This Could Prove the Dagger, If Not.....

[PecosBill]

Every source I've seen says the GOR is done in 2025. Of course I could be wrong. Is there a source that confirms 2032 is the new GOR term?

I was reading about the ESPN having the SEC rights thru 2032 when they took over the CBS contract. With SEC tied up expansion of Top tier teams at the exclusion of lower tier teams is limited but might make sense for a limited number of schools.

"ESPN won the conference over with its argument that it can be more creative with scheduling when it controls all of the rights," the Sports Business Journal wrote. "With ESPN owning all of the SEC’s football rights, it’s possible that more than one game will be produced for broadcast TV; more top-tier games can be moved to primetime; and the conference can schedule more late afternoon games without having to worry about running into CBS’ exclusive window. SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey has been concerned about all of the league’s rights being tied up with ABC/ESPN because of the leverage it would give the media company, sources said. It is not known if ESPN opened up its contract to operate SEC Network or its cable rights as part of these negotiations. Those contracts run through 2034."

 

[SabreHorn]

SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey

You mean the SEC has a commissioner? Novel idea. Why doesn't the Big XII consider getting one?

 

[PecosBill]

Streaming services like Amazon Prime Video, Netflix, Disney TV+, ATT TV Now/HBO Max, Apple TV will introduce a whole new wrinkle when B1G begins negotiation for 2023, B12 in 2025.
The fans will focus on realignment and super conferences while the schools will be looking for revenue to remain competitive against the well funded SEC.
ESPN/ABC/Disney already is the 800 lb gorilla but it will be interesting to see how decide to leverage the live content they desire against the new competition.

 

[ViperHorn]

It was my understanding that the network TV Tier 1 and 2 contracts all expire in 2025. That is where the big bucks are. The $EC deal with ESPN is for the Tier 3 rights through the $EC Network. Same for the Big XII Tier 3 with Fox.

 

[LonghornDave]

Big 12 extends commish until the exact moment it could all fall apart

 

[SabreHorn]

That’s almost a bigger fuckup than Herman.


In the sentence above. “Almost” is optional.

 

[MajorRules00]

Big 12 extends commish until the exact moment it could all fall apart

This, to me, is a signal that the clock is ticking on the current Big 12. As Pecos Bill noted above, there's a new world of distribution possibilities out there. Logically, the next expansion moves will be more heavily based on name value than tv markets. Texas, Oklahoma, and (to a lesser extent) Kansas will be the prizes of the next round of realignment.

 

[Joe Fan]

 

[SabreHorn]

"Win out and they're in"

In what? Nothing anyone gives a **** about

"Herman has new life"

Where? Coaching Lawton Middle School? Sure as hell won't be in Travis County.

Does the "K" in "Super K" stand for "know nothing" or is that where he works?

 

[PecosBill]

It was my understanding that the network TV Tier 1 and 2 contracts all expire in 2025. That is where the big bucks are. The $EC deal with ESPN is for the Tier 3 rights through the $EC Network. Same for the Big XII Tier 3 with Fox.

@ViperHorn
Here is a graphic of the CFB conference media rights. Since this chart was made ESPN purchased for $330M the Tier 1 SEC contract that CBS pays $55M thru 2024 and SEC extended it thru 2034
Conference Media deals: when do they expire?
C-USA, Sun Belt, MAC and the Ivy League have all recently signed contracts and/or extensions. The ACC and SEC are signed for the long term as well. Therefore, if there is going to be more conference realignment, it may come down to the next media deals signed by these other FBS conferences...

Year
Conf. 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
AAC ====
MWC ====
BYU ====
B1G ==== ==== ==
Pac-12 ==== ==== ====
Big XII ==== ==== ==== ==
Notre Dame ==== ==== ==== ==
Big East ==== ==== ==== ====
SEC T1 ==== ==== ====
SEC othr ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ====
ACC ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ====

There are 5 conferences which are not locked up for decades to come:

• AAC media deal expires after the 2019/2020 season.
• MWC media deal expires after the 2019/2020 season.
• BYU media deal expires after the 2019/2020 season.
• Big Ten media deal expires after the 2022/2023 season.
• Pac-12 media deal expires after the 2023/2024 season.
• Big XII media deal expires after the 2024/2025 season.
• Notre Dame media deal expires after the 2024/2025 season.
• Big East media deal runs through 2025-26.

There is also one T1-only deal coming up - the SEC’s contract with CBS, which expires after the 2023-24 season. ESPN has a 10 year deal for $330M unifying the SEC under 1 provider. ESPN/ABC/Disney/Streaming

CBS/Viacom will want to keep NFL Sunday before it gets back into CFB bidding wars.

 

[LonghornDave]

"Win out and they're in"

In what? Nothing anyone gives a **** about

"Herman has new life"

Where? Coaching Lawton Middle School? Sure as hell won't be in Travis County.

Does the "K" in "Super K" stand for "know nothing" or is that where he works?

Nash,

Interesting thoughts. I seldom stay over in Austin anymore. I drive in from Houston and back, arriving home between 2-3 after night games. The allure of Austin has been lost in the Southern California bling.

I could not agree more. Austin is different in a not so good way.

 

[ViperHorn]

Thanks Bill. Everything will fly apart sometime between 2022 and 2025 if too many schools want to move to other conferences.

 

[LonghornDave]

Another year of Covid and we will likely have a fraction of the programs to deal with.

 

[nashhorn]

Very interesting thought LD. Particularly because it could be true.

 

[PecosBill]

Thanks Bill. Everything will fly apart sometime between 2022 and 2025 if too many schools want to move to other conferences.

Just an opinion, with ACC and SEC tied up by ESPN/ABC/Disney+ to 2034 the biggest chance for huge TV payday will be 2022 for B1G to get FOX vs ESPN vs Streamers - Netflix, Amazon, AT&T/HBO Max etc into a bidding war to have an exclusive contract like ESPN has to cover all the CFB content and games from SEC & ACC.

My guess is that smarter heads will prevail and instead of over paying that several of the bidders will join up and offer a multiple channel format that includes broadcast TV, cable TV, Conference TV streaming online and OTT Streaming services into a new distribution model.

The more options usually gets more eyeballs.

 

[MajorRules00]

@ViperHorn
Here is a graphic of the CFB conference media rights. Since this chart was made ESPN purchased for $330M the Tier 1 SEC contract that CBS pays $55M thru 2024 and SEC extended it thru 2034
Conference Media deals: when do they expire?
C-USA, Sun Belt, MAC and the Ivy League have all recently signed contracts and/or extensions. The ACC and SEC are signed for the long term as well. Therefore, if there is going to be more conference realignment, it may come down to the next media deals signed by these other FBS conferences...

Year
Conf. 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
AAC ====
MWC ====
BYU ====
B1G ==== ==== ==
Pac-12 ==== ==== ====
Big XII ==== ==== ==== ==
Notre Dame ==== ==== ==== ==
Big East ==== ==== ==== ====
SEC T1 ==== ==== ====
SEC othr ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ====
ACC ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ====

There are 5 conferences which are not locked up for decades to come:

• AAC media deal expires after the 2019/2020 season.
• MWC media deal expires after the 2019/2020 season.
• BYU media deal expires after the 2019/2020 season.
• Big Ten media deal expires after the 2022/2023 season.
• Pac-12 media deal expires after the 2023/2024 season.
• Big XII media deal expires after the 2024/2025 season.
• Notre Dame media deal expires after the 2024/2025 season.
• Big East media deal runs through 2025-26.

There is also one T1-only deal coming up - the SEC’s contract with CBS, which expires after the 2023-24 season. ESPN has a 10 year deal for $330M unifying the SEC under 1 provider. ESPN/ABC/Disney/Streaming

CBS/Viacom will want to keep NFL Sunday before it gets back into CFB bidding wars.

Thanks for this post. Looks like the next seismic shift could be with the B1G in 2023.

 

[LonghornDave]

I think there were a lot of mistakes made last time around at virtually every level. The loss of ticket sales, concessions, hotels etc will crush many local economies (athletic supporters), particularly if Covid affects next season. Football's federally required support of women sports is about to create additional cuts in sports programs and faculty at many colleges will love to blame football and throw the baby out with the bathwater, limiting or eliminating division one sports. Less money and demand for players in the pro ranks could also change the system.
I could see Kansas eliminating football and no one would notice. If the basketball team can carry the athletic department, so be it. I see this as a possibility with several ACC programs where alumni support for football and a new economy could lead to a quicker end. Add to these Covid and Woke and faculty realities and the flexibility of a more competitive and flexible media market and I see a situation similar to what would happen if the NFL tripled in size without "growing" the market out. Texas and OU and USC and LSU and Alabama can sell (and generate money) on most of their games, but does Miss v Miss State, or Az ASU, or Iowa v Purdue, or Wake Forest v anyone justify the marginal cost of a conference content bidding system. I don't think so and it will get worse. I think we will see bids for particular contests ie. High value for popular games and low value for less popular. At that point Why would USC pay 1/14 of the PAC money to anyone that cannot contribute content?

Threaten the livelihood of Basketball or Baseball in some less football committed schools and decisions will be made that significantly change the conference landscape.

And think about a tv market where now SEC SEC SEC and others were forced to remove DIV II games from their schedule. Why can't the Content buyers require this every time v guaranteeing to subsidize three unbroadcast easy wins v Prairie View?

 

[PecosBill]

I think there were a lot of mistakes made last time around at virtually every level. The loss of ticket sales, concessions, hotels etc will crush many local economies (athletic supporters), particularly if Covid affects next season. Football's federally required support of women sports is about to create additional cuts in sports programs and faculty at many colleges will love to blame football and throw the baby out with the bathwater, limiting or eliminating division one sports. Less money and demand for players in the pro ranks could also change the system.
I could see Kansas eliminating football and no one would notice. If the basketball team can carry the athletic department, so be it. I see this as a possibility with several ACC programs where alumni support for football and a new economy could lead to a quicker end. Add to these Covid and Woke and faculty realities and the flexibility of a more competitive and flexible media market and I see a situation similar to what would happen if the NFL tripled in size without "growing" the market out. Texas and OU and USC and LSU and Alabama can sell (and generate money) on most of their games, but does Miss v Miss State, or Az ASU, or Iowa v Purdue, or Wake Forest v anyone justify the marginal cost of a conference content bidding system. I don't think so and it will get worse. I think we will see bids for particular contests ie. High value for popular games and low value for less popular. At that point Why would USC pay 1/14 of the PAC money to anyone that cannot contribute content?

Threaten the livelihood of Basketball or Baseball in some less football committed schools and decisions will be made that significantly change the conference landscape.

And think about a tv market where now SEC SEC SEC and others were forced to remove DIV II games from their schedule. Why can't the Content buyers require this every time v guaranteeing to subsidize three unbroadcast easy wins v Prairie View?

A Super Conference of a few top tier programs CFB that you are describing might seem interesting from a fans view point the media wants more content not less and they want more platforms to view it on not fewer.

Bama/Clem/tOSU doesnt want to play the same 10 top tier teams a season plus post season plus CFP bc they want a schedule that give them 6-8 home games with some patsies, conference rivals and regional Rivals.

Media TV wants to start broadcasts at 11am CST/9am PCT and continue with 3.5 hour games starting until 8pm cst and 8pm PST (regional) for nationwide eyeballs. They want more overall content including the premier matchups for prime time.

More content not less content. Regionals am matches, Premier and Regional prime time matchups in afternoon and early pm followed by PM Premier and Regional and late PST game starts.

More content over more distribution channels and platforms because the eyeballs are available 18 hours a day.

People will watch their team play because the are fans of that team not bc a better game is on at the same time.

SEC has 14 teams and each plays 12 games w 4 non conference to get more home games and an easier schedule for more revenue with less effort/risk. Same for the other conferences.

No coach wants the game of the year every 7 days.

 

[MajorRules00]

I think there were a lot of mistakes made last time around at virtually every level. The loss of ticket sales, concessions, hotels etc will crush many local economies (athletic supporters), particularly if Covid affects next season. Football's federally required support of women sports is about to create additional cuts in sports programs and faculty at many colleges will love to blame football and throw the baby out with the bathwater, limiting or eliminating division one sports. Less money and demand for players in the pro ranks could also change the system.
I could see Kansas eliminating football and no one would notice. If the basketball team can carry the athletic department, so be it. I see this as a possibility with several ACC programs where alumni support for football and a new economy could lead to a quicker end. Add to these Covid and Woke and faculty realities and the flexibility of a more competitive and flexible media market and I see a situation similar to what would happen if the NFL tripled in size without "growing" the market out. Texas and OU and USC and LSU and Alabama can sell (and generate money) on most of their games, but does Miss v Miss State, or Az ASU, or Iowa v Purdue, or Wake Forest v anyone justify the marginal cost of a conference content bidding system. I don't think so and it will get worse. I think we will see bids for particular contests ie. High value for popular games and low value for less popular. At that point Why would USC pay 1/14 of the PAC money to anyone that cannot contribute content?

Threaten the livelihood of Basketball or Baseball in some less football committed schools and decisions will be made that significantly change the conference landscape.

And think about a tv market where now SEC SEC SEC and others were forced to remove DIV II games from their schedule. Why can't the Content buyers require this every time v guaranteeing to subsidize three unbroadcast easy wins v Prairie View?

This is a great analysis. Given all the uncertainties of our current situation, it's hard to predict what will happen next.

If things get back to "normal" by next season, I bet the drive for super conferences will continue. This means the B1G will be looking for two more in 2024. And KU and OU would be their top choices, IMO.

 

[LonghornDave]

This is a great analysis. Given all the uncertainties of our current situation, it's hard to predict what will happen next.

If things get back to "normal" by next season, I bet the drive for super conferences will continue. This means the B1G will be looking for two more in 2024. And KU and OU would be their top choices, IMO.

Kansas and OU would be good choices but I don't think OU goes without OSU and probably Texas. I think if they add 3, they will add 4 or maybe 6. Maybe take another swing at Missouri, at this point TCU seems like a better get than TT. for God's sake dump Baylor.. As long as I dreaming pick up Rice.

 

[ViperHorn]

Kansas and OU would be good choices but I don't think OU goes without OSU and probably Texas. I think if they add 3, they will add 4 or maybe 6. Maybe take another swing at Missouri, at this point TCU seems like a better get than TT. for God's sake dump Baylor.. As long as I dreaming pick up Rice.

Wherever ou goes oSu goes by law (or what passes as law in Oklahoma).

 

[erbutch]

A Super Conference of a few top tier programs CFB that you are describing might seem interesting from a fans view point the media wants more content not less and they want more platforms to view it on not fewer.

Bama/Clem/tOSU doesnt want to play the same 10 top tier teams a season plus post season plus CFP bc they want a schedule that give them 6-8 home games with some patsies, conference rivals and regional Rivals.

Media TV wants to start broadcasts at 11am CST/9am PCT and continue with 3.5 hour games starting until 8pm cst and 8pm PST (regional) for nationwide eyeballs. They want more overall content including the premier matchups for prime time.

More content not less content. Regionals am matches, Premier and Regional prime time matchups in afternoon and early pm followed by PM Premier and Regional and late PST game starts.

More content over more distribution channels and platforms because the eyeballs are available 18 hours a day.

People will watch their team play because the are fans of that team not bc a better game is on at the same time.

SEC has 14 teams and each plays 12 games w 4 non conference to get more home games and an easier schedule for more revenue with less effort/risk. Same for the other conferences.

No coach wants the game of the year every 7 days.

Great a super conference. Wonder where Texas will go then? Oh well maybe there will be an opening in the Sunbelt conference for us.

 

[22Horn]

LHDave, Mizzou ??

 

[rick mueller]

Great a super conference. Wonder where Texas will go then? Oh well maybe there will be an opening in the Sunbelt conference for us.

I'm sure we would be a welcome addition to any Group of Five conference.

 

[LonghornDave]

LHDave, Mizzou ??

I suspect the Big Ten is still the choice of Mizzou and not having Kansas and Mizzou in the same bb conference is a travesty. I would rather play Mizzou than Baylor in football and I like Rice because it is three miles from my house, good tailgating, and live college football every other weekend in Houston would be awesome.