Trump has lost ability to make deals

I35 said:
Here’s the breakdown.

China: They charge 20% capital gains tax. But remember things are cheap in China so the 20% doesn’t hit their bottom line near as hard as 20% in America. China charges in coming American products ranging from 25 to 40%. So basically we can’t afford to deal with China and their high cost of taxes with our products. So not much money is entering the US economy from China.

USA: we went from Obama’s corporate gains tax of 35% to Trump’s gains tax of 21%. America charges in coming products from China at a tax rate most from 0% to 6% and in some instances it can get as high as 12%. So some American companies moved their factors to other countries including China then make their product with cheap labor then will bring it back to the US to sale and avoid paying the Obama’s corporate tax rate of 35%. Trump dropped it to 21% and then threatened the American businesses in Canada, Mexico, China, and other countries that we would levy a very high tax to bring their product into the USA. He never had to because they started coming back.

Not much money is hardly entering the US economy from China, but the US being the biggest consumers in the world sends a ton of money to China. So really China is receiving all the benefits from our trade deal. Now Trump is laying the hammer with tariffs and China will suffer the most. Yes we will pay some higher prices for products now but it’s so worth it in the long run.

We have to ask the question why did business move out of the US to begin with? What incentivized these companies to turn their back on the American workers? We actually know why, but what I don’t understand is why our leaders allowed this to happened and nobody before Trump did anything about it.
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This may be the most logical post I’ve ever seen from you. I’ll give my opinion on the last paragraph.

Q: Why and what incentives led to corporate entities moving capital and jobs out of the US?
A: Greed and profit. Lower costs and a higher bottom line.

Q: Why did our leaders let it happen?
A: Our leaders don’t work for us. They are owned by and work for their corporate sponsors. It’s that simple.
 
BrntOrngStmpeDe said:
I think he has looked like a dope with N. Korea and the wall (specifically as it pertains to Mexico paying for it). I think he has looked like a dope with NAFTA and Syria and Russia.

I'm not saying that NAFTA shouldn't be modified, I'm saying his approach of proclaiming his "twitter-redlines" and then backing off makes him look like a dope.

I'm saying his childish boasting of what will and won't happen on twitter only to back off later makes him look like a dope.
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By all means, let us know the correct policies to adopt regarding NAFTA, Syria, North Korea and Russia. We can send them to the administration. I'm sure Pompeo and gang would appreciate your insight.
 
I think Trump is a negotiator. To mock a person for bluster prior to negotiations is a bit silly don't you think? You have to give a strong front. I think this is fundamental. You have to rattle your saber.

Here's what I think is dopey in the sense of those who think these things are for the good of America and not for political gain:

All the current impeachment talk is an attempt at a political coup. The Dems are not governing at all. It's patently obvious. Their entire platform is campaigning. They have no ideas except pie in the sky freebie programs such as undefinable levels of socialism and reparations. They campaign on open borders, sanctuary cities (but don't send the illegals to sanctuary cities), the abolishment of ICE, allowing illegals to vote and receive the support of AMERICAN TAXPAYER DOLLARS. They shriek insults about racism and every other ism. They have nothing except to inflame the hearts and minds of those who are susceptible to it. They want to raise taxes because that's how they divy up the party favors. The special prosecutor failed to find any evidence of a high crime or misdemeanor. Had he, it would have been four inch headlines on the front page of the New York Times and breaking news across the land. There was nothing of the kind. So now instead of being investigated by a purported unbiased third party it's back in the hands of partisan ruthless Machiavellians who cannot be counted on to be fair, balanced, unbiased and doing what's right for America. Instead we are witness to political quackery (AOC, Kamala, Booker, Mr. O'Rourke etc) built upon virtue signaling and not one shred of statesmanship or comment about foreign policy or the $20 Trillion national debt (doubled under Obama).
 
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bystander said:
I think Trump is a negotiator. To mock a person for bluster prior to negotiations is a bit silly don't you think? You have to give a strong front. I think this is fundamental. You have to rattle your saber.
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Rattling your saber is an understatement. What Trump does in effect, is to take your relatives hostage, and then ask you to come to the table and negotiate. Sanctions, breaking agreements, and making military threats is the modus operandi Trump is using in the attempt to force one-on-one negotiations with a variety of nations. However, this approach is creating global animosity against the US and key players are beginning to align with each other to oppose the US. Not only is there cooperation between China and Russia, but Spain is pulling away from the US in Venezuela, Germany is flaunting Trump’s demands of buying energy from Russia, Turkey will purchase the Russian S-400 system from Russia and continue purchasing oil from Iran.
 
People are trying to tie money laundering to Trump. He has a large building in Panama and some very bad people bought up the condos. There is zero evidence that Trump knew who they were or that they had any ties to him or leverage. But the fanatics scream, "Money laundering and Trump! Money laundering and Trump" in order to create enough smoke to divert from the facts. It's the same with other international business real estate deals.

If you think he personally should have thoroughly vetted every offer and turned them down then think you are naive or being too idealistic in order to attack him.
 
bystander said:
People are trying to tie money laundering to Trump. He has a large building in Panama and some very bad people bought up the condos. There is zero evidence that Trump knew who they were or that they had any ties to him or leverage. But the fanatics scream, "Money laundering and Trump! Money laundering and Trump" in order to create enough smoke to divert from the facts. It's the same with other international business real estate deals.

If you think he personally should have thoroughly vetted every offer and turned them down then think you are naive or being too idealistic in order to attack him.
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Very strong circumstantial evidence against Trump. I believe he’s a criminal, but convicting him on anything looks unlikely. Hillary is far worse and no charges were ever brought up against her either.

 
Not much money is hardly entering the US economy from China, but the US being the biggest consumers in the world sends a ton of money to China. So really China is receiving all the benefits from our trade deal. Now Trump is laying the hammer with tariffs and China will suffer the most. Yes we will pay some higher prices for products now but it’s so worth it in the long run.
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Not much money is hardly entering my bank account from HEB... So really HEB is receiving all the benefits from our trade deal.

By the way, tariffs hurt you and me worse than China. So Trump is laying the hammer to us. You have no idea what the long run will be.
 
If we all agree our current deals with China hurt us and will continue to
How do you change that?
So far no one has offered a better way than what Trump is trying.
 
Horn6721 said:
If we all agree our current deals with China hurt us and will continue to
How do you change that?
So far no one has offered a better way than what Trump is trying.
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I35 actually to touched on one aspect. US companies that move their production out of the country should be taxed at a high rate (and not allowed to hoard it tax free like Apple and others have done). Of course, Wall Street would be very opposed as profits would fall. Because we chose NOT to do this, not only were jobs lost, but technology eventually flowed to China. Now they are beginning to lead in the technology fields. The US sacrificed long term stability for short term (maybe two decades) of profits which benefitted only Wall Street and high level corporate executives.
 
Monahorns said:
Not much money is hardly entering my bank account from HEB... So really HEB is receiving all the benefits from our trade deal.

By the way, tariffs hurt you and me worse than China. So Trump is laying the hammer to us. You have no idea what the long run will be.
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You don’t know how much HEB is helping our communities and perhaps helping your pocket book. Maybe more than you know. If HEB was in China and not the USA then you would be on to something. But HEB hires many many employees “here” in the US who receive paychecks, and transfers their money to other Accts and on and on. I am a gym owner and one of my favorite members is a wine taster for HEB. So each month I’m receiving money that help pay my bills. Also my GF’s son is a programmer for HEB with a new baby which all of us that shop there pays his salary so he can feed his American Baby. The money I give to HEB doesn’t leave our country.

I’m not sure how you see the tariffs hurting us more than China when they are the ones benefitting the most. We make choices everyday if we want to buy something or not due to cost. China can’t replace the US money but we can either buy at a higher cost or choose not to.
 
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Tariffs helped the colonies protect and grow industry in the early days of this country. Tariffs kept Japan’s automobile industry and electronics industry afloat when they made inferior products. Eventually they got it right and became world leaders. One objective for imposing a tariff is to protect an industry you want to develop. The trade off is that consumer prices rise. Sometimes it’s worth it. Sometimes not.
 
A major difference today from decades and centuries ago is that Capital is mobile. If Henry Ford had wanted to shut down operations in Detroit and relocate production in the third world, he would not have been able to do so. There would never have been a great American middle class if globalization had been achieved a century ago. This process of globalization or neoliberalism is the current model. There are winners and losers. Trump is trying to dismantle it I think. The trade imbalances and wealth inequalities will eventually bring it down even if Trump fails to. The losers are increasingly growing in number and the winners are increasingly wealthy.
 
Where is the trade war going between the US and China? It will likely result in an economic divorce and geopolitical battle. Interesting video.

 
I35, I am not talking about HEB helping someone else. I am talking about my trade balance with them. I give them money. They don't give me any back. Of course, I get the goods I want from them. That is the point. I get what I want from them, the same way we get things from China we want.

Yes, we could get more benefit if they didn't have tariffs on imports from the US. But US tariffs on Chinese goods mean we all pay more for most of what we buy. China is actively increasing trade around the world. They will not be hurt as much as you think. Plus, that have a totalitarian government which means they don't care how much the US tariffs hurt their citizens. Trump has to worry about how US citizens are affected because he only has 1 more year until a new election.

Now. Does that mean there is no chance of a positive outcome from the Trump tariffs? Of course there is. I hope there is. But no one should be confident that the US has leverage in this situation. We don't.
 
Musburger1 said:
Where is the trade war going between the US and China? It will likely result in an economic divorce and geopolitical battle. Interesting video.

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That is interesting. I actually wouldn’t lose any sleep if the US and China ended the relationship with trade. I say we work with Mexico as much as possible and help give them more jobs and hopefully stimulate their economy so their incentive to leave that country for the US would lower. They won’t be able to do all the products and the amount of products, but make trades with as much as they can do and then reach out to the rest of the world and ourselves for the rest. Money talks and we have more than the EU, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th riches nations all put together. So we don’t have to worry about other countries not wanting to do business with us. China would hurt very bad. It’s like looking at the girlfriend they broke up with and realizing they messed up. I’m sure there are some down falls to this for us as well but not even close to how it will affect them.
 
Monahorns said:
I35, I am not talking about HEB helping someone else. I am talking about my trade balance with them. I give them money. They don't give me any back. Of course, I get the goods I want from them. That is the point. I get what I want from them, the same way we get things from China we want.

Yes, we could get more benefit if they didn't have tariffs on imports from the US. But US tariffs on Chinese goods mean we all pay more for most of what we buy. China is actively increasing trade around the world. They will not be hurt as much as you think. Plus, that have a totalitarian government which means they don't care how much the US tariffs hurt their citizens. Trump has to worry about how US citizens are affected because he only has 1 more year until a new election.

Now. Does that mean there is no chance of a positive outcome from the Trump tariffs? Of course there is. I hope there is. But no one should be confident that the US has leverage in this situation. We don't.
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Monahans, China’s biggest near term problem may turn out to be environmental. The main source of protein in China is pork, and China is in the process of liquidating millions of pigs due to an outbreak of some kind of pig disease.
China's pig disease outbreak pushes up global pork prices

On top of that, the northeastern part of China will suffer crop losses due to drought (also effecting North Korea). This is a big deal to a country that has to import food.

But back to trade. The problems which initiated weren’t so much because China organically began manufacturing all these products to sell to Americans. What happened was American corporations moved their facilities to China and then continued to sell them to Americans. Over time the down stream companies migrated to China, and the technologies they possessed were shared (or in many cases stolen) thus allowing Chinese run companies to emerge and now compete with the American multinational companies.

In the old days, businesses in country A produced one thing, while businesses in country B another, and the two countries engaged in trade. But with the onset of globalization, the new model was that the businesses in Country A would simply move their factory to country B to cut costs. Technology and modern “free trade” deals enabled capital to shed nationality and go global.
 
Monahorns said:
I35, I am not talking about HEB helping someone else. I am talking about my trade balance with them. I give them money. They don't give me any back. Of course, I get the goods I want from them. That is the point. I get what I want from them, the same way we get things from China we want.

Yes, we could get more benefit if they didn't have tariffs on imports from the US. But US tariffs on Chinese goods mean we all pay more for most of what we buy. China is actively increasing trade around the world. They will not be hurt as much as you think. Plus, that have a totalitarian government which means they don't care how much the US tariffs hurt their citizens. Trump has to worry about how US citizens are affected because he only has 1 more year until a new election.

Now. Does that mean there is no chance of a positive outcome from the Trump tariffs? Of course there is. I hope there is. But no one should be confident that the US has leverage in this situation. We don't.
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I think you are under-estimating the money we pour into China. Like I said in the other post, just for China to reach US amount of money it would take the top five markets outside of the US in the world to match our money. We are the biggest consumers by far and it’s not even close.

I’m not sure how you don’t get what I’m saying about HEB. Everyone in a America that makes money has a service to offer. It could be a dentist, a gym owner like myself, an HEB check girl. Money is exchanging hands everyday over and over again. The money that goes to China we never see again. So follow me here. Let’s say you are a divorce attorney. You buy HEB Product> HEB pays employee> Employee now has money for gym Membership> Gym owner needs an attorney for his divorce>hires you to represent him. That money made its way back to you. Now HEB is just a small fraction of so many businesses and services offered throughout the US, but it simulates the US economy close to 100% more than China % wise. But we as US consumers all are on the same team and pay each other for services we provide. All of us earned money to spend. If that money leaves the country to China it only stimulates china’s economy and because of the taxes so high for our products to be sold there we won’t get that money back. The cost of things that we got from China goes up in price, but we are talking like a sales tax our state charges us when we buy something vs people earning a living.
 
Horn6721 said:
Krikey it is complicated
but I bet we all agree it has to change??
The trillion dollar question is how?
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The aftermath of a breakoff between the US and China is unpredictable; we can only hope a hot war isn’t a result.

Based on the analysis I’ve read which makes the most sense to me, is that the Eurasian land mass will become more and more a confrontation zone between the US/western allies and China/Russia. India, Pakistan, Turkey, and half a dozen ‘Stan countries are caught up in the middle as to which economic zone of influence they conduct business. The US will continue to use a combination of sanctions, military threat, and proxies (Wahhabi based jihadists) to pressure countries to stay within the US zone. China and Russia will likewise compete by offering help with infrastructure (high speed rail), and weapons (Russian S-400 etc.). Both sides will offer bribes to leaders, and offer their technology as carrots. This is why the Apple vs Haiwei battle for supremacy is such a crucial issue.
 
But back to trade. The problems which initiated weren’t so much because China organically began manufacturing all these products to sell to Americans. What happened was American corporations moved their facilities to China and then continued to sell them to Americans. Over time the down stream companies migrated to China, and the technologies they possessed were shared (or in many cases stolen) thus allowing Chinese run companies to emerge and now compete with the American multinational companies.

In the old days, businesses in country A produced one thing, while businesses in country B another, and the two countries engaged in trade. But with the onset of globalization, the new model was that the businesses in Country A would simply move their factory to country B to cut costs. Technology and modern “free trade” deals enabled capital to shed nationality and go global.
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Your history is accurate, but I don't agree with your assessment of what it means.

Multiple countries can and do produce similar goods. There is no rule that country A can only manufacture good X and country B can only manufacture good Y. There are multiple corporations, small businesses, and individuals who compete all over the world. That will always be the case unless governments step in with larger and larger restrictions, which is what a tariff is the start of.

The solution to China's trade restrictions to the US, is to by pass them. Invest in companies who will compete with Chinese companies. Move factories to other countries that are even less cost and will trade for freely with us.
 
The money that goes to China we never see again.
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That actually isn't true. The US$ we send to China are used for 3 things that benefit the US: 1) China exchanges those $s to others who use them to buy US goods, 2) Chinese companies spend it on US capital goods, 3) Chinese buy US assets.

Things 1) and 3) are calculating in trade figures while 2) would some of the time. I am not exactly sure how all that is done. But they do buy capital goods from the US.
 
But we as US consumers all are on the same team and pay each other for services we provide. All of us earned money to spend. If that money leaves the country to China it only stimulates china’s economy and because of the taxes so high for our products to be sold there we won’t get that money back.
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Trade connects all participants into the team. In some ways we are partnering with the Chinese through trade. We both receive benefits from the trade. The more free that trade the more that statement is true. That doesn't mean China=US or we have the exact same interests as them, but trade is a win-win transaction by definition.

Here is where I think some of the confusion exists. Wealth =/= money. Wealth= goods+services received. When we import something we are getting the wealth not the exporter. They are merely getting the medium of exchange for future wealth.

As I explained above, those US$'s don't disappear into a Chinese black hole. China uses those $s in different ways that come back to the US. There is much more to the economy than consumer goods. I even forgot a 4th thing, 4) China loans $s to the US government. Now that gets tricky and I would prefer the US govt balance their accounts, but the US govt does receive benefit from it.
 
Monahorns said:
The solution to China's trade restrictions to the US, is to by pass them. Invest in companies who will compete with Chinese companies. Move factories to other countries that are even less cost and will trade for freely with us.
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Can you explain your last sentence i.e. moving factories to other countries that are even less cost...

Seems like that’s what got us into the whole predicament we are in now. How is more of the same the answer to get out off the problem?
 
iatrogenic said:
By all means, let us know the correct policies to adopt regarding NAFTA, Syria, North Korea and Russia. We can send them to the administration. I'm sure Pompeo and gang would appreciate your insight.
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On NAFTA, he should he kept his big mouth shut while the experienced folks were working it out.
On Syria, he should have kept his big mouth shut and listened to the actual military minds and foreign policy experts.
On North Korea he should have kept his big mouth shut because it was always a fools errand with an incredibly low probability of success.
On Russia, he should have kept his big mouth shut so Putin wouldn't have filled it with his Johnson.
 
bystander said:
I think Trump is a negotiator. To mock a person for bluster prior to negotiations is a bit silly don't you think? You have to give a strong front. I think this is fundamental. You have to rattle your saber.

Here's what I think is dopey in the sense of those who think these things are for the good of America and not for political gain:

All the current impeachment talk is an attempt at a political coup. The Dems are not governing at all. It's patently obvious. Their entire platform is campaigning. They have no ideas except pie in the sky freebie programs such as undefinable levels of socialism and reparations. They campaign on open borders, sanctuary cities (but don't send the illegals to sanctuary cities), the abolishment of ICE, allowing illegals to vote and receive the support of AMERICAN TAXPAYER DOLLARS. They shriek insults about racism and every other ism. They have nothing except to inflame the hearts and minds of those who are susceptible to it. They want to raise taxes because that's how they divy up the party favors. The special prosecutor failed to find any evidence of a high crime or misdemeanor. Had he, it would have been four inch headlines on the front page of the New York Times and breaking news across the land. There was nothing of the kind. So now instead of being investigated by a purported unbiased third party it's back in the hands of partisan ruthless Machiavellians who cannot be counted on to be fair, balanced, unbiased and doing what's right for America. Instead we are witness to political quackery (AOC, Kamala, Booker, Mr. O'Rourke etc) built upon virtue signaling and not one shred of statesmanship or comment about foreign policy or the $20 Trillion national debt (doubled under Obama).
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I agree about the Dems but wholeheartedly disagree about negotiating. The occasional boast and sabre rattling might work but when you use that at every turn, people tend to blow you off and....you look like a dope.
 
In my mind a bad republican leader is better than a good democrat almost every day of the week because our politics are largely driven by the party, but in my opinion we have exactly that...a bad republican. I don't think trump has ever been who he claimed to be personally, financially, etc.

I think he has pursued the right goals about 80% of the time. Pursued those goals with the right strategy about 50% of the time and pursued those goals with the right tactics about 10% of the time. I think he is terrible as a "leader". What kind of guy ends up in conflict with 80% of the people he hired? His ego is so big, he can't get out of his own way.

His big saving grace was that he was probably the guy best suited to lay into HRC and her many faults. He, more than any other person running, was willing and able to go low and stay low. That was probably what it was going to take given the tail wind the media provided HRC. So for that, he has my thanks, if not admiration...but that doesn't change my opinion of him. If there was a way to vote someone else as GOP president, I'd do it in a heartbeat...but alas...that ain't the way it works.
 
BrntOrngStmpeDe said:
On NAFTA, he should he kept his big mouth shut while the experienced folks were working it out.
On Syria, he should have kept his big mouth shut and listened to the actual military minds and foreign policy experts.
On North Korea he should have kept his big mouth shut because it was always a fools errand with an incredibly low probability of success.
On Russia, he should have kept his big mouth shut so Putin wouldn't have filled it with his Johnson.
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Very insightful. Thanks.
 
I35 said:
Yes we will pay some higher prices for products now but it’s so worth it in the long run.
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this!

We, the WalMart consumer, have become so accustomed to dirt cheap stuff ... and we fail to realize we are getting these deals on the backs of slave labor in China.

Those who fail to realize this are the very ones who scream about negro slavery 150 years ago and how "reparations" are due.

Will they similarly "pony-up" for reparations to the chinese factory worker???

Someone said the GOP bristles about the tariff or something like that ... and that's true. The tariff is about the ONLY proper economic policy the democrats have had; until Trump campaigned on 'em ... and is implementing. Now the democrats howl.

This is instructive. it's all about the party, the nation be damned.
 
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