Screwed

[m/]

You continue to mix mandatory and discretionary spending in your examples, and several of your premises are faulty because of that.

Discretionary spending is not allocated in perpetuity. It undergoes an annual appropriations process.

There is enough tax revenue to pay mandatory spending (Medicare, Medicaid, etc.), any "bills" incurred before Oct. 1 or whenever the discretionary function was shut down, and to pay the interest and principal on the debt -- all without breaching the (former) debt ceiling, and without default.

Also, reference the Sovereign Acts Doctrine vis-a-vis government contracting. Successful claims by private government contractors for monetary damages because of a shutdown are relatively rare.

 

[saahorn]

The Link

 

[Horn6721]

" Card-carrying (with oncrrectly spelled signs) TP members expressing themselves is quite entertaining. "

What could be funnier?

 

[Mr. Deez]

In reply to:

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[m/]

Here's the federal budget numbers:

Budget projections

As you can see, there is currently a $642 billion deficit (2013), so we'll use that as the baseline -- annually, we spend $642 billion more than we have in revenue. (And the deficit is shrinking -- right, Democrats?)

So to avoid default (absent further Congressional action) without raising the debt ceiling to allow for more borrowing to cover the deficit, the executive branch would have to cut $642 billion in discretionary spending, which is legal (absent a budget or continuing resolution), and adhere to mandatory spending, which includes payments on the debt.

Now, let's total the Pay our Military Act and other piecemeal bills that were passed and/or considered by Congress.

The Washington Post estimates that all those piecemeal Congressional appropriations, including the Pay our Military Act ($200 billion), would leave $675 billion in otherwise unfunded expenditures, which is completely discretionary, and able to be axed. Additionally, the sequester (Budget Control Act of 2011) lowers the growth of that discretionary figure as time goes on.
Washington Posthttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/house-appropriations-bills-during-shutdown/

Ax that $675 billion, and that equals about $33 billion in wiggle room before needing to borrow (and breaching the debt ceiling). Not exactly apples and oranges, but for simplicity's sake, it'll work.

The President could pay all the tacked-on Congressionally-approved spending like Pay our Military (discretionary) and all mandatory spending (which includes the debt) and still have $33 billion left over for contingencies. Additionally, I think the power of the government to legally get out of private contractual obligations is underestimated.

This also fails to take into account the probability of increased tax revenues without any tax legislation (i.e., an improving economy), which in theory could outpace the growth of mandatory programs, interest on the debt, and targeted discretionary spending.

In short, the shutdown was a de facto balanced budget. All mandatory bills (including the debt), and all tacked-on discretionary bills, would have been paid. There would be no IMMINENT default.

 

[Mr. Deez]

I question your math, because many programs considered "discretionary" by the conventional wisdom continue to spend money and operate during a shutdown. Like I mentioned, very little of the military ever shuts down even during a shutdown.

For example, I go to the US Army Garrison Wiesbaden (Germany) every day. During the shutdown, it looked about the same as it usually looks. The post office was closed, and a small minority of civilian employees were furloughed. However, all military personnel and most civilians stayed on the job. Military aircraft and helicopters were still flying in and out of the airfield using fuel that the taxpayers were buying. The overseas commissaries were all still open. (Stateside commissaries, which are a waste of money and shouldn't exist, were closed.) In fact, I bought groceries there during the shutdown. Food was being delivered in government-operated trucks with fuel paid for by taxpayers. It was being delivered from Ramstein Air Base, after being dropped off there on government-funded cargo planes. The lights and refrigerators in the store were on with government-funded power. Even though my wife was furloughed, her boss' boss (who wasn't furloughed) doled out tens of thousands of dollars in grants to pay tuition for children of military families. Tons of government money was being spent all over that base, even though the conventional wisdom would call it "discretionary" and even though it wasn't covered by the Pay Our Military Act. I don't know where that money fits into your question. However, for the purposes of discussion, I'll stipulate to your numbers, because like I said, the shutdown is a short-term diversion. It's not the real issue.

What happens when the shutdown ends but the debt limit isn't raised? That's the real question, because its implications are long term, not just for a few days of a shutdown. Does Congress just balance the budget overnight?