Texas tourney watch

Knoxville-Horn

Knoxville-Horn

1,000+ Posts
I know this has been touched on in a couple of threads on this board but I wanted to open up a new one devoted solely to the subject.

After last night's win, things are looking up. We currently sit 17-9 with the following schedule:

@Okie St.
Baylor
@Tech
OU
@KU

I see us going 3-2 (KU = loss plus Okie St. or Baylor). We actually could go 4-1. OU seems like an obvious win; Kansas seems like an obvious loss.

My thinking is that the Big 12 gets 5 in at the absolute minimum. ATM, Okie St., OU and Tech are probably already out as they each have at least 12 losses already.

KU, Baylor, Mizzou are already in. That leaves Texas, K St. and Iowa St. to fight for 2 spots.

Barring an epic collapse, Iowa st. is sitting pretty. Barring an epic finish, K st. has the toughest road.
Texas just needs to hold serve and stay above K. St., IMO, to make The Dance.
 
Looking back there are four games Oregon State, NC State, Mizzou at home and Kansas at home that just really hurt and change even two of them and Texas is safely in at this point.

I agree that the Horns need to go 3-2 over last 5 and then beating Iowa State in a quarterfinal wouldnt hurt to be safely in. 4-1 and the Horns are in whatever happens in Big XII tourny.
 
The Baylor game is absolutely huge. I think winning that one and finishing off 4-1 (maybe 3-2 but that's pushing it) could push them over the top. This may be a season where they need to win a game or two in the conference tournament to squeeze in.
 
Anyone recall how the Big 12 Tourney works? Seems like the top 4 seeds have first round byes. Does that mean Texas would, hypothetically, play Tech in the first round (#5 v. #10)?

If so, that would (or should) guarantee at least 1 more win. Of course we'll probably have at least one more loss as well due to the tourney.
 
Beating tech is not going to put us in. But losing to them could keep us out. To get in the tourney, we need to beat someone who is definitely going also.
 
For what it's worth, Sagarin has the Big 12 as the 2nd best conference. That solidifies my opinion that we'll get 5 minimum and possibly 6.
 
Most recent BracketologyThe Link has 6 Big XII teams in the dance as of the 13th.

Texas is a projected 12 seed against the Zags, Wisconsin, UK, then tOSU in that bracket. Yeah, right.
smile.gif


I think Lundari is pretty close on these, but certainly it depends mostly right now on the Horns doing what they are supposed to do:

beat OSU, OU, and TT
lose to BU and KU

maybe win 1st round Big XII game.
 
There are obviously a number of scenarios that would get us into the NCAA Tournament.

The "bare minimum" scenario would be upsetting either BU or KU, with just one other win out of the final 6 (including Big XII tourney). Final record: 19-13. Probably a play-in game or straight up 12 seed.

The "expected" scenario (for me at this point) would be a 3-2 record over the final regular season games, and no win in the conference tournament. 20-12. Again, probably a play-in game or straight up 12 seed.

The "bonus" scenario would be a 3-2 record (losses to BU/KU) and a surprise run in the conference tournament. 22-13. I'd put us as an 8 seed (although it wouldn't surprise me if the committee made us a 9).

The "super bonus" scenario would be a 4-1 record (upset over either BU/KU) and maybe 1 more win in the conference tourney. 22-11. Maybe sneak into a 7 seed with the upset win.

The "super duper bonus" scenario would be 4-1, and win the conference tournament. 24-10. Possible 4 seed (maybe 3 with a little luck, but our RPI is weak). Undefeated at 25-9 would easily give us a 3-seed.

On the other end of the spectrum, if we go 2-3 with no conference tournament wins, our final record of 19-13 makes us the #1 seed for our region of the NIT. A 1-4 record with no tournament wins makes us 18-14 and around the #3-4 seed of our NIT region. An 0-6 record here on out eliminates us from the NIT.
 
Well, there's no excuse not to have at least 3 wins (Tech, OU, tourney game). I'll chalk KU up as a loss. At Okie St. and v. Baylor, I'd say we go 1-1.

What pisses me off is the RPI which currently has us at 49th. The RPI seems to overemphasize wins. For example, it has UConn (15-9) at 38th with the hardest schedule and Middle TN State (22-4) at 35th with the 190th hardest schedule. That's freakin' stupid IMO.

Ironically, with Sagarin, the opposite seems to be in effect. Texas was really, REALLY low at the beginning of the season due to our schedule. I actually watched us climb week-to-week as we played better teams AND lost.
Point being, if we were passed over by a team like Uconn for a spot, I wouldn't be as upset as if, say, we were passed over by the team like Drexel that is one spot above us with the 305th ranked schedule.
 
Completely agree with the OP. I think Lunardi is being ultra conservative with that 12 seed, even if we just "hold serve" with a 3-2 record and 1-1 record in conf tourney. If that were to occur, I think we're a 9 or 10 seed. If we finish 4-1 and make it to the championship game, we are possibly a 6 or 7 seed. If we go 2-3 down the stretch and/or get ousted early in the tourney, I think we're officially a bubble team, and at that point if we made the tourney, then we'd be a 12 seed.
 
Look at it this way. If the season ended today, we'd be in as a really low at-large team. This means that we can still screw it up and get knocked out. I really don't want it to come to this as you never know how many spots are truly available until the mid conference tourneys are finished.

On the flip side, win our next two games and we start playing for higher seeds.
 
The NCAA also look for team that are improving, especially at the end of the season! Texas is doing that! And I am pride of them. A lot freshmans gets a lot of minutes and they are learning very well.Good Job Guys
Now hats off to R.Barnes, great coaching and teaching job this year.
Hookem'
 
Let's hope Kabongo gets some Lin-spiration. If so, we'd go 4-1 without breaking a sweat. Fortunately or unfortunately, we'll go as far as he'll take us this year. He wants to go out on a high note and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt at this time of the season..
 
With Texas being 40-something in the RPI, someone please explain to me how beating three crappy teams while losing to two good ones will improve that ranking enough to get in.
 
It won't need to improve. There are 37 at-large teams. Of the 31 conference champs, I'm pretty certain some of them make up the group of teams ahead of us in the RPI. 3-3 (lose first round of conference tourney) should still be enough to get us in.
 
That reasoning makes sense, but if we end the season 3-3 including conference tourney wouldn't it be reasonable to assume our RPI would drop to the mid 50's? I don't remember many ranked that low getting at large bids.
 
Kansas State won in Waco today. That sucks for us. Baylor comes to Austin fully focused, if ever they aren't versus Texas. And Kansas State gets a top 25 RPI win that Texas lost. If we lose at Okie State and on Monday we can pack our bags for the NIT in my view, unless we somehow win the Big 12 tournament.
 
In my opinion the loss to OSU today sealed our NIT fate unless we at least make the conference tourney finals. OSU had a 107 RPI ranking coming into today.
 
I still think an upset of either BU or KU will be enough to get a solid 10-11 seed if we win the other games we're supposed to (Tech/OU).
 
Okie State is a really tough place to win on the road and the Horns just didnt have it today. This makes Monday a must win to have any shot at the NCAA tournament. I felt 3-2 over last five would be enough and that is still possible but now is going to take an upset.
 
Big 12 will get at least 5 but probably 6 teams in, as long as we beat Tech and OU we should be ok as at a minimum the 6th team. The only wrench in those plans would be if OSU gets hot and goes on a run to finish the season.

Either way we will have a chance at the end of the season because we will be playing BU, KSU, or Iowa St. in the first game in the tourney. If we fall to 7 due to tie-breakers, we'll at least get to pick up another W against Tech in the first game.
 
Back to being squarely on the bubble again. Same scenario as the Missouri game a couple of weeks ago.

Need a big time win over a ranked team. That team is coming to the Erwin Center fresh off a loss. In this case, the team is Baylor. We really need to win this game.

Kansas St. now has two of those kind of wins over Missouri and now Baylor. They certainly at this point in time have an edge over us to get into the Tourney.
 
Checkout the Big 12 tournament GENERATOR. An ISU grad wrote it, so excuse the gold/garnet color craziness. Anyway, you plug in the wins/losses you expect for the rest of the Big 12 season and it spits out a tournament bracket based on those choices.

KSU has some really good wins, and a few perplexing losses (swept by OU?), but that win at Baylor was huge for them. Baylor is only 5-5 in their last 10 games. It is certainly a winnable game for UT. I still think UT has great chance to make the tournament. You can finish out the season 3-1. Do that and you most likely get a 6 seed to play ISU in the 2nd round of the Big 12.

I went to the game yesterday. UT has not been kind to Keiton Page over his career, so it was a nice surprise to see him finally go off like that. All season long, I have been amazed that teams buy into his little pump fake over and over again. I have truly enjoyed watching him play here, as he gives his all every game.

J'Covan Brown is a steadying influence for you guys. And Kabongo is a gamer - wish we had him. Barnes always has a knack for getting a crazy quick PG. Hell, he's had a knack for getting talent up and down the roster for years, so this 'off' year for UT is surprising to me.

I wish our off years were like yours...
 
We dont need any upsets to make the NCAAs. We are a slight favorite over BU, as it should be at home.We will be favored over OU and at Tech. Win those three and we are in. Simple as that.
 
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