We keep looking at the China trade war with narcissistic lenses. We are one growing season away from other countries filling China's agriculture demands. If you are a soy bean farmer you are at risk of losing Chinese customers long term.
There are losers in any kind of punitive action on trade policy. There's no denying that. I think the rationale is that because we are a bigger purchaser of Chinese goods and services than China is of American goods and services, China has more to lose. We might lose some Chinese soybean customers, but they stand to lose far more in sales of electronics, clothing, etc.
Yes, we can and should find alternate suppliers but so will China for our exports. This is why backing out of the TPP was dumb. That agreement would have gone far to buffer the effects of this trade war as well as box in China. We pissed away leverage due to politics
Pulling out of the TPP was dumb. I think people (including Trump) just kneejerk assumed that it promoted more trade with China when it likely would have made it easier to reduce trade with China. If there were specific problems with TPP, then those should have been addressed. We shouldn't have just walked away from the table.
We HAVE to combat China's theft of IP. That's a much greater threat to our security than and trade deficit.
I think the hope is that the trade deficit can be used to leverage greater enforcement against IP theft within China. We can probably do more on our end to prosecute IP thieves when people in the US enable theft, but obviously the real bad apples are much easier for China to prosecute, because that's where they are.
However, even if the tariffs work and China agrees to some major crackdown on IP thieves, do we trust them to live up to their end of the deal? It's a little like the Iran nuclear deal. We are negotiating a deal with a country that is ideologically hostile to us and that we do not and cannot assume will honor its word, and that reduces the value of any concession they might make.