Week 7 Prediction Thread: Texas vs Iowa St....The Winds of Change

People keep tailing about how good Iowa State's defense is, but they can't handle Ewers Bijan Worthy Whittington Roschon etcetera etcetera etcetera.

Horns win big.
 
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One group will end up shocked and another will probably be crowing about 'told ya so.'

Line on this one still seems like an over-reaction to the Texas performance last week. As of a few minutes ago, Texas is -15.5 at Circa, which is down slightly from early in the week. O/U is at 49, also down from early week (I saw 50.5 on the Monday sheet from Circa).

I feel like too many are downplayiing that ISU can actually play some defense. They lost to wheat aggy but still held them to ten points. They also held a not-very-good Iowa team to a touchdown (their first of the season by the way- don't let the 7 against SDSU fool you- that was the two safety game). And Iowa did try to make it look good late against meatchicken. But even crappy teams can score points, land thieves not withstanding...

The reality is that ISU has only given up more than 14 points once...and that was 31 against Bailor. They held what appears to be a good KU team to 14, which is the high water mark aside from Bailor. Even with the Texas shutout last week, Texas has still allowed more points this year than ISU. And, with a backup for half of the game, KU still put 31 on the cockroaches last week...

Conversely, Texas does a better job on offense and has found their stride with the return of QE. I would still like to see#DijonMustardson to figure out his way, although last week may have been a good step in that direction.

ISU rushes 32 times a game for just over 106 yards, with an average of 258 YPG on 39 passes. Texas allows 126 on the ground on an average of 37 rushes, with the yards per carry being about equal. They hold opponents to 212 YPG but that was helped immensely by the, what was it, five that the land thieves had...oh wait, being told it was actually about 40.

Trends to pay attention for if you are looking at driving just across the border to use one of the Louisiana apps or going to Vegas (because, you know, so many other options would be *cough* illegal *cough*)...last seven games between Texas and ISU went under the total and ISU is also 10-0 to the under after playing wheat aggy. Texas is 8-2 against the spread (ATS) at home with Sark wearing a headset.

On the season, Texas is 5-1 ATS with the only loss being in the house of flying tortillas. ISU is 2-3-1 ATS and is 0-2-1 ATS in Big XII play. Four of their six went under the total.

Weather seems to be decent for fans...low-mid 80's at opening kick and no rain in the forecast. Wind should be from the south around 10MPH. Not really enough to impact the kicking or passing games but it does allow for the prospect of some floaters on deep balls for a team throwing north to south and for possible overthrows going the other way. I see the latter being more of a factor for Texas than ISU.

I can see a potential for the game going over, but I don't expect it. My expectation...Texas D comes ready to play and holds ISU offense in check. However, ISU D ALSO comes ready to play and holds Texas under 30.

When Gabriel blows his horn, I look for the scoreboard to read:

TEXAS - 28
ISU- 16

So it is written, so it shall be won!
 
:ut:38
:isu:13
Hopefully this defensive improvement continues. Allowing 17.83 per game so far. ISU offense is not too good so I think we run on them and play action works, over the top. This could get to 45-13 easily. I assume we lay-off in the 4th.
 
So, I finally got to sit down and record the predictions for the week after working a hard 3 days and now get to enjoy 4 days off. I noticed that there were a few predictions with ISU not scoring any points. Prior to last week, I hardly ever saw a score prediction of 0 for the opponents. I think last week was an anomaly with our defense with a mixture of the team being hyped up against OU and a terrible OU offense. I don't see this D pitching another shutout the rest of the year.

With that, I do feel that the D will match up well against ISU's O and only limit them to a few points and O our will show how good they really are this year. Heck we put up 19 on Alabama's D and ISU is nowhere near the caliber of that D. Plus, we did it with our backup QB for most of the game.

TEXAS - 38
ISU - 10
 
1sahorn said:
I think ISU is better than their record would indicate. Right now they are an angry bunch of well coached 2-3* college kids who think they are better than their record. No surprise...we get their best shot.

Horns. 24
Clones. 17
Click to expand...
Bump...Got our score right...missed isu by 4 pts
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