Time to Pick the Season - Does History Repeat?

Gladius&Pilum said:
3-4 losses should be the expectation. This is year-1 of a new staff. It takes time to establish a new culture. Until it is established, the old culture will rear its head from time to time. That means bone headed mistakes and costly turnovers will likely snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at least once this year.

The tune-up game to start the season has turned out to be a team that beat the Big12 runner-up like a drum and got paid hundreds of thousands to do it. On top of that, they return 90% of their starters from last year and have coaching continuity. I imagine ULALA has been installing the game plan for UT since the spring. Meanwhile, Sark has been working to install his offense/defense and learn his personnel. Toss Up

Arkansas does not play like Arkansas when they go up against A&M. Expect that same (or greater) level of intensity when UT rolls into Fayetteville. Though talent-deficient, they are well coached and will be looking to tear UT a new one. The crowd will be rabid. Though they haven't shared a conference with UT since 1991, Hogville.com has a horns down emoji among its selection on the forums and they are used often. This will be a dog fight. Toss Up

The MOB will win halftime. Other than that, UT will have little trouble with the Owls. Blowout Win

Texas Tech will be the first chance to see how the Big12 refs handle UT games. Tech is dog plop... refrigerated dog plop at that. The Tech fans will be at their livid best for the game but it's in ATX, so the energy will not carry over to the Red Raiders. I expect there will not be sufficient opportunity for the refs to swing this game. Two-Score Win

TCU shouldn't be a trap game given their 7-2 record against UT since joining the Big12, but with OU looming, it just might be. Patterson has made a living off of beating UT. TCU has plenty of talent and the Sweatster has shown he knows how to use it. This will be the first game where the refs really stick it to UT. Toss Up

OU is loaded. UT is rebuilding. OU basically has the deed to the Cotton Bowl now and UT is just a tenant. First quarter will be close thanks to emotion. After that it's all downhill. Blowout Loss

oSu has had considerable success in Austin. Gundy seems to do his best coaching against UT and his worst against OU. Refs will again show a preference for the opponent. Exhausted from the emotion of the RRR, Herman-culture will bubble up and bite UT. One-Score Loss

Baylor is Tech with a bigger name coach. The game is in Waco and will be UT's first Big12 road game. It will be closer than it should be as the players and crowd will be fully amped for this one. In the end, Baylor is still Baylor. One-Score Win

November in Ames. oSu can attest to the weirdness of that venue. Likely a night game as well. Matt Campbell is the real deal. So is the RB. UT starts to gel in the 2nd half but it's too little too late. One-Score Loss

Jayhawks score 3-pointers all day, unfortunately it won't be in Phog-Allen. Team starts to hit stride. Blowout Winn

The Mountaineers are an enigma. But they play MUCH better in Morgantown. Refs again show up for the opponent. UT should wipe the field with WV, but can't get out of their own way. Toss Up

Ding Dong the Purple Wizard is gone. Back in the cozy confines of DKR, UT says "eff the refs" and puts a beat-down on the Wildcats. As much as they want to make UT pay for their precarious future, they are resigned to their fate. Blowout Win

Sure Wins - 4
Likely Wins - 1
Toss Ups - 4
Likely Losses - 2
Sure Losses - 1

Ceiling is 9-3
Basement is a 2010 type season 5-7
Click to expand...
^^^ Prophetic
 
Gladius&Pilum said:
3-4 losses should be the expectation. This is year-1 of a new staff. It takes time to establish a new culture. Until it is established, the old culture will rear its head from time to time. That means bone headed mistakes and costly turnovers will likely snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at least once this year.

The tune-up game to start the season has turned out to be a team that beat the Big12 runner-up like a drum and got paid hundreds of thousands to do it. On top of that, they return 90% of their starters from last year and have coaching continuity. I imagine ULALA has been installing the game plan for UT since the spring. Meanwhile, Sark has been working to install his offense/defense and learn his personnel. Toss Up

Arkansas does not play like Arkansas when they go up against A&M. Expect that same (or greater) level of intensity when UT rolls into Fayetteville. Though talent-deficient, they are well coached and will be looking to tear UT a new one. The crowd will be rabid. Though they haven't shared a conference with UT since 1991, Hogville.com has a horns down emoji among its selection on the forums and they are used often. This will be a dog fight. Toss Up

The MOB will win halftime. Other than that, UT will have little trouble with the Owls. Blowout Win

Texas Tech will be the first chance to see how the Big12 refs handle UT games. Tech is dog plop... refrigerated dog plop at that. The Tech fans will be at their livid best for the game but it's in ATX, so the energy will not carry over to the Red Raiders. I expect there will not be sufficient opportunity for the refs to swing this game. Two-Score Win

TCU shouldn't be a trap game given their 7-2 record against UT since joining the Big12, but with OU looming, it just might be. Patterson has made a living off of beating UT. TCU has plenty of talent and the Sweatster has shown he knows how to use it. This will be the first game where the refs really stick it to UT. Toss Up

OU is loaded. UT is rebuilding. OU basically has the deed to the Cotton Bowl now and UT is just a tenant. First quarter will be close thanks to emotion. After that it's all downhill. Blowout Loss

oSu has had considerable success in Austin. Gundy seems to do his best coaching against UT and his worst against OU. Refs will again show a preference for the opponent. Exhausted from the emotion of the RRR, Herman-culture will bubble up and bite UT. One-Score Loss

Baylor is Tech with a bigger name coach. The game is in Waco and will be UT's first Big12 road game. It will be closer than it should be as the players and crowd will be fully amped for this one. In the end, Baylor is still Baylor. One-Score Win

November in Ames. oSu can attest to the weirdness of that venue. Likely a night game as well. Matt Campbell is the real deal. So is the RB. UT starts to gel in the 2nd half but it's too little too late. One-Score Loss

Jayhawks score 3-pointers all day, unfortunately it won't be in Phog-Allen. Team starts to hit stride. Blowout Winn

The Mountaineers are an enigma. But they play MUCH better in Morgantown. Refs again show up for the opponent. UT should wipe the field with WV, but can't get out of their own way. Toss Up

Ding Dong the Purple Wizard is gone. Back in the cozy confines of DKR, UT says "eff the refs" and puts a beat-down on the Wildcats. As much as they want to make UT pay for their precarious future, they are resigned to their fate. Blowout Win

Sure Wins - 4
Likely Wins - 1
Toss Ups - 4
Likely Losses - 2
Sure Losses - 1

Ceiling is 9-3
Basement is a 2010 type season 5-7
Click to expand...

I continue to stand by this assessment. :thumbup:
 
I thought 8-4 was the worst. But after seeing how poorly this team performs in the second half and especially in the 4th quarter, I’m going 7-5 as the most likely and hopefully no worse than 6-6.
 
I see potential losses to WVU, KSU and ISU with a victory over Kansas all but guaranteed. I have zero confidence that we win any of the others. However, I think somehow we pull at least once of those out and maybe two. That would make us 6-6. But I'm going to see what it feels like to be an optimist with this team and settle on 7-5. Wow, I just said that out loud. Texas and 7-5 and optimist in the same sentence. Sad.
 
5-7, one more win over KU will be hard fought. No way they win at ISU or WV. KSU QB and little RB will DESTROY our defense. Glad there will no bowl game, these guys don't deserve it until proven otherwise.
 
Hillcityhorn said:
5-7, one more win over KU will be hard fought. No way they win at ISU or WV. KSU QB and little RB will DESTROY our defense. Glad there will no bowl game, these guys don't deserve it until proven otherwise.
Click to expand...

The power of negative expectations. Kinda like the reverse of saying "Texas is back!"
 
With our lack of anything resembling a pass rush, I think Purdy will have a field day this Saturday (even though I think he's overrated and I picked the Horns to win in the other thread because, well, I have to...), and a road game at WV doesn't look or feel like a win at this point. That leaves the Kansas schools. I don't feel confident against KSU and while the Jayhawks should be a gimme I don't think there is such a thing this season.

6-6 with a winnable Texas Bowl bid feels like the ceiling, and 5-7 feels a little more realistic. Wow, I just said that... :facepalm:
 
Hillcityhorn said:
5-7, one more win over KU will be hard fought. No way they win at ISU or WV. KSU QB and little RB will DESTROY our defense. Glad there will no bowl game, these guys don't deserve it until proven otherwise.
Click to expand...
But if Sark will actually go all gas the whole game then we have a chance at 8-4.
What i mean is this, using the pass to set up the run. Play action fakes, bootlegs, getting the ball to the Robinsons out in the flat, actually using Keilan's skills and playing uptempo, not giving their defense time to plan. Then the occasional run. Oh a trick play like a Roschon pass or a tim tebow-like dump pass over the LOS to a tall Wiley may be effectual. And Thompson needs to move the chains with his legs when he gets the opportunity.

Of course scoring quickly and often puts pressure on our defense but i will take it. Sure, it may be a recipe for losing in the fourth but perhaps we hang on for a win this time.
 
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Pomspoms said:
But if Sark will actually go all gas the whole game then we have a chance at 8-4.
What i mean is this, using the pass to set up the run. Play action fakes, bootlegs, getting the ball to the Robinsons out in the flat, actually using Keilan's skills and playing uptempo, not giving their defense time to plan. Then the occasional run. Oh a trick play like a Roschon pass or a tim tebow-like dump pass over the LOS to a tall Wiley may be effectual. And Thompson needs to move the chains with his legs when he gets the opportunity.

Of course scoring quickly and often puts pressure on our defense but i will take it. Sure, it may be a recipe for losing in the fourth but perhaps we hang on for a win this time.
Click to expand...
I like your offensive game planning, but the last 3 games as an indicator of future 2nd half game planning, don't see it happening, so no way we win out. I would love to have to eat crow, but nothing from this team shows confidence.
 
MajorRules00 said:
I predict we win out. 8-4 regular season.
Click to expand...
No way, have you watched how they give up. Right when there is adversity, they fold every, f'n time. 5-7 is where they are heading. How do they win at WVU? They have a great back that wants to make up for last year( he said it during preseason big12 media days.) Plus I watched him score like 4TDS at TCU) Texas D isn't deep enough and/or have the will to stop anyone for 4 qtrs, so what will KSU QB and Deuce Vaughn do? Probably have career days. The KU QB has wheels and will give our D fits. These guys have zero heart, maybe there's a few that do, but they aren't vocal about or they're not allowed to. One would think that the Matt Campbell comments after last year's win in Austin, could be a motivation, but they don't care, you'll see on Saturday, 48-13 ISU.
 
Hillcityhorn said:
I like your offensive game planning, but the last 3 games as an indicator of future 2nd half game planning, don't see it happening, so no way we win out. I would love to have to eat crow, but nothing from this team shows confidence.
Click to expand...
I believe there was a thread around here with a recipe for crow should it become necessary...
 
Hillcityhorn said:
No way, have you watched how they give up. Right when there is adversity, they fold every, f'n time. 5-7 is where they are heading. How do they win at WVU? They have a great back that wants to make up for last year( he said it during preseason big12 media days.) Plus I watched him score like 4TDS at TCU) Texas D isn't deep enough and/or have the will to stop anyone for 4 qtrs, so what will KSU QB and Deuce Vaughn do? Probably have career days. The KU QB has wheels and will give our D fits. These guys have zero heart, maybe there's a few that do, but they aren't vocal about or they're not allowed to. One would think that the Matt Campbell comments after last year's win in Austin, could be a motivation, but they don't care, you'll see on Saturday, 48-13 ISU.
Click to expand...

I'm sensing a lot of fragility on the board.

Let's talk common sense: Had we lost in blowouts to OU, OSU, and BU, I would agree with the Eeyores. But...we didn't. As has been noted to the point of exhaustion, we "should have" won all three of those games. None of the remaining opponents are as good as OU. Nor are they as good as OSU or BU. So predicting a nose dive is not only illogical...but a little bit insane as well.

I will pray for the strength for Longhorn Nation.
 
Common sense, eh?

When this team had a lot to play for, it blew the leads. What have you seen that makes you think this team will perform at a high level with nothing more than maybe a craptastic Bowl on the line?
 
horninchicago said:
When this team had a lot to play for, it blew the leads. What have you seen that makes you think this team will perform at a high level with nothing more than maybe a craptastic Bowl on the line?
Click to expand...

Athletes also play for: school pride, individual pride, personal ambition, a chance for more playing time, NFL scouts, a better situation next year, etc. So there's still a lot on the line for these young men.
 
MajorRules00 said:
Athletes also play for: school pride, individual pride, personal ambition, a chance for more playing time, NFL scouts, a better situation next year, etc. So there's still a lot on the line for these young men.
Click to expand...
Yeah...okay.

Seems odd to rate my comment above as "Poop" vs. "Disagree" if that is what you are doing.
 
Interesting discussion on local sports talk this morning regarding the recruiting class of 2019 and the impact on current results. Out of 26 players who signed in what was ranked the #3 class in the nation, 9 are gone via transfer, 3 never played for various reasons, and out of the remaining 14 you have arguably 2-3 impactful contributors with the rest split between the occasional play here and there and never getting off the bench. The conversation centered around the gap that class has left, almost like missing an entire year and then looking at your roster trying to find quality starters and then build depth.

They weren't making excuses, but presenting an observation I hadn't realized. Check it out:

Bru McCoy - ATH - Never played
Jordan Whittington - ATH - Strong contributor (now hurt)
Kenyatta Watson - CB - Gone
Marques Caldwell - CB - Bench
Jacoby Jones - DE - Strong contributor (now hurt)
Myron Warren - DE - Bench
Peter Mpagi - DE - Gone
T'Vondre Sweat - DE - In DL rotation
Caleb Johnson - LB - Gone
David Gbenda - LB - Past contributor
De'Gabriel Floyd - LB - Never played
Juwan Mitchell - LB - Gone
Marcus Tillman - LB - Past contributor
Isaiah Hookfin - OT - Bench
Javonne Shepherd - OT - Gone
Tyler Johnson - OT - Starts but weakest link on OL?
Willie Tyler - OT - Gone
Roschon Johnson - QB (now RB) - Strong contributor
Derrian Brown - RB - Never played
Chris Adimora - S - Bench
Tyler Owens - S - Gone
Brayden Liebrock - TE - Bench
Jared Wiley - TE - Plays
Jake Smith - WR - Gone
Kennedy Lewis - WR - Gone
Marcus Washington - WR - Plays
 
I laid it all out for you guys in August but you just wouldn't listen. Enjoy that crow-burger.

3-4 losses should be the expectation. This is year-1 of a new staff. It takes time to establish a new culture. Until it is established, the old culture will rear its head from time to time. That means bone headed mistakes and costly turnovers will likely snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at least once this year.


Sure Wins - 4
Likely Wins - 1
Toss Ups - 4
Likely Losses - 2
Sure Losses - 1

Ceiling is 9-3
Basement is a 2010 type season 5-7
Click to expand...
 
Vino Bevo said:
Interesting discussion on local sports talk this morning regarding the recruiting class of 2019 and the impact on current results. Out of 26 players who signed in what was ranked the #3 class in the nation, 9 are gone via transfer, 3 never played for various reasons, and out of the remaining 14 you have arguably 2-3 impactful contributors with the rest split between the occasional play here and there and never getting off the bench. The conversation centered around the gap that class has left, almost like missing an entire year and then looking at your roster trying to find quality starters and then build depth.

They weren't making excuses, but presenting an observation I hadn't realized. Check it out:

Bru McCoy - ATH - Never played
Jordan Whittington - ATH - Strong contributor (now hurt)
Kenyatta Watson - CB - Gone
Marques Caldwell - CB - Bench
Jacoby Jones - DE - Strong contributor (now hurt)
Myron Warren - DE - Bench
Peter Mpagi - DE - Gone
T'Vondre Sweat - DE - In DL rotation
Caleb Johnson - LB - Gone
David Gbenda - LB - Past contributor
De'Gabriel Floyd - LB - Never played
Juwan Mitchell - LB - Gone
Marcus Tillman - LB - Past contributor
Isaiah Hookfin - OT - Bench
Javonne Shepherd - OT - Gone
Tyler Johnson - OT - Starts but weakest link on OL?
Willie Tyler - OT - Gone
Roschon Johnson - QB (now RB) - Strong contributor
Derrian Brown - RB - Never played
Chris Adimora - S - Bench
Tyler Owens - S - Gone
Brayden Liebrock - TE - Bench
Jared Wiley - TE - Plays
Jake Smith - WR - Gone
Kennedy Lewis - WR - Gone
Marcus Washington - WR - Plays
Click to expand...
A strong class that is gutted like a fish now.
 
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