The First 100 days

Joe Fan said:
The new class photo
At least one guy looks happy

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Is it me or does it look like the size of the smile is inversely proportioned to the length of time on SCOTUS? Clarence Thomas may be the exception to that.
 
Gary Shilling, one of the few who predicted the housing crisis in advance, says Trump will win the tariff war with China in the long run --

"Here's the point that I continue to make. When you've got plenty of supply in the world, and I think you do — plenty of industrial capability, plenty of raw materials and so on — it's the buyer that has the upper hand not the seller. The buyer has the ultimate power and who's the buyer? US is the buyer, China is the seller. And besides that, if you say, if we weren't buying all those consumer goods from China, and you and I enjoy them, they're cheap, they're great. But if we weren't buying them, where would China sell them? They have no other place to sell them, and in the meanwhile, China's growth is slowing.

They've got a problem of huge debt expansion they're trying to curb, they're trying to deal with a shadow lending — a shadow banking system and so on and so forth. China isn't going to collapse obviously, but I think in this trade war, that the US has the upper hand.

* * *

I mean, people say nobody wins trade wars. Yeah, in the short-run you don't, but in the long-run, if it's a matter of changing what has been the world exporting to the US and the US buying it and what do we do? We give them paper. That's why they own half of our treasuries. I think that is being reversed and in the long-run, the US will be better off."​

The whole answer is worth the read, if you are interested in this sort of thing. It's not long.

I obviously agree with his view and think its consistent with what I wrote above.
The First 100 days

The legendary economist who predicted the housing crisis says the US will win the trade war
 
Sounds like Trump was able to get a concession out of Xi at the G-20 to get China to classify fentanyl as a controlled substance in China.
If so, would be a big step in combating opioid crisis as China floods North America with fentanyl
 
Is that really a problem? Most of the opioid problem is from over-prescribing by doctors. I don't think that addresses the issue much.
 
mchammer, does it matter where the fentanyl comes from? If China considers it a controlled substance, does that mean there is less supply in the US? Does that mean doctors prescribe it less? Does that change working class depression?

I don't think this action addresses the source of the problem at all.
 
Monahorns said:
mchammer, does it matter where the fentanyl comes from? If China considers it a controlled substance, does that mean there is less supply in the US? Does that mean doctors prescribe it less? Does that change working class depression?

I don't think this action addresses the source of the problem at all.
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Black market fentanyl can be sold as different analogs of varying strength. It’s too dangerous to use. Pill popping of approved drugs from prescription is safer.
 
It is. Black market drugs don't have consistent purity or potency. The solution to that problem is legalization and transparent markets. Adding more government control adds more incentive to increase potency and less reason to address purity. My prediction is the problem gets worse as a result.
 
iatrogenic, much of the opioid issue is due to working class males being depressed and turning to drugs like fentanyl. If you don't address that regulations in China aren't going to do anything.
 
Good heavens guys this may not fix the problem - read will not 'fix' the problem - but let's get something to start. Maybe its a symbol, maybe it's just nothing but h*** let's try to start somewhere.
 
You don't just start enacting laws and regulations for no reason. Those things have unintended consequences that are harmful. That is the definition of foolishness.
 
Monahorns said:
iatrogenic, much of the opioid issue is due to working class males being depressed and turning to drugs like fentanyl. If you don't address that regulations in China aren't going to do anything.
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I’m not sure depression is the cause. I’m also not sure that “working class” fits either. You are dead on with your comment about doctors over prescribing though.
 
iatrogenic, regardless if I characterize the situation correctly, would you agree that the causes of addiction and specific solutions need to be focused on instead of restricting supply? When has that ever worked?
 
Monahorns said:
iatrogenic, regardless if I characterize the situation correctly, would you agree that the causes of addiction and specific solutions need to be focused on instead of restricting supply? When has that ever worked?
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That would be great, but I don't see how we can prevent some people from seeking the "reward" from doing drugs. Education about the addictive powers of opioids and consequences of being addicted are obvious answers, but trying to restrict supply of illegal drugs is not a bad idea.

Stopping illegals (mules and suppliers from Nayarit) from entering the U.S., closing down pill mills, and, yes, regulating the drug companies better would have the greatest positive effect. Doing so would have prevented the majority of the heroin/opioid problem.
 
What part of the history of the drug war have you need seen?

You state restricting supply will stop the problem. The problem is that the opioid addiction problem came from the fact that it was one of the easier, cheaper drugs available. You restrict that and the next drug fad will happen.
 
90


"After registering a peak in 2014, deaths due to terrorism have dropped 44 percent, in large part due to the U.S. war on ISIS, according to an international group.

The sixth edition of the Global Terrorism Index said that the improvement in thwarting terrorism death was the best since 2004.

“The total number of deaths fell by 27 per cent between 2016 and 2017, with the largest falls occurring in Iraq and Syria. Iraq recorded over 5,000 fewer deaths from terrorism in 2017, while Syria recorded over 1,000 fewer deaths. The fall in deaths was reflected in scores on the GTI, with 94 countries improving, compared to 46 that deteriorated. This is the highest number of countries to record a year on year improvement since 2004 and reflects the increased emphasis placed on countering terrorism around the world since the surge in violence in 2013,” said the report produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace...."​

US war on ISIS scores 44 percent drop in terrorism deaths
 
Not sure what the definition for "deaths from terrorism" is, and the graph contradicts the headline. It looks like US intervention has increased not decreased death regardless of the definition. Not sure I would tout a slight dip from a massive peak as progress. Once the death rate goes back to 2001 levels, then we can celebrate.
 
"The federal government has discovered a massive new reserve of oil and natural gas in Texas and New Mexico that it says has the “largest continuous oil and gas resource potential ever assessed.”

“Christmas came a few weeks early this year,” Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke said of the new reserve, which is believed to have enough energy to fuel the U.S. for nearly seven years..."​

Oil & Natural Gas -- U.S. Feds Discover Largest Oil, Natural-Gas Reserve in History | National Review
 
Monahorns said:
What part of the history of the drug war have you need seen?

You state restricting supply will stop the problem. The problem is that the opioid addiction problem came from the fact that it was one of the easier, cheaper drugs available. You restrict that and the next drug fad will happen.
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That argument is similar to the "why eat when your just going to get hungry again?". If you think the costs of changing human nature are less than the costs of restricting the supply of illegal drugs, by all means we should change human nature. I just happen to disagree with you in this instance.
 
Today was NFP release. US employers added 155k jobs in November, the 98th straight month of growth. The unemployment rate held at 3.7%, a multi-decade low

Solid household survey: Employment up 233k, unemployment down 100k, labor force up 133k. (Participation rate unchanged after last month's uptick.)

Average earnings were up 6 cents/hour, +3.1% over the past year. That's the same year-over-year rate as last month, when wage growth was supposedly artificially inflated by hurricane effects.

The unemployment rate for Americans with just a high school diploma (or GED) was 3.5% in November, the lowest since 2000.

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There has been much chatter about "a manufacturing slowdown" given GM, tariff concerns, etc.

But no sign of that in jobs report: +27k manufacturing jobs in November, continuing strong run. (Slight decline in auto manufacturing jobs, though.)

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