Texas vs. OSU Game 3

OMG people. 7 losses in a row - sweeps by Neb. & Okie Lite with a loss thrown in to Coastal Aggie. The Horns should have at least won the Friday game when they had the lead late and momentum.

The wheels have officially come off the bus for this season and the driver needs to be changed.
 
It is not the loses, but how they are lost. Garrido barely gets off his *** anymore. Snuggled up in a pullover and leather gloves. That generates a lot of enthusiasm for both the players and fans. If all the guy is looking for is 2000 wins, then he can get the hell out now.
 
I hate to say it, but this does feel so much like the 2013 season. Coach Smart talked about energy givers in his press conference. This team could really use some positive energy right now.
 
We fought our way out of an away Regional last year so maybe the leadership will come out of desperation and we can fight our way out of a Regional somewhere in Texas this year too. That 9th inning tie on Friday sure was a killa.
 
Losing reliable offensive pop from Hinojosa and Gurwitz is hurting the offense bad. C.J. has tanked from .298 last year to .205. Gurwitz has fallen from .284 to .191. Two of our best hitters in 2014 have lost nearly .100 points each.

Clements is still his traditional below .220 self. He strikes out more than he hits (6 k's to 5 hits). Last year he was the only starter who whiffed more than he hit (50 k's, 44 hits). Now he's got Baker, Cantu, Boswell, Shaw, and Gurwitz following that trend. As a matter of fact, the whole lineup has regressed miserably with strikeouts...

2014: 367 k's, 543 hits (1.5 hits for every k)
2015: 245 k's, 268 hits (1.1 hits for every k)

3 dead bats (Hinojosa, Gurwitz, Clements) making up 1/3 of the lineup is big trouble. Especially this year when the middle is much softer too. In 2014 you had to scroll down to the 9th batter (Clements) before finding a sub .260 hitter. Now there are 7 regular starters below the line, as our 3rd best hitter (Baker) sits at .258.

With 32 games in the books and only 20 to go, it's safe to say we know what this offense is and isn't. The top 4 non-Horns pitching staffs in the Big 12 are TCU, OSU, OU, and Tech. We have yet to face 3 of them (#1, #3, #5).

Forget some blistering win streak and reversal of fortune, we are ill-equipped at the plate. We better just pray the bats do enough to keep us above .500 in conference, and squeeze out a 4 seed. Both 2013 teams that finished conference play below .500 (Tech, Texas) were left out.

Right now we sit 2 games above .500 overall. Don't forget the 2013 team who missed the playoffs finished with a 27-24-1 record. 3 games above .500. Right now we are even behind their pace with a mean conference schedule remaining. It's gonna be a very close call even playing in the second season.
 
All is not lost if Augie will wake up and do what is necessary. There is a way to improve all of this. Over the next 10 games we must focus intently (practice and games) on cleaning up the technical aspects of batting for the stretch run...

1) Back to even swings taken for singles/double and less focus on power
2) More discernible plate approach with pitch selection
3) Executing effective bunts (bunting in EVERY reasonable 'runner-on' situation)

Improvement in those 3 areas should lead to more hits, more walks, and fewer strikeouts as it did last year. Which in turn means more freakin' runs!

Make a committed, even hand-cuffed return to effective 'small ball'. These hitters are not sound, consistent, or powerful enough to play the mainstream style. The adjustment to it is killing some of their averages. We can recruit better suited hitters for that now that we've seen the new balls in action. But this lineup doesn't have what it takes to remove focus from small ball.

If we can iron out those areas over the next 10 games, then we should be ready to smoke through the final 10 games and into the conference tourney. Maybe, just maybe, we can field a successful, more efficient offense in the regional and surprise some folks in combination with our fairly strong pitching. But if they don't get back to small ball basics NOW, this duck is cooked.
 
All the things said above are true, but they were true last year also, and started before that. The averages are worse this year than last year, but the run production is much the same. We have more power this year, while last years it was done on singles,walks, and bunts. Hitters struck out way too much on bad pitches last year too and stranded base runners in scoring position. They strike out more on bad pitches this year, but still it's the same run production.

Last season Texas finished with the season with a 46-21 record, so that's 67 games played. We hit 22 home runs in that season. This year in 32 games, the Horns have 20 homers already. It's the same improved numbers for all the extra base hit figures. The bottom line is in 67 games last season, Texas scored 299 runs. This season in 32 games, the Horns have scored 153 runs. So the run production is even slightly better this year.

The Horns advanced last year due to very good pitching and then in post season play, absolutely lights out pitching. I said in the new ball era that the pitching would suffer a bit. In any era though, you couldn't expect the pitching that Texas got last season, down the stretch. It's a young, but talented staff this year. The third spot in the starting rotation is still not settled. There is no big closer, as has been the case for several years. I can't emphasize enough, the loss of Morgan Cooper, to Tommy John surgery. He could have been that closer or that third starter.

The pitching was going to not be as good anyway, due to the new baseball, but if we had even average run production, this would be a formidable team. If we had average run production last year, we would have another National Championship. Same for the past several years, even in 2013, with average run production, that team could have competed well in post season. It's been a fine line for years now and if the pitching falls off at all, the losses mount. That's why when I posted that last year's team, was only slightly better than the team of 2013, people went crazy. In fact, it was a true statement. The only difference between this team and last year, is the pitching is a little worse. The run production is the same and even marginally better. That fine line I keep talking about between victory and defeat, has been crossed again, just like in 2013.

Texas hasn't been able to produce runs in an acceptable manner for several years now. It's doesn't matter if the averages are higher or what kind of offense you use, if you don't produce the runs. Last season we got all those singles and walks and bunted them up, then stranded them on base. This season we hit more extra base hits and even more homers, but look at the stranded runners column, still very bad. The extra power has replaced those walks from last year, but the results are the same. It's just a matter of pick your poison to kill run production, like would you prefer to die from arsenic or strychnine.

Bottom line is with the new ball and an incomplete pitching staff, due to injuries to Morgan Cooper and Blake Goins, out for the season. I had forgot about Goins, who could have also contributed to the staff this year. The pitching is not as good as in the past season. It's still very good though.

The rock bottom line is that the offense had to pick up the run production to take up that slack. Even in this new ball season, it simply hasn't done so. It really doesn't matter which style offense that Texas has had, the run production is just not there. I suggested they bring in a hitting adviser to analyze what is going on with the hitters, talk to them about their approach to hitting and offer help. Maybe a Moreland or whoever could do the job. They brought in special advisers for football, so why not for baseball. We hear this season and in seasons past, that this is the team that will bring the offense back, this or that guy hit great in the fall, it's a certainty that the offense will be better. It never happens. It certainly isn't just a phenomenon of this year's team.

I keep thinking about the slogan they had for Bill Clinton's first presidential campaign. "It's the economy, stupid!" Well with this year's Texas Baseball team and those in the past several years, the slogan should be this. "It's the run production on offense, stupid!"

Nothing will ever change till this is fixed, no matter the style of offense used in the attempt. The players at Texas are players everyone wanted. Some are players that were so talented, that most thought they would sign and go pro. Yet when they get here, their hitting suffers, some to the point they can't even start on a college team. Many times during the course of the two games, broadcast on ESPNU, the color commentator talked about the great talent, that Texas had hitting wise. That these players should be hitting, that they were better than the OSU players. The difference was that the OSU hitters, took better at bats. What is going on? These are the questions that need to be answered. It's another reason why I think an outside hitting adviser be used. We have supposedly good coaches, other than for just pitching. With the problems on offense, that has persisted for years now, it should have already been addressed. So now, they all of a sudden, are going to think, hey we need to do something about this. The horses, or in this case, the Longhorns, have been out the barn door and grazing in the bad hitting pasture for several years.



 
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Since a lot of people are focusing on the perceived difficiencies of the 2015, I will play devil's advocate and discuss some positives.

Quality at Bats. I have scored every pitch of every game (except the 18 inn OSU game) and one positive stat that jumps off the page to me is Quality at Bats. I define a QAB as a plate appearance that results in any one of: 3 pitches after 2 strikes, 6+ pitch ABs, XBH, HHB, BB, SAC Bunt, SAC Fly. Hitting coaches want to see >50% of plate appearances resulting in a QAB. On the season the Horns numbers are 45% in conference play and 48% overall - not bad if you ask me. As a comparison, in 2014 they were at 50% and 48% respectively. It's just that a lot of balls are being hit at people. On Saturday against OSU, the Horns hit 8 balls hard that went right at a defender. On Sunday the number was 9. Sometimes you can smoke a ball, but it goes right at someone. Then there are times you barely get the bat on the ball and it falls in. Texas has had more of the former lately.

Pitching. Considering how many innings were lost to attrition and injury from the CWS team last year, they have done admirably. I've said it before and I'll say it again - "In Skip I Trust."

Catching. This team has two catchers that would start on most other teams in the country. Every time someone attempts a steal, I expect him to be thrown out. Tres calls the pitches and Michael can gun the ball to 2nd from his knees. Both can also play 1B.

A lot of the problems right now are mental. A hitting "adviser", as NB suggested, might just fix that aspect of the offense.

As the 2002, '04, and '05 teams can attest... the best team does not necessarily win in Omaha. The team playing the best in June does. I'd rather slump in late-March and early-April than in June.

Bring on the Shockers! :hookem:
 
Seems like this "offensive" futility is a virus spreading around our men's big 3 sports teams! If we finish in the tank, will SP ride with Augie for the remaining 2 years of his contract or send him packing down the Barnes/Mack trail?!?
 
While NB, Brad and others make great philosophical baseball points, we still suck! No energy, no enthusiasm, and apparently, no desire. I'm sorry to say, it's time for a change of leadership. Let us hope it's a pleasant and honorable transition.
 
Mistakes in baserunning have also hurt the offense. They're struggling to get on base in the first place--that much more frustrating when a valuable baserunner is picked off. Perhaps that's a function of being more aggressive to try to score runs with weak hitting, but it seems they're picked off more often than they are actually caught stealing. Lack of concentration?
 
I have been talking about the lack of hitting since after our appearance in the 2011 CWS. I talked about it last year when we finished third in the CWS. There was no talk about lack of enthusiasm, energy, or desire then and we still couldn't hit well or produce runs. The only difference was the overall success of the team, few cared if we could hit or not, as long as we won. The is nothing philosophical about the fine line we were walking between being in the CWS last year and not in the post season, the previous year. It's just a fact and I keep pointing it out. The pitching kept the ship afloat, under the stewardship of Skip Johnson, even the name Skip speaks of keeping a ship afloat. It's like nobody notices what he does. It's either Augie is great because we are winning or Augie should be fired because we are losing. People better wake up and see the greatness that is Skip Johnson, and do anything they can do keep him here at Texas.

I have been the point man on this subject, even when ridiculed for it. To quote Barbara Mandrell, "I was Country When Country Wasn't Cool" about it. There would be little or no discussion about it, if we were still winning. Now as I said, we have crossed over the fine line again and the losses have come in spades. So more and more people are jumping back on the "we can't hit or score bandwagon." The problem has been there for years. It's like a cancer. It's starts out small and gets bigger and bigger if left unchecked. The magnificent pitching of last year masked the hitting problem that never went away.

You will have to forgive me for being more than a bit amused by some of the posters now. Just like I talked about how little the difference was between the 2013 team and the 2014 team, well guess what. The same is true about this 2015 team and the 2014 team. The difference this year, that once again magnifies the lack or hitting and run production is the new ball. It was supposed to improve the hitting by default, it didn't. The pitching has naturally faltered some and it further exposes the offensive problems. The offense sucked last year too, but few people cared. I have talked about the bad base running for at least three seasons now. That seems a lot on Nicholson, who was even pulled from the third base coaching box at one point last season. They put Skip over there. He didn't want that job, and said so. He has complete control of the pitching staff and that includes it's recruiting. He has all he can handle with that, that's the other coaches job. If they can't handle it, then get somebody that can. Nicholson is also the hitting coach by the way.

I will make this clear as I can, so there will be no doubt about it. The hitting started declining years ago, it had gotten to the breaking point in 2013, despite very good pitching and defense. The defense also bails out the hitting by the way. The outstanding pitching in 2014, especially in the post season, helped hide the still horrible offense. Now this year it's back to the breaking point again because the pitching is again, just "very good."

So there you have it. I did offer some potential fixes for the problem. There is nothing philosophical about what I have talked about. I speak of facts on what is going on. It hasn't been fixed in years, so I said to bring in an outside hitting adviser that might could fix it. Just like they did for the defense for the football team and it did help.

Patterson probably doesn't have a great deal of interest in the baseball program right now. There is no big bucks involved here, like in basketball and even more so in football. He has in his mind, much bigger fish to fry, in new coaches in both those sports. Also the building of a new basketball facility. So I don't think he will be paying that much attention to the trials and tribulations of the baseball team, till those other two big money sports are settled down. Besides he just gave a contract extension to Augie after last season. The two extra years was probably discussed with Augie, about getting to the 2000 win mark. He's not going to up and fire him now. As I said that wouldn't look very good would it.

The only potential coaching change I see would be letting Nicholson go. I don't think there is any pressure on Patterson to make a head coaching change anyway, so he isn't going to do so on his own. Then after next season, there is just one year left on the contract. Augie does want that 2000 win mark and I don't think he will be fired before getting them in the last two years of his contract. Patterson doesn't want that kind of publicity, after the last two coaching changes were kind of botched. It's just another one of those nasty facts, some people don't want to see. Right or wrong, as the great Texas alumnus, Walter Cronkite would say, "that's the way it is." Then Augie will retire and they can make the no drama new coach hire. Besides imagine all the stuff Paterson will come up with to promote that last season of Augie's and the 2000th win, especially, if it looks like it could come during a home game.

I still remember when Coach Gus was let go for internal reasons and Augie was brought in. We weren't good those first couple of years and people were up in arms and weren't big Augie fans then. Talked about how Coach Gus was run out for no reason. I know Coach Gus, have the the utmost respect for him as a coach, but what was going on in the program was bad and the change had to be made. The situation is different with Augie, and it may very well be time for him to step down, because the job, just isn't getting done anymore. It's just not going to happen though at this point, because of the things I referenced above.

I am not a big philosopher, when it comes to baseball. I wasn't that way when I played and neither was any of my coaches. You either get it done on the field or you don't. There are reason why for why or why not you get it done though. So I try to be realistic about things and a new hitting coach in either an adviser role or getting rid of Nicholson and bring in somebody that can get the job done, is what I offer as possible solutions.

I have no big philosophy, I just call them as I see them, whether it's in a game thread or on matters like this. It's who I am and who I will always be.




 
It doesn't take numbers, stats, formulas, or more than a 3rd grade education to realize our hitting over the last 7 games has been TRASH. We royally suck at the plate now and it cost us 7 straight losses. The string of losses that all but end the conference title chase and threatened our post-season chances.

People are saying we dipped last year too and look what happened. Last year's team was way ahead of the 2015 win/loss pace after 32 games. This season is nothing like last year, and our hitters are not nearly as effective hitting OR bunting. .263 to .245 team average is a big drop. .356 obp now is .340 Being honest and critical is not ditching loyalty like many believe around here.

Face it, this team is pathetic at the plate at the moment. Make excuses all you want, but there won't be some remarkable turn-around with this team at the plate. Looking at their technical flaws and altered mainstream approach with swings, not happenin' without a return to small ball batting techniques.

As it stands, this bunch will be a longshot to grab a 3-seed. In reality, there will be a 50/50 shot they even make the post-season with our remaining conference schedule. Wait and see what this emotionally flat, technically confused bunch does at the plate vs. OU, TCU, and Tech. 6 of the top 10 pitchers in the Big 12 are still on our calendar...TCU (3), OU (1), TT (1), BU (1). Batter up! Swing for the fences some more, working so well.
 
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