What to root for for a Playoff spot

[Duck Dodgers]

Here's my outline of what to root for:

1. Texas wins of course, or it's a second tier bowl, as it should be.

2. Georgia wins. That advances them to the playoffs, and them only, while a win by Alabama, beating the #1 team, and only a loss to Texas, probably puts them in the playoffs, as well as a 1 loss Georgia.

3. Michigan loses, but unlikely as long as they score more than a FG, as Iowa seems immune to the idea of scoring points.

4. FSU loses. This is probably the most likely thing to occur. The starting QB is out, their backup got roughed up against Florida. Still they came on strong in the second half in that game. Louisville was looking good then soiled themselves against UK.

5. Oregon wins. A win by Washington puts them in, as is proper - undefeated and conference champs. But a 1 loss Oregon team allow at least for some debate by Texas. But they're ranked ahead of Texas already, and a win against a #5 Washington team looks better than a win against a #20ish OSU team.

Often there are at least a few upsets on Championship day, so we can hope for one.

 

[OrangeShogun]

Texas wins.
Georgia wins.
Michigan wins.
Washington wins.
FSU loses.

 

[theiioftx]

Michigan isn’t losing to Iowa.

Oregon or Washington will get in.

Alabama isn’t beating Georgia. If they do, both will get in.

FSU will be the only likely loss. Even if they do, we are not jumping up 3 spots.

We lost to OU. Great season and fun to be inaugural Big 12 champs and final Big 12 champs as well! But we ain’t making the CFP.

 

[guy4321]

Yea, I think an FSU loss is the only way we get in.

An Oregon win likely keeps both Oregon and Washington ahead of us.

A Bama win likely keeps UGA ahead of us and has Bama jump us.

An Iowa win might keep both UM and tOSU ahead of us.

The committee has shown a lone loss in the CCG shouldn't knock one out.

 

[LonghornDave]

Texas wins.
Georgia wins.
Michigan wins.
Washington wins.
FSU loses.

I think all of the above could still lose.

 

[Pickle_Nuts]

It will be the lack of red zone performance in the RRS which will be the CFP slot killer. Texas must score from inside five yards in all cases, running or throwing.

Oh and sub 3:00 minute clock management in the 4th.

Im still hopeful but, whatever they do and wherever they play, just keep winning.

 

[cnb]

 

[militaryhorn]

Based on their own rules we should jump Oregon this week because two out of the four things here we have over them, SoS and the common opponent result.

It doesn't consider margin of victory but since we both played Tech and won they should be considering SoS which we have. I couldn't find anything about 'eye test' on their website. TBH, the committee is not even following their own published guidelines of picking the top teams.

 

[dukesteer]

It ain’t over til it’s over. This year the committee’s discussion will be epic because there really are 8 teams that, as of right now, have a strong argument.

BTW, I don’t believe that Bama & GA both get in if Bama upsets them…this year. Yes, there would be an enormous amount of screaming and yelling — and Finebaum’s head could explode on live television— but because of the quality of the top 8 (as of now), that CCG will matter IMO.

Has there ever been more interest in and more debate about the CFP?

 

[militaryhorn]

It ain’t over til it’s over. This year the committee discussion will be epic because there really are 8 teams that, as of right now, have a strong argument.

BTW, I don’t believe that Bama & GA both get in if Bama upsets them…this year. Yes, there would be an enormous amount of screaming and yelling — and Finebaum’s head could explode on live television— but because of the quality of the top 8 (as of now), that CCG will matter IMO.

Has there ever been more interest in and more debate about the CFP?

What is making history this year is the fact you could have four undefeated teams that are conference champions.

It really is our luck on this sort of stuff happening. The one year we could have been selected to play in the playoffs we have four undefeated teams ahead of us.

 

[LonghornCatholic]

 

[BornOrange0855]

Who had the toughest schedule in all the land? I'm of the opinion that Oregon, Georgia and Michigan all win their CCGs. FSU is the wildcard. In the event they lose, we need to absolutely crush OSU. Then maybe, just maybe, we get in.

 

[Chop]

- Georgia wins
- Michigan wins
- Washington wins
- Florida State loses
- Texas wins
- Ohio State doesn't play because they're not good enough to even MAKE their conference championship game
- Oklahoma -- see Ohio State
- Alabama loses
- Louisville Wins

Playoffs:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Washington
4. Texas

Georgia vs Texas
Michigan vs. Washington

Texas over Michigan for all the marbles

 

[FWHORN]

It really comes down to 1) Texas must win (obviously) and 2) Louisville must upset FSU. I wish that there was a scenario that included an "or" after 2 that included 3) Oregon upsets Washington but I frankly think the winner of that game is in regardless.

Frankly, just win the Big XII for only the fourth time in school history and whatever else comes along is just house money. Any way you look at it Texas is headed to a really nice bowl and has a ton of motivation for next year so long as they beat Okie State.

 

[ViperHorn]

Finebaum’s head could explode on live television

Hopefully, someone will be rolling tape!

 

[TxLawGrad]

This is also being discussed on the AP Poll thread - this is a handy predictor that ESPN has out; I cannot vouch for its accuracy: Create a path to the College Football Playoff by picking conference championship game winners

This seems to confirm that the simplest way for us to get in (after beating OSU, obviously) is for FSU to lose. If Louisville beats FSU and we beat OSU, we're almost guaranteed a spot, regardless of what else happens.

 

[ViperHorn]

we're almost guaranteed a spot, regardless of what else happens.

It is the "almost" that has me worried.

 

[TxLawGrad]

It is the "almost" that has me worried.

It really comes down to whether the committee still values conference championships.

If we beat OSU and FSU loses, who could "jump" us?

- a 1-loss Florida State that just lost its CCG
- (if Bama beats Georgia) a 1-loss Georgia that just lost its CCG
- (if Oregon beats Washington) a 1-loss Washington that just lost its CCG
- a 1-loss Ohio State that didn't even play in its CCG
- (if Iowa (yes, Iowa) beats Michigan) a 1-loss Michigan that just lost its CCG (against freakin' Iowa)

Now, don't get me wrong - those teams above are much more likely to jump us if they lose epic nail-biters and we struggle and barely beat OkState. Style points will matter, but how much?

 

[Chop]

This is also being discussed on the AP Poll thread - this is a handy predictor that ESPN has out; I cannot vouch for its accuracy: Create a path to the College Football Playoff by picking conference championship game winners

This seems to confirm that the simplest way for us to get in (after beating OSU, obviously) is for FSU to lose. If Louisville beats FSU and we beat OSU, we're almost guaranteed a spot, regardless of what else happens.

That link is excellent. Here it is again:

Create a path to the College Football Playoff by picking conference championship game winners

If we win, and FSU loses, it's really tough for us not to make the Playoff.

 

[utahorn]

Take care of business on Saturday and see where the chips fall. Nice to see that paperclip (OU) is not on the list.

While I have my doubts about the committee, hope springs eternal.

 

[TxLawGrad]

There's good info on another thread about how the committee has consistently valued conference championships. Essentially, the committee looks first at W-L record, then at whether a team won its conference title. A common theme is that if records are identical, the committee selects conference champions over conference runners-up or also-rans. This can bode well for us, but only if we win vs. OkSt, and (1) FSU loses, or (2) Oregon and one other undefeated loses.

 

[militaryhorn]

This proves my point I made on another thread. The committee is not even following their own approved mandate on how teams should be ranked. With a full regular season in the books we should jump Oregon and be at #5.

 

[22Horn]

who would have beaten Horns as dominate as the Horns played Sat in all phases of the Tech game?

 

[dukesteer]

BTW, seems like a foregone conclusion that Oregon beats Washington Friday. I’m not so sure.

 

[guy4321]

While nice, Sagarin's math doesn't compute. He has Ohio St ranked #2, Texas #7, FSU #12, and Texas A&M #15! (That's not SOS - that's overall.)


College Football Ratings Page

 

[caryhorn]

Based on their own rules we should jump Oregon this week because two out of the four things here we have over them, SoS and the common opponent result.

It doesn't consider margin of victory but since we both played Tech and won they should be considering SoS which we have. I couldn't find anything about 'eye test' on their website. TBH, the committee is not even following their own published guidelines of picking the top teams.

After looking over the above, IF horns beat OSU I think Texas comes in at # 4 in the final Committee playoff rankings IF FSU loses, Georgia beats Bama, Washington beats Oregon, Michigan beats Iowa.
Horns will have a Conference championship; unbeaten Washington has a Conference championship; unbeaten Georgia has a conference championship; unbeaten Michigan has a Conference championship; And one loss Texas has a Conference championship. The most important two factors the Committee notes above are 1) Conference Championship and won lost record.
Horns would have what no other one loss team has--a Conference championship.

 

[militaryhorn]

After looking over the above, IF horns beat OSU I think Texas comes in at # 4 in the final Committee playoff rankings IF FSU loses, Georgia beats Bama, Washington beats Oregon, Michigan beats Iowa.
Horns will have a Conference championship; unbeaten Washington has a Conference championship; unbeaten Georgia has a conference championship; unbeaten Michigan has a Conference championship; And one loss Texas has a Conference championship. The most important two factors the Committee notes above are 1) Conference Championship and won lost record.
Horns would have what no other one loss team has--a Conference championship.

You mentioned won lost record that the committee considers but I don't read that anywhere.

Again, if they are following their own mandate we should jump Oregon this week based on their published criteria that must be considered if the teams are comparable.

 

[Phil Elliott]

Texas wins.
Georgia wins.
Michigan wins.
Washington wins.
FSU loses.

This to me is the "shortcut" we need. This takes other 1-loss teams (Oregon, Alabama) out of the conversation. Then it's only Ohio State we have to contend with as the other 1-loss team for consideration (FSU is out IMO because they lost their QB), but we should win that one since TOSU did not play in their CCG.

All other scenarios leave us to fight it out with teams that now have 1 loss but were above us going in (Washington, Georgia). Georgia in particular I say will still be in along with Alabama due to SEC bias and then we are going to be out, so I say priority #2 behind us winning is Georgia has to win in this case.

 

[longhornlegend]

BTW, seems like a foregone conclusion that Oregon beats Washington Friday. I’m not so sure.

Unless Washington takes a dump, they are tough to deal with. Oregon is also solid but I believe Washington wins this one. FSU is shaky without their qb and that has to factor into the cfp as well. All I care about now is that we show up satruday and handle ok state like they did double t. If we do that, most people would be very happy as its a marked improvement over the last 13 years.

 

[bystander]

It hurt that Ohio State ended up ahead of us. If we crush OK State, then that will help, assuming we get the help we need from FSU losing. But I think Chop's scenario would do it. It should do it.

And I need you guys to know that I've completed my emotional transfer from FSU to UT. I was born in Tallahassee, Florida and my Dad got his BA, MA and Ph. D. there. I was practically raised on that campus. Then I moved to Laredo when I was 12 years old, back in 1970. A crushing change in my life at the time. But the other night, I found myself rooting for the Florida Gators to defeat my Seminoles. Imagine any of you, rooting for A&M or OU over Texas. That's the equivalent. I'm transformed.