Ukraine updates

[Mr. Deez]

@Mr. Deez Traveling through Frankfurt airport on way to Delhi and the airport is not hotter than hell (despite being cold outside, near 0 C). Normally it’s hot inside as you know. In fact, it’s actually cool and refreshing. I can only conclude that Germany has cut back the heat to the airport for this to occur. Hopefully this changes long term behavior.

Glad to hear that. Germans are weird about heat. One of them once explained to me that they think being cold and dry creates a major risk of illness. Of course, we know that being cold can make you more susceptible to getting sick, but they're borderline superstitious about it. That's why they largely avoid air conditioning (in addition to the costs).

So in the winter, they crank the heat way up. They'd rather make every room hot and stuffy until everybody's sweating bullets. If you stay at a German BnB, your host is always asking if you're warm enough. If you're used to AC and cool temperatures indoors, it's brutal.

And if you have kids, they're insane. When Deez, Jr. was a baby, I once got bitched out by a German woman because she thought I didn't dress him warmly enough. When he got older and thought he shouldn't wear a coat, he'd say, "Daddy, why do I have to wear a coat? It's not that cold." I'd say, "I know. It's because of society."

 

[mchammer]

 

[mb227]

Vivek isn't wrong.

 

[nashhorn]

Once we go mostly electric they will completely control us. To show us they will cut off our mineral supply. Disappointed to hear musk is building a new plant in China.

 

[Mr. Deez]

If we were sending a lot of our military capacity to Ukraine, then I'd agree with him, but we aren't sending anywhere near enough of our top equipment to significantly diminish our capability. It sounds like a lot when we hear the dollar amount, but in the context of a $700B+ annual budget, it's not a lot.

Not saying we could easily stop China. We can't, but it wouldn't make a big difference if we sent nothing to Ukraine.

 

[nashhorn]

Not going to try and research it but I don’t agree it is frivolous amount of aid because considering the lack of administration concern over the reduction to our Strategic Reserve and the idiotic influx of ‘woke’ culture into the military I cannot imagine anyone overseeing our weapons inventory with intelligent scrutiny.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Not going to try and research it but I don’t agree it is frivolous amount of aid because considering the lack of administration concern over the reduction to our Strategic Reserve and the idiotic influx of ‘woke’ culture into the military I cannot imagine anyone overseeing our weapons inventory with intelligent scrutiny.

It's not frivolous, but is it enough to actually impact our ability to fight China in any meaningful way? No.

 

[nashhorn]

Our biggest liability towards fighting China is Biden et al but I don’t agree we haven’t created our own liabilities. Biden takes his orders from numerous China advisors, plain and simple.

 

[Monahorns]

Why do we need to go to war against China? Is China going to attack America? What benefit to Americans if we "defeat" China?

 

[mchammer]

Why do we need to go to war against China? Is China going to attack America? What benefit to Americans if we "defeat" China?

The only good commie is a dead commie.

 

[guy4321]

Why do we need to go to war against China? Is China going to attack America? What benefit to Americans if we "defeat" China?

We don't have to beat China into submission as you may think Japan 1945. We do need to keep Taiwan out of the mainland's control or the world loses 20% of the semiconductor industry. I believe the US would bomb Taiwan over letting China take it.

 

[Chop]

Back to Ukraine: are they still stuck in a stalemate over there, or what?

 

[Horn6721]

Those leaked Pentagon documents reveal several Western nations with troops in Ukraine. Don't seem to be helping.

 

[Chop]

Those leaked Pentagon documents reveal several Western nations with troops in Ukraine. Don't seem to be helping.

Well, if the French intervene, they'll kick everyone's a$$es.

 

[Horn6721]

This is funny in a chilling way
John Kirby
"there is a small U.S. military presence at the embassy in conjunction with the Defense Attachés office to help us work on accountability of the material that is going in and out of Ukraine," Kirby said, referencing the weapons and other support the U.S. has been sending to Kyiv. "So they're attached to that embassy and to that the defense attache."
US Special Forces in Ukraine at embassy, official confirms, as Pentagon document leak probe heats up

Because you need highly trained warriors to count bullets rockets and tanks.

 

[Monahorns]

The only good commie is a dead commie.

Start with the ones in Austin then. Then Dallas, Houston and on to DC. That will help us all out more than killing Chinese commies. Right now it is US commies against Chinese commies.

 

[Monahorns]

We don't have to beat China into submission as you may think Japan 1945. We do need to keep Taiwan out of the mainland's control or the world loses 20% of the semiconductor industry. I believe the US would bomb Taiwan over letting China take it.

Number 1, the US won't be able to keep Taiwan out of China's hands. We could fight full scale war. It won't save Taiwan. Even the US military war games have said that over and over again.

Number 2, your second statement has no basis in fact. Regardless who rules the island of Formosa there is a market for those semiconductors and they will be sold. Also, if that really is a concern build capability in Taylor, TX to make the same kinds of semiconductors. The designs all come from the US anyway. Put manufacturing in Mexico or Brazil or Thailand or Mississippi. This doesn't justify war.

Number 3, for the US to bomb Taiwan would be an immoral act of murder and worse than anything the Chinese would do to them. It would be an act of sour grapes that wouldn't help Taiwan or America. This isn't logical.

 

[Monahorns]

Back to Ukraine: are they still stuck in a stalemate over there, or what?

That is what I am hearing. Bakhmut is all but taken by Russia but the fighting hasn't stopped. Zelensky has said that if Bakhmut falls completely then it is time to negotiate. Both sides waiting for the mud to dry up before making any kind of mass movements. The winter has been brutal for Ukraine though. The battle of Bakhmut has consisted mainly of artillery fights which Russia has had more materiel to fight with. Still nothing decisive yet.

 

[Chop]

With widespread mass media and (nearly) worldwide availability of a multitude of internet sources, humanity may have reached a milestone.

People in each nation may have, in the aggregate, decided that big ground wars are just not worth it unless a people's very existence is at stake. Mass voluntary enlistments are not what's happening when a nation's leaders lead it into a meat-grinder big ground war. Nobody wants to do that anymore. Even Red China will have trouble drafting millions of these only-child "little prince" types and charging them forward at the front line, like the Korean War or something... Wars are a lot more limited, with a smaller % of ground soldiers, and more reliant upon technology.

Now, if a people's very existence is at stake, that's a different ballgame.

 

[guy4321]

Number 1, the US won't be able to keep Taiwan out of China's hands. We could fight full scale war. It won't save Taiwan. Even the US military war games have said that over and over again.

Number 2, your second statement has no basis in fact. Regardless who rules the island of Formosa there is a market for those semiconductors and they will be sold. Also, if that really is a concern build capability in Taylor, TX to make the same kinds of semiconductors. The designs all come from the US anyway. Put manufacturing in Mexico or Brazil or Thailand or Mississippi. This doesn't justify war.

Number 3, for the US to bomb Taiwan would be an immoral act of murder and worse than anything the Chinese would do to them. It would be an act of sour grapes that wouldn't help Taiwan or America. This isn't logical.

Agree on #1. US likely can't stop China from taking Taiwan.

Not sure what you're labeling as #2. If it's the percent, guess I was too low. It's over 60% per The Economist. It is a concern, but the US government doesn't build semiconductor plants. A loss of 20% to 60% of semiconductors shuts down a lot of industries for a while. Even if the gov convinced private industry to build in the US, it would take decades to replace Taiwan. Saving the Taiwanese people from Chinese invasion is what justifies the war.

On #3, the US would take out the semiconductor plants not randomly bomb the island to kill Taiwanese. That's very logical.

 

[mchammer]

Number 1, the US won't be able to keep Taiwan out of China's hands. We could fight full scale war. It won't save Taiwan. Even the US military war games have said that over and over again.

Number 2, your second statement has no basis in fact. Regardless who rules the island of Formosa there is a market for those semiconductors and they will be sold. Also, if that really is a concern build capability in Taylor, TX to make the same kinds of semiconductors. The designs all come from the US anyway. Put manufacturing in Mexico or Brazil or Thailand or Mississippi. This doesn't justify war.

Number 3, for the US to bomb Taiwan would be an immoral act of murder and worse than anything the Chinese would do to them. It would be an act of sour grapes that wouldn't help Taiwan or America. This isn't logical.

With its attack subs, US can enforce a total embargo on Taiwan. Once the Chinese navy is depleted or driven away, the U.S. can counter attack via landing force if it desires. Then, it becomes a war of attrition in Taiwan. US can win the long war if it wants too.

 

[Horn6721]

THIS is absolutely unacceptable. Biden et all are despicable.
Two Americans killed while fighting in Ukraine, State Department confirms

 

[mchammer]

 

[Monahorns]

With widespread mass media and (nearly) worldwide availability of a multitude of internet sources, humanity may have reached a milestone.

People in each nation may have, in the aggregate, decided that big ground wars are just not worth it unless a people's very existence is at stake. Mass voluntary enlistments are not what's happening when a nation's leaders lead it into a meat-grinder big ground war. Nobody wants to do that anymore. Even Red China will have trouble drafting millions of these only-child "little prince" types and charging them forward at the front line, like the Korean War or something... Wars are a lot more limited, with a smaller % of ground soldiers, and more reliant upon technology.

Now, if a people's very existence is at stake, that's a different ballgame.

Yes. There is a war that needs to happen within the US that I think red-blooded American males would be interested to fight. But they have to be given direction and organization. Until then they will all be playing video games, smoking pot, and watching porn at their mom's house.

 

[Monahorns]

Agree on #1. US likely can't stop China from taking Taiwan.

Not sure what you're labeling as #2. If it's the percent, guess I was too low. It's over 60% per The Economist. It is a concern, but the US government doesn't build semiconductor plants. A loss of 20% to 60% of semiconductors shuts down a lot of industries for a while. Even if the gov convinced private industry to build in the US, it would take decades to replace Taiwan. Saving the Taiwanese people from Chinese invasion is what justifies the war.

On #3, the US would take out the semiconductor plants not randomly bomb the island to kill Taiwanese. That's very logical.

On #2 why do you assume that the semiconductors coming out of Taiwan would cease to exist if China took them over? China would want to sell those same semiconductors so they could claim it on their GDP. Do you disagree with that? If so, why? Plus you already admitted the US can't win that war so there is nothing that justifies waging it.

For #3, innocent people would die. They always do in situations like this. You are talking about a military that drone struck a family in Afghanistan as the US military was leaving. The guy actually was a social worker helping the US military while we were there. But he was killed along with his children. Precise bombing is a myth.

But let's assume that no one would die. Only the factories would be destroyed. That is an act of terrorism. Bombing a highly valuable facility? You would ruin the lives of all the people who worked there. You would hurt all the companies that are customers. You would hurt pretty much every American who buys electronics that use those chips. If cutting off your nose to spite your face is logical, then I guess it is logical. I think it is foolish.

 

[Monahorns]

With its attack subs, US can enforce a total embargo on Taiwan. Once the Chinese navy is depleted or driven away, the U.S. can counter attack via landing force if it desires. Then, it becomes a war of attrition in Taiwan. US can win the long war if it wants too.

Not according to the war gaming done in the Pentagon. Plus we all become poorer or dead in the process.

 

[mchammer]

Not according to the war gaming done in the Pentagon. Plus we all become poorer or dead in the process.

They never tell you about the attack subs for a reason. Second, they don’t war game wars of attrition.

 

[guy4321]

THIS is absolutely unacceptable. Biden et all are despicable.
Two Americans killed while fighting in Ukraine, State Department confirms

Not following how that's Biden's fault. It seems like these two Americans chose to fight in Ukraine?

On #2 why do you assume that the semiconductors coming out of Taiwan would cease to exist if China took them over? China would want to sell those same semiconductors so they could claim it on their GDP. Do you disagree with that? If so, why? Plus you already admitted the US can't win that war so there is nothing that justifies waging it.

For #3, innocent people would die. They always do in situations like this. You are talking about a military that drone struck a family in Afghanistan as the US military was leaving. The guy actually was a social worker helping the US military while we were there. But he was killed along with his children. Precise bombing is a myth.

But let's assume that no one would die. Only the factories would be destroyed. That is an act of terrorism. Bombing a highly valuable facility? You would ruin the lives of all the people who worked there. You would hurt all the companies that are customers. You would hurt pretty much every American who buys electronics that use those chips. If cutting off your nose to spite your face is logical, then I guess it is logical. I think it is foolish.

I don't assume semiconductor manufacturing would cease. Absolutely China wants them. World leaders don't want China in control of that much semiconductor manufacturing and neither should anyone who hates communism. To state the justification again, it's to help the Taiwanese against an invader.

In this scenario people would die, and they already are with the Chinese invasion.

Why do you want China to have so much control of the industry vs making them re-build it while Westerners are building it too?

 

[Monahorns]

They never tell you about the attack subs for a reason. Second, they don’t war game wars of attrition.

How do you know that?

Also, the war of attrition didn't work well with Afghanistan or Iraq. How are we going to win against a much bigger and better army?

 

[mchammer]

How do you know that?

Also, the war of attrition didn't work well with Afghanistan or Iraq. How are we going to win against a much bigger and better army?

Anything beyond a few weeks or months is impossible to war game.