The Myth of Jeff Fisher

Hpslugga

2,500+ Posts
When you average out the offensive rankings in terms of scoring amongst Super Bowl winners, you come to find out that the average ranking for a Super Bowl Champion is 4.829, rounded up to 5.
When you average out the offensive rankings in terms of yardage amongst Super Bowl winners, you come to find out that the average ranking for a Super Bowl Champion is 6.682, rounded up to 7.

In short, the average ranking for a Super Bowl champion offense is 5th in points (or better), 7th in yards (or better).

When you average out the defensive rankings in terms of scoring amongst Super Bowl winners, you come to find out that the average ranking for a Super Bowl Champion is 4.658, rounded up to 5.

When you average out the defensive rankings in terms of yardage amongst Super Bowl winners, you come to find out that the average ranking for a Super Bowl Champion is 5.707 rounded up to 6.

In short, the average ranking for a Super Bowl champion defense is 5th in points (or better), 6th in yards (or better).

Simply put, when you look at the Big 4 stat rankings, a typical Super Bowl champion will rank in the top 7 or better in all 4.

Does this mean that those rankings absolutely have to be achieved in order to win a Super Bowl? No. What it means is that you must strive to achieve those goals in order to at least put yourself in position to win one. The 2002 Tampa Bay Bucs, for example, were an exception to this general rule, not the rule, as were the 2006 Indianapolis Colts.

"Defense wins championships" is a phrase that is often slung around in the football community and it's one of the most misunderstood phrases of all. The full phrase is "Offense wins games, defense wins championships." This does not mean that a great offense always gets stalled in big games. It simply means you need to have great units on both facets (as well as special teams).

In fact, that phrase is said to have its origins in basketball. The phrase sums up the simple philosophy that in basketball, you need to score at will and stop the other team one more time than they stop you in order to win a championship. Of course this phrase manifested itself to all sports and it simply means you need to be a well rounded team to win titles.

It shouldn't shock anyone when they figure this out, but you'd be surprised. There really are some people that think in football, you just need a blistering up-tempo offense to win titles. There are others who think in football, you just need a tough, hard nosed defense to win titles. They're both wrong. You need 2 units that are efficient.

There are no shortcuts to Super Bowls. You can't just say "we have a great defense, we'll win a championship." If all you have is a defense, you're no better than a Mike Martz coached team that scores at will but gets scored against just as easily. If you have a ******* offense and a great defense, you stop people but you get stopped just as often. Either scenario is Russian Roulette in the NFL. You will lose just as often as you win if you have such a bi-polar team.

Now why am I going off about this when my own thread is just about Jeff Fisher? Simple: he doesn't understand what I just said. The guy doesn't care about his team's own offense.
Look at his record:

Under Jeff Fisher, the Oilers/Titans have only ranked 5th or better in scoring 1 time. That was in 2003 when they ranked 5th in that category. The Oilers/Titans have never ranked 7th or better in yardage under Fisher. Ever. Not once. The closest they got was in 2001 and 2003 when they ranked 8th in said category. In 13 seasons as the HC of the Oilers/Titans, his offense's average ranking is 14th in points and 16th in yardage. You simply cannot have these kinds of mediocre offenses if you want to win championships. The only way you can pull off a 2002 Tampa Bay or a 2000 Baltimore is if your defense is that great, which leads me to this:
For all the praise he gets for his alleged "defensive prowess," this pupil of Buddy Ryan has failed to put his team up to standard in terms of championship level defensive rankings as well.

After 13 full seasons as the Oilers/Titans' head coach, Fisher's defenses average a ranking of 16th in points and 15th in yards.The Link

Jeff Fisher has only guided 3 defenses that ranked in the top 10 in scoring. In that same time frame, the Oilers/Titans defense has ranked in the top 10 in yardage 4 times. That's an equivalent of 9 seasons in which this franchise has failed to get in the top 10 in either of the big 2 defensive categories. In fact, in 7 of those 13 seasons, this franchise failed to rank in the top half of the league in yardage allowed.

It's not just a matter of mediocre consistency either. His defenses have been anything but consistent, which only furthers my case. A person can point to this year's defense in order to disprove what I said about his D's. I can just as easily point to last year. A person can point to the 2000 Tennessee defense to disprove what I said. I can just as easily point to 2004. For every great defense he's put out there, Fisher has also put out an equally ****** one.

Jeff Fisher simply does not put his teams in a position to win Super Bowls. He has had 13 years to turn this team into something and all he has is 1 loss in the Super Bowl to show for it. He is simply unfit to be this team's head coach.
His job is to put them in a position to at least get there. When your offenses AND defenses are consistently ranking right at the middle of the league year in and year out, a playoff appearance is the best you can HOPE for, much less expect.

Jeff Fisher got this job because he was a prodigy of Buddy Ryan's, and Bud Adams wanted to morph the franchise from the offensive juggernaut that it was under Jack Pardee into a defensive oriented team.

Here's the problem, though: Jack Pardee was a better defensive coach than Jeff Fisher. Pardee's worst defense was his 1st as the Oilers HC and even they weren't all that bad (14th points, 11th yards, which is better than a typical Fisher defense). Pardee went on to have defenses that ranked 6th, 9th and 4th in scoring and 9th, 3rd, and 14th in yards. Pardee's defenses ranked an average of 8th in points and 12th in points. Such a resume at this point would be considered an upgrade for Jeff Fisher. And of course we already know that Pardee's offenses were better than Fisher's, so that item isn't worth discussing.

Fisher is still the head coach and God and Bud Adams only know why. If it is because Adams is letting him milk that 1999 AFC title for all its worth, then it only further proves my case that Bud Adams is a moron. Consistently getting into the playoffs really isn't something that Fisher does well either. His teams have made the playoffs 5 times in the 13 years he's had as the head coach with 2007 being the latest.The Link

That is to say that it took 13 seasons for Jeff Fisher to go to the playoffs as the head coach of Oilers/Titans more times than Jack Pardee did in just 4 seasons with the same franchise. Fisher's teams are 5-5 in the playoffs in that time frame.

Say what you will about the Run-and-Shoot, say what you will about Jack Pardee: the guy put teams in the playoffs and in a realistic position to win Super Bowls. Were his teams not so self destructive and his units not so divisive, they may have at least gotten there.

Does this mean that Tennessee needs to locate Pardee in whatever retirement home he currently resides and re-hire him? No. What it means is that they should have hired a replacement that was as good or better than him back in 1994 when Adams inexplicably decided to gut the team. When they hired Jeff Fisher, they effectively lowered their standards. Yeah yeah yeah, I know, hindsight, 20/20, yadda yadda. Bottom line: they've had 13 years to realize they got the wrong guy and they continue to stick to their guns on this guy.
I did not post this as another rant about Jack Pardee or the Oilers or the Run-and-Shoot. I posted this because of my concerns for one Vincent Young. Vince Young is never going to succeed in Tennessee as long as Jeff Fisher is the head coach. Fisher doesn't care about offense and he's not going to help VY out either with personnel or a staff worth a **** to help him have at least a respectable offense, much less an offense that can rank in the top 7 in both yards and points. And VY isn't gonna win a Super Bowl with them either. You can't win a Super Bowl if you rank right at the middle in all 4 of the big team statistical categories. If you have a mediocre defense, you can still win a SB, but only if you have an elite offense and vice versa.
 
I apologize for the length. Key points are in bold. I stopped and started over and over as I typed that and didn't really pay attention to the overall length.

Yes, they're two relatively simple points, but there are so many superfans here that want to put faith in VY before fact and overlook a shitload of obstacles he has in front of him. He's a great player but this is an obstacle too great for even him.
 
I agree. It's an excellent post. I'll throw something else in as well. Talent level. It's obvious to all that the Titans suffer from talent deficiencies at a number of positions, including wide receiver and running back. I admit I don't know a lot about personnel management within the Titans organization. But I assume Jeff Fisher plays a major role in the decision-making process. If so, he also deserves criticism for the steady erosion of talent which has taken place since their SB appearance.
 
I loved Jack Pardee, so don't take this as criticism of him.

Fisher has had to build this team from the ground up twice. If you take averages over the entirety of his tenure, you have to keep that in mind. Pardee walked into a team that was already built and tried to fill in the missing pieces for four years. That's far different in having to rebuild two times with teams that had been completely blown up. If you want to compare apples to apples, you have to take Fisher's numbers from '99 to '03 to compare to Pardee's record.
 
Good, if long, post. And, obviously, you're right that the time-honored chestnut that "defense wins championships" fails to account for, well, half the picture.


And, hence, any coach that predicates his philosophy on it is...ummm...either talking in coachspeak or handicapping his team. Same goes for the Mike Martzes of the world.
 
yeah, I agree that Jeff Fisher should open up the offense more, and that the Titans need a lot of help at WR.

But I just wanted to say that Jack Pardee sucks.
 
Perhaps I should clarify that to appease those who read that too literally:

He doesn't care about it nearly as much as he should. He certainly doesn't place equal importance on it as he does his defense.
 
yeah, Pardee was awesome, all those super bowl runs his team made. oh wait, no super bowls?

pardee had a HOF qb, Jeff Fisher does not, nor has he. those Oiler teams of Pardee were stacked with quality players, didn't they send 9 to the pro bowl the year they went like 13-3 or something crazy like that?


to say the offense this year was limited because of Fisher's play calling without ever questioning the abilities of the key offensive skill people is like looking a picture only in 2 dimensions.


The points I comletely agree with is that historically speaking, the teams winning super bowls have been great offensive teams. and usually they can throw the ball well, too. the idea that great defense and a running game are some unbeatable combo is silly.
 
2003 NFL MVP
• Peyton Manning, QB - Indianapolis Colts
• Steve McNair, QB - Tennessee Titans (Associated Press - tie)

That McNair, he never amounted to anything.
 
1 season does not make a career. The point is that he had the potential to be an HOF level QB. He is not an HOF level QB and it's not completely his fault. He played for a coach that absolutely refused to open up his passing game and had a nasty habit of getting rid of good receivers.
 
Rex fails. In 01 the Titans were 7-9 and in 04 they were 5-11.

They won their division in 02 and 03, but neither year did they have a top ten scoring defense and only in 03 did they have a top 10 scoring offense (ranked 5th). In 03 they were in the top 5 in point differential (ranked 4th), in 02 they were ranked 11th in point differential. The fact is that the Titans have never had a sustained period of success under Fisher.
 
Stat, other teams in similar positions have dismissed their coaches in shorter amounts of time for such mediocrity. Hell, Billick was fired after this past season even though he's been to the playoffs 4 times, has a Super Bowl ring and he was only there for 9 years (and for the record, he also has a better winning % than Fisher). A playoff appearance in the NFL is treated as a bowl appearance in college and if you're not getting there, you're gone. That's just the nature of the business. Look at all the coaches over the course of history in the NFL and you'll see what I mean.

Landry: 18/29
Noll: 12/23
Walsh: 7/10
Seifert: 7/11 (7/8 with SF)
Cowher: 10/15
Gibbs: 10/16
Dungy: 10/12
Robinson: 6/9
Holmgren: 12/16
Reid: 6/9
Madden: 8/10
Grant: 12/18
Shula: 19/33
Shanahan: 7/15
Levy: 8/17
Brown: 15/25

All of those coaches (with the exception of Walsh) are the franchise leading coaches in terms of total wins. Fisher is in that group, and has the worst playoff appearance % of all of them. The only way you can be a 13-year coaching veteran with such a poor playoff appearance % is the owner inexcusably keeps you around. His name does not belong with those guys. His name belongs with guys like Fox, Capers, Mora, etc. The difference is that those guys didn't last 13 years.
 
Slugga, you're now comparing Fisher with (mostly) HOF coaches, after acknowledging that that wasn't your argument.

It's true, Fisher is a conservative coach. And he wins. Bum Phillips coached the same way, and won. They both had the same handicap, and he wears a toupee.
 
Jeff Fisher has had the same haircut for 13 yrs. Players notice that
kind of stability and style and respect him for that. If you bring in a new coach, what are you telling the players?
 
But while the Titans may have made fixing defensive problems their priority, it isn't like the Titans were doing everything at the expense of the offense. While their most of their free agent acquisitions and their first draft pick were on the defensive side, their next 3 picks were offensive players.

Yeah, they let Bennett and Wade go, but it's not like either of those guys was a must keep talent.

I don't know for certain, but to me it looks like the Titans had a rational approach to 2007--rebuild the defense and keep Vince alive while he's still learning NFL defenses and until he has some more weapons around him.
 

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