What outcome do we NEED to host?

Brad Austin

Brad Austin

2,500+ Posts
I'm curious as to your opinions of what outcomes are needed for us to still host a regional.

Is it imperative we get the sweep this weekend? Meaning will just a series win tank us regardless of a good showing in the tourney?

If we do sweep, how many wins would still be necessary in the tourney?

If we drop a game to KSU, would the only remaining savior be winning the conference tourney title?

I realize there are no concrete answers to any of this, but fairly certain there are legitimate guesses.

My take is we need a KSU sweep and then win at least 2 games in the tourney...OR...2 wins in the KSU series plus winning the tourney crown.
 
You have to sweep a very bad KSU team who has clinched last place and will not be in the Conference Tourney.

Tech beat WVU and Musgraves last night and could well be on their way to a sweep.

We have to sweep or finish fifth in the conference. A sweep means we finish no worse than a tie for fourth with Tech and we have the tie breaker.

OSU needs one more win or TCU loss to clinch the conference title and they will host a regional as will TCU as they will finish second.

Rice is going to host a regional too. Houston has a shot at hosting.

I can only see Tech or Texas hosting if they win the Conference Tournament as they will have finished fourth or fifth in the conference.

Maybe if Texas beat OSU or TCU a couple of times to reach the final of the Tourney they might have an outside shot. That is the bare minimum I think.
 
NB,

If the past 10 years or so of regional hosting practice means anything as far as precedent, the rpi numbers are by FAR the most important number for hosting. OSU may host, but only if their rpi is in the top 20 when the committee chooses, regardless of winning the regular season. Same goes for us, but vice versa. If our rpi is below about 12-13, we will host regardless of a 4th or 5th place finish. It's happened all the time with the ACC and SEC in previous years.
 
Orangeblood is right on the heavy weight of the RPI. 5 more wins (sweep and 2 in tourney)...that'd be 39-17 season with a very high RPI. Be hard to pass us by with that.
 
OSU is going to win the conference, is 40-13, in the top ten in every poll, and has won eleven games in a row.

They also beat Texas 2 out of 3 in Austin. I think they are in good shape to host. If they win the Tournament they have to be in the running for a top eight national seed.

I keep wondering how we have this high RPI.
We beat Rice twice, Houston, DBU, Sam Houston, Kansas once, OSU once, and Tech twice.

We lost to Kansas twice, OSU twice, TCU three times, Rice once, and Tech once.

That's 9-9 against the quality teams on the schedule.
There are a lot of bad teams on that schedule.

We also lost 2 of 3 to WVU and once to Hawaii at home.

Stanford and Cal are having bad seasons.

KSU has to have a terrible RPI and just playing them should lower it, much less losing a game to them.
 
Until the number of games dropped a couple of years, 40 wins always seemed like the magic number for hosting. Since the number of games has been reduced, I have to believe that 2 of 3 this weekend and anything other than 0-2 bbq in the tourney will guarantee us a shot.

That said, we've had a dramatic late season swoon, and that is the wildcard to me!
 
I'm going with playing in the final as the least we can do to save the host. That requires 4 wins and brings the total to 40. We have to show something to the board that our team is on the upswing again. Proof we are shaking off our extended freefall to end the reg season.

Just don't believe 3-2 in the tourney is good enough. Would mean we likely booted Tech, yet got knocked out by tOSU just as we did in reg season. Nothing would have changed in regards to our performance in conference. Same reg season outcomes.

Since I'm calling 4 wins as the needed number...I'm also forecasting another road trip coming soon. Sorry, those bats are about as consistent as a schizophrenia victim with Alzheimer's. But Augie doesn't mind...we score 2 runs and time and again he brags about our quality at bats in the game we lost. His postgame excuses have gotten so frequent and lame it's hard to even listen to. At KSU he even said 4 of our deep fly balls the day before would have cleared the fence if the wind had been blowing out like the current day, and we would'nt have lost. Then followed it up with this old yarn..."but no excuses".
pukey.gif
 
Before this past weekend I thought reaching the Tourney final might be enough.

Now I think we would have to win it.

The only other alternative is if Patterson has pictures of each committee member in compromising situations with farm animals.

Actually being sent to Houston as a #2 seed may well be better than hosting.

Why you say? To justify letting Texas host, the NCAA would very likely send a very salty #2 seed to Austin.
Think Cal-Irvine when we hosted that Regional in Round Rock.

We are not exactly a juggernaut at home against good competition. Texas played the top three teams in the conference at home this season with a 2-7 record against them.

Rice is not that good and I would take my chances against them. That is unless the #3 seed beat us both.

We need to not be sent out of state because that would not stack up well for us in any of those Regionals.
 
At this point, we'll host. It probably won't be a top 8 seed, but we'll host. Texas will throw too much money into their bid for the NCAA to resist.
 
We are either hosting already from getting into the winner's bracket and our insanely high RPI. Or we need 1 more win and a berth in the conf tourney champ game. That would mean we ousted and beat the #1 seed twice. Would be an absolute lock regardless of the outcome of the final. Let's get another win and lock this baby down. Hell, let's take the tourney.
hookem.gif
 
Texas is currently RPI'd at 7. If we can win the tournament. With 40 wins. I think we will host the Regional and Super Regional. SOS is very strong and Texas will put in a solid bid $.
 
Hopefully, OSU will be dragging today, after not getting into bed before 2:00 am. We are rested and should have a little bounce in our step. Horns on TWC, here in Austin, at 12:30. Hook'm.
 
It will be interesting to see what happens today. Top 8 RPI vs. .500 in last 20 games and 1-5 against ranked teams. I could see us hosting a regional, or #2 seed somewhere else in Texas or Lousiana...
 
16 host sites announced tonight at 8pm central.

I googled it and I am sure that it said 6pm central or if I just did the west coast math in my head between the time I googled and posted.

Sorry. About. That.
 
Sixteen regional hosts will be announced Sunday at 8 p.m. CT and the full field will be unveiled Wednesday at 11 a.m. on ESPNU.
 
All the regional sites will be released to ESPN tonight.

The complete brackets and national seeds will be announced on the special show tomorrow.
 
Wow...Guess the swoon got us. I am actually pretty stunned we didn't get a regional after 39 wins, but hey, we're still playing!
 
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