily for my great grandchildren and beyond. The earth and humans will still exist, but I am very concerned that only a billion or so people will be able to live comfortably on earth primarily due to food supply issues.
 
By the way, notice that the use of the term "stored" is already sliding in the direction of the inevitability argument. "Stored" is a passive tense verb and implies agency, begging the question "stored by whom?" or "stored by what?" Storage is a functional thing. We store things for a reason. And if this matter is being stored, then you are essentially saying that it is natural, or right, or by design, that it will eventually be released into the climate system.

Careful with that.
 
You are arguing in circles. The amount of CO2 (and other gasses) being added (I use this word even though the reality is that its chemical characteristics are changed not "added" in a thermodynamic sense) to the system is a known quantity with known physical characteristics. It is not some mystery.

This is not some hopelessly (irreducibly?) complex open system that we do not comprehend. It is a terrarium or petri dish with known parameters. The only real question is how much the multiplier impact will be from the increased amount of water vapor caused by the other gasses retaining more heat. The equilibrium is likely to be between 2-4 degrees C provided we start taking some steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. If not, it will likely be higher.
 
I would tend to agree. I think they have done a good job of understanding the overall climate system. The primary question is the equilibrium point.
 
This conversation has led me to think quite abit about the "system" and what all constitutes it and how it affects climate.

One thing I was thinking is that CO2 which is not in the atmosphere could still affect global temperature. The CO2 still traps heat whether it is mixed in a gas phase or a solid or liquid phase.

With respect to the issue of what system is it, how is the definition affected by chemical change? I don't remember that issue being mentioned in my thermo class. So the amount of matter is constant but what the matter exists as changes.

The other is my understanding is that the earth is not warmed by "heat" per se but by IR radiation from the sun. This radiation is absorbed by most matter and converted to heat. So the surface of the earth probably has an effect. Some materials probably convert the IR to heat more or less efficiently, which is something I haven't heard factored into the equation. Interesting to think about.
 
Thanks. It's just something I have been thinking about because I am going through electromagnetics in my job.

I have also had to study reflection in a variety of ways: optical, diffuse, lower frequency etc.

It is very fascinating.
 
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