Russia Bombs CIA-backed Rebels in Syria

Thought this was funny.

20151126_insane.jpg
 
Joe Fan said:
......
And now, only recently, Turkey finally took a position against ISIS, and began to use its own military. Of course, while they bombed some ISIS targets, they also bombed the Kurds in Iraq. This is also when they finally allowed the US to use Incirlik as a base to bomb ISIS.
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I finally figured out the details of how Turkey recently changed it position to let the US use the base at Incirlik for missions inside Syria. And it, of course, involves the Kurds.

The Syrian Kurdish force is called the YPG. This is one of the groups the US supports. In order to change what had been a solely "Kurdish face" of the anti-ISIS ground force in that part of Syria, they aligned themselves with some Arab brigades to form the SDF (Syria Democratic Forces). And they have been successful pushing ISIS away from areas along the border with Turkey.

The SDF is now fighting Turkey-backed factions in the northern countryside of Aleppo. This is a key land area inside Syria (the area west of the Euphrates River, which Turkey considers a "red line"). The SDF had already captured some towns close to the Turkish border (example - Kilis, which is an important supply line from Turkey into Syria).

What the YPG wants is to link all the predominantly-Kurdish villages all the way to the Iraqi border. But, to make this actually happen, they must also take control of another key bordertown -- Jarablous -- from ISIS. Over the summer, there was a planned Kurdish offensive to do just that, with US air support. Taking it would also hurt ISIS by closing one of their remaining supply lines.

This is when the Turks blinked. As I mentioned above, the Turks biggest fear has always been Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria which might stir up similar sentiments among Kurds in Turkey. This was true both before and after the Russian jet was shot down.

So, in exchange for the Kurds not advancing on the Aleppo region, the US got use of the Incirlik air base (inside Turkey) to bomb ISIS.

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There is now one more part to all of this - the Russians. Since the jet downing, Putin not only wants to secure Assad's but to also stick it to Turkey. What Putin seems to be trying to engineer now is unification between the Assad Govt and the YPG. It hasnt happened yet but it becomes possible if Assad were now willing to drive ISIS out. If so, we could be left with a situation where ISIS is driven out of northern Syria and replaced by a secular, democratic swath dominated by the Kurds. Which would probably also be protected as a no fly zone.
 
Decent timeline ... although I would have added a dot on the timeline that, after Bush's much-criticized "Surge," AQI (AL Queda in Iraq - the precursor to ISIS) had been almost completely destroyed (~700 members left alive) and boxed in to a small area .... click to enlarge

20151117_ISI3.jpg
 
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Russian propaganda is now pushing an obscure Greek prophesy -- Plenty of modern Russians still believe in this Orthodox Jihad stuff.

Paisios was an ascetic monk who later became Saint Paisios by the Holy Synod of the Greek Orthodox Church. He was known for prophecies and predictions. One of them was that Istanbul, once the capital of the Byzantine Empire Constantinople, will become Greek again.

“Events will start that will culminate with us taking back Constantinople. Constantinople will be given to us. There will be war between Russia and Turkey. In the beginning the Turks will believe they are winning, but this will lead to their destruction. The Russians, eventually, will win and take over Constantinople. After that it will be ours. They will be forced to give it to us.”

“(The Turks) will be destroyed. They will be eradicated because they are a nation that was built without God’s blessing. One third of the Turks will go back to where they came from, the depths of Turkey. One third will be saved because they will become Christians, and the other third will be killed in this war.”

* * *

“Turkey will be dissected. This will be to our benefit as a nation. This way our villages will be liberated, our enslaved homelands. Constantinople will be liberated, will become Greek again. Hagia Sophia will open again...”


“Turkey will be dissected in 3 or 4 parts. The countdown has begun. We will take the lands that belong to us, the Armenians will take theirs and the Kurds their own. The Kurdish issue is at the works....”

http://www.pravoslavie.ru/english/88169.htm
 
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Joe Fan said:
Decent timeline ... although I would have added a dot on the timeline that, after Bush's much-criticized "Surge," AQI (AL Queda in Iraq - the precursor to ISIS) had been almost completely destroyed (~700 members left alive) and boxed in to a small area .... click to enlarge

20151117_ISI3.jpg
Click to expand...

That's a good neutral timeline. You want a bullet-point on the surge. I'd argue it's missing the first bullet point of clearly pointing out the Bagdadi/Al Queda started after the fall of Sadam.
 
Interesting Atlantic report from earlier this year...
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/01/why-assad-no-longer-has-to-go/384664/

Why Assad No Longer 'Has to Go'
The Atlantic -- Jan 20, 015

Excerpt:
Even if Assad does ultimately step aside at some future date, some of the countries that initially sought his removal, like the United States and members of the EU, have at least two good reasons to keep part of his regime intact: Iraq and Libya. When the dictators of those two countries were deposed, power vacuums emerged in both places, leading to chaos and pitched sectarian violence.

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Frankly, I have never understood the insistence on Assad going, other than thwarting both Russia and Iran, possibly paving the way for gas deliveries from Qatar through Syria and Turkey on the way to Europe. Qatar has the 3rd largest proven gas reserves in the world, is a major exporter of LNG and barely consumes much gas herself. With Assad removed, any new regime can likely toss out Russia and Russian military presence, easing the path for Qatar to provide enough gas to Europe to further strangle Russia's economic and political influence.

If I'm a betting man, I bet that the sole reason for removing Assad is for whatever serves the interests of Washington, in this case I think it's more about Russia and/or Iran than any humanitarian concerns. But then I feel that's the reasoning behind everything Washington does. It serves Washington.

Like... remove so-and-so because it's to our interests. Oh, wait. It's no longer to our interests, he can stay. Sort of. In a marginal way. To be worked out. Okay.
 
LtSwtCrude said:
Frankly, I have never understood the insistence on Assad going,......
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Assad is as bad as they say he is. There are some horrible pictures out there of what he and his family have done over the decades. Nazi-like stuff. You can find the pics out there if you want. The argument to remove him is similar to the one for removing Saddam. Which makes Obama's position on Assad inconsistent and hard to reconcile.
 
Joe Fan said:
I finally figured out the details of how Turkey recently changed it position to let the US use the base at Incirlik for missions inside Syria. And it, of course, involves the Kurds.

The Syrian Kurdish force is called the YPG. This is one of the groups the US supports. In order to change what had been a solely "Kurdish face" of the anti-ISIS ground force in that part of Syria, they aligned themselves with some Arab brigades to form the SDF (Syria Democratic Forces). And they have been successful pushing ISIS away from areas along the border with Turkey.

The SDF is now fighting Turkey-backed factions in the northern countryside of Aleppo. This is a key land area inside Syria (the area west of the Euphrates River, which Turkey considers a "red line"). The SDF had already captured some towns close to the Turkish border (example - Kilis, which is an important supply line from Turkey into Syria).

What the YPG wants is to link all the predominantly-Kurdish villages all the way to the Iraqi border. But, to make this actually happen, they must also take control of another key bordertown -- Jarablous -- from ISIS. Over the summer, there was a planned Kurdish offensive to do just that, with US air support. Taking it would also hurt ISIS by closing one of their remaining supply lines.

This is when the Turks blinked. As I mentioned above, the Turks biggest fear has always been Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria which might stir up similar sentiments among Kurds in Turkey. This was true both before and after the Russian jet was shot down.

So, in exchange for the Kurds not advancing on the Aleppo region, the US got use of the Incirlik air base (inside Turkey) to bomb ISIS.

--------------
There is now one more part to all of this - the Russians. Since the jet downing, Putin not only wants to secure Assad's but to also stick it to Turkey. What Putin seems to be trying to engineer now is unification between the Assad Govt and the YPG. It hasnt happened yet but it becomes possible if Assad were now willing to drive ISIS out. If so, we could be left with a situation where ISIS is driven out of northern Syria and replaced by a secular, democratic swath dominated by the Kurds. Which would probably also be protected as a no fly zone.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with any of this, but I wonder why we'd change part of our strategy or goals just to use Incrlik. It's an ideal location from which to bomb Syria, but it's not our only option. Aviano AB in Italy as well as an aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean would work, and with in-flight refueling, we could do it from anywhere in Europe.
 
Joe Fan said:
Assad is as bad as they say he is. There are some horrible pictures out there of what he and his family have done over the decades. Nazi-like stuff. You can find the pics out there if you want. The argument to remove him is similar to the one for removing Saddam. Which makes Obama's position on Assad inconsistent and hard to reconcile.
Click to expand...

This guy has some interesting twitter commentary. Self-described as "Islamic libertarian." He was active, on the ground during Arab Spring.




 
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LtSwtCrude said:
.....
Even if Assad does ultimately step aside at some future date, some of the countries that initially sought his removal, like the United States and members of the EU, have at least two good reasons to keep part of his regime intact: Iraq and Libya. .....
Click to expand...

The theory goes like this -- we cannot beat IS in Syria without the cooperation of at least some of the Sunni Arab forces. The Sunni Arabs will not participate unless they are confident ISIS will not be replaced by radical sectarian forces of the Assad regime or Iran (Iran effectively controls the Assad regime and has deployed tens of thousands of Shia jihadis into Syria).

Iran and Isis are symbiotic. They feed off each other by committing atrocities against other's constituents against which they can claim to be the only protectors. If the "coalition" appears to side with Assad/Iran -- by bombing Sunnis yet doing nothing as Iran moves tons of Shia terrorists into Syria -- it only solidifies ISIS' place as guardian of the Sunnis.

Sunni Arabs are needed to defeat ISIS because it is in Sunni Arab areas that ISIS has its caliphate. Despite the propaganda to the contrary (ex, Putin), moderate Syrian rebels do exist. The amount is estimated at ~ 75,000 with another 25,000 less-than-moderate rebels (Al-Qaeda & pro-al-Qaeda forces number only ~15,000). What is needed for these moderate rebels is something to fight for— i.e., the promise of self-rule, protected from both Iran and ISIS. In terms of territory, these forces have actually cleared ISIS from more areas than the Kurds (although the Kurds do a better job of holding what they take back). Also the Kurds wont liberate/hold outside their own areas. So, it's the moderates or nothing.

The way out of this long term is to support the moderates and do what needs to be done to force Assad out. Otherwise, as long as Assad remains, so does ISIS. Obama not targeting Assad is one big problem while the Iranians/Russians are another. But the rebels are what is needed against Assad with the hope that they can peel off the non-criminal elements of the Syrian army/services to form a transitional government that can sweep the Takfiri Caliphate out. This is probably the only way Syria will be stabilized.
 
If not already posted... from Huffington Post
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-l-phillips/research-paper-isis-turke_b_6128950.html?ir=Australia

Report concludes with-- Author's Note: Information presented in this paper is offered without bias or endorsement.

Research Paper: ISIS-Turkey List
Nov. 30, 2015

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY
IN THE CITY OF NEW YORK
INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF HUMAN RIGHTS
Research Paper: ISIS-Turkey Links
By David L. Phillips

[ Here's just a slice form it... ]
• Anwar Moslem, Mayor of Kobani, said on September 19, 2014: "Based on the intelligence we got two days before the breakout of the current war, trains full of forces and ammunition, which were passing by north of Kobane, had an-hour-and-ten-to-twenty-minute-long stops in these villages: Salib Qaran, Gire Sor, Moshrefat Ezzo. There are evidences, witnesses, and videos about this. Why is ISIS strong only in Kobane's east? Why is it not strong either in its south or west? Since these trains stopped in villages located in the east of Kobane, we guess they had brought ammunition and additional force for the ISIS." In the second article on September 30, 2014, a CHP delegation visited Kobani, where locals claimed that everything from the clothes ISIS militants wear to their guns comes from Turkey.
 
Joe Fan said:
Here is some support for the above^
A French journalist who was just freed after 10-months as a captive of ISIS says: "As soon as the people have hope for a political solution, IS will just collapse."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...s-says-how-they-can-be-defeated-a6757336.html
Click to expand...
What makes a political solution difficult is the US wants Assad out, or insisted on that for a long time... I'm getting lost on the latest stance...

It's been proven in our lifetime that removing tyrants is not necessarily replaced by liberty, but by chaos. Why ask for more chaos in Syria?
 
Let's not over embellish, Joe.

Google Translate:
Putin discussed with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, the first blow to the militants missiles "Calibre" submarine "Rostov-on-Don" from the Mediterranean Sea. "Once again, the cruise missile" Caliber "has proven its effectiveness over long distances," - said Shoigu.

"This new, modern and high-performance, high-precision weapons, - said the president. - And it can be equipped with both a conventional warhead and a special warhead that is filled with nuclear. "

"Naturally, in the fight against terrorism that do not need anything, I hope, never need" - concluded Putin.

Russia is pursuing a military operation in Syria since the end of September.The objectives of the airstrikes Moscow calls the position of "Islamic state" and other terrorist groups.

October 30, Vladimir Putin instructed to check and replenish protection of citizens against nuclear, chemical and bacteriological threats. Earlier, he said that the deployment of missile defense from Russian borders threatens the country's nuclear potential.​
 
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