Russia attacking Ukraine 2/16?

Monahorns said:
I bet the Pentagon told him to say that. Or maybe they will. I still doubt it.
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Zelensky has hardly been using the US talking points to date. He's been openly critical of the Biden Admin for calling an attack "imminent". It's doubtful that Russia would attack on 2/16 now but they will attack. It's a matter of when, not if.

Former Ukraine President Poroshenko signed a constitutional amendment in 2019 to commit to seeking NATO and EU membership. Russia's actions show they simply didn't move fast enough.
 
Chop said:
Biden better tell his secretary (of defense) to put it on his calendar...
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There is no answer possible from the West. "Sanctions" are laughable. Putin knows this and now is poised to begin re-implementation of the Iron Curtain, righting a "wrong" in his mind.

After decades of war in the ME the West isn't remotely ready to take on a well equipped foe. Russia will retake Ukraine quickly, not too different than the way we rolled through Iraq. Then the guerilla war will ensue in Ukraine. As long as China backs Russia they'll continue to poke the West. We're quickly moving into Cold War II. The only difference is that Russia and China will be aligned in this Cold War.

Expect NATO countries to setup a "wall" around the Russia controlled countries. Additionally, Putin will be compared to Hitler and the West will be Chamberlain in all subsequent analyses.
 
Seattle Husker said:
There is no answer possible from the West. "Sanctions" are laughable. Putin knows this and now is poised to begin re-implementation of the Iron Curtain, righting a "wrong" in his mind.

After decades of war in the ME the West isn't remotely ready to take on a well equipped foe. Russia will retake Ukraine quickly, not too different than the way we rolled through Iraq. Then the guerilla war will ensue in Ukraine. As long as China backs Russia they'll continue to poke the West. We're quickly moving into Cold War II. The only difference is that Russia and China will be aligned in this Cold War.
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Depending on the resolve of the Ukrainians, and how they are treated by their bully-cousins, it could turn into a nasty occupation--like Afghanistan. If that happens, it may be a Pyric victory at best for Russia.

One nasty way around all that is brutal and anti-modern, but has been done by the Russians a lot before--ethnic cleansing of the areas of land Russia intends to keep. Of course, that may turn everyone against them except China, Iran, Syria, N. Korea, Venezuela, and the tropical workers paradise of Cuba. (I may be forgetting a few other champions of human rights in my laundry list of countries there...)
 
Chop said:
Depending on the resolve of the Ukrainians, and how they are treated by their bully-cousins, it could turn into a nasty occupation--like Afghanistan. If that happens, it may be a Pyric victory at best for Russia.

One nasty way around all that is brutal and anti-modern, but has been done by the Russians a lot before--ethnic cleansing of the areas of land Russia intends to keep.
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I'm betting on the latter. The more "western" countries become the more civilized, softer they become. Ukraine is now the land of Eastern European software developers. The major metropolis population won't stand up and fight. You'll get some significant skirmishes from the rural population, especially those that live in the West of the country.

With the way the Chinese have treated the Uighurs, Putin certainly thinks he could do the same for the non-Russians in Ukraine. It won't be gas chambers but "re-education camps" teaching these individuals job skills. :p
 
Seems DC didn't get the memo...they are still sticking to their 'imminent' claim of literally within the next few hours...

Coincidentally, or not, Trudeau is ALSO slated to address the Canadian Parliament over the invocation of the Emergency Measures Act in THAT nation.

Somewhere, Soros is rubbing his hands with glee...
 
Eastern Ukraine won't fight Russia. If it does happen it will be like Crimea most likely.

Of course Putin could have done this 7 years ago after Donbas voted to be annexed and Putin said no. Doesn't make sense to annex now that NATO isn't going to add Ukraine. If that was happening then I think Putin would take over Donbas.
 
What does our quondam et futurem President think of all this? Surely he has an opinion. Or advice for Biden?
 
Monahorns said:
Eastern Ukraine won't fight Russia. If it does happen it will be like Crimea most likely.

Of course Putin could have done this 7 years ago after Donbas voted to be annexed and Putin said no. Doesn't make sense to annex now that NATO isn't going to add Ukraine. If that was happening then I think Putin would take over Donbas.
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Eastern Ukraine will largely side with Russia due to decades of Russia moving it's own citiizens into the Eastern Bloc during the days of U.S.S.R. My guess is that Crimea was merely the first step. It gave Russia full control of the Sea of Azov and Black Sea, at least Ukraine's access to it. It landlocked Ukraine for when war comes to fruition. The separatist war in Eastern Ukraine over the last decade also gave Russia insights into Ukraine military capabilities and the resolve of the West.

Why is Russia doing this now? Isn't it well known that Putin felt the fall of the Soviet Bloc was avoidable and yearns for that former relevance? He's already propping up Belarus. He was propping up Ukraine too before the "Orange Revolution", most assuredly helped by the CIA.
 
Seattle Husker said:
Why is Russia doing this now? Isn't it well known that Putin felt the fall of the Soviet Bloc was avoidable and yearns for that former relevance? He's already propping up Belarus. He was propping up Ukraine too before the "Orange Revolution", most assuredly helped by the CIA.
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I don't think so. I think he is enforcing a defensive perimeter.
 
Monahorns said:
I don't think so. I think he is enforcing a defensive perimeter.
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A defensive perimeter? Who is he fearful of? A Ukrainian invasion of Russia? Poland? Not sure they've been an aggressor to anyone in a few hundred years. NATO has only used it's power as an aggressor in Iraq and Afghanistan. Most notably...NOT nuclear powers.
 
Seattle Husker said:
A defensive perimeter? Who is he fearful of? A Ukrainian invasion of Russia? Poland? Not sure they've been an aggressor to anyone in a few hundred years. NATO has only used it's power as an aggressor in Iraq and Afghanistan. Most notably...NOT nuclear powers.
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Russia historically has been attacked from the West. So they want to make sure an enemy hits some resistance before they get to the border. NATO is encroaching on that being in Poland and the Baltics. They will not let Belarus or Ukraine go to NATO and start causing them problems.
 
Monahorns said:
Russia historically has been attacked from the West. So they want to make sure an enemy hits some resistance before they get to the border. NATO is encroaching on that being in Poland and the Baltics. They will not let Belarus or Ukraine go to NATO and start causing them problems.
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The argument that you need to invade a country that is no threat to you for defensive purposes is akin to Russia claiming the soldiers in Crimea weren't Russian simply because they removed their patches. It's an argument with many holes to make it implausible. It may be what Russia claims but even they don't believe it because it could be used to justify any attack of any country.

This is about power, sphere of influence. Russia's sphere of influence has been eroding for decades. The fall of the Iron Curtain was it's most dramatic point but Eastern Europe has been turning it's gaze to the West for many decades. Autocrats, propped up by Russia, have been falling as citizens demand freedom and greater economic progress prompted by Western clandestine orgs. Russia can't compete with economic opportunities or even clandestine operations to they fall back to what they know...military threats. Putin is returning to the Cold War playbook.

This isn't about NATO expansion though that's a useful excuse. NATO isn't really a threat to Russia's territorial borders but rather its sphere of influence. It's harder to exert military threats when the country is allied with the West. Putin wants to stop any more defectors from it's sphere of influence. It's why they initially sent military help to Belarus when they were at risk.
 
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The sphere of influence is what I am talking about. The purpose is to provide a defensive perimeter. Whether you think they should or not, Russia fears NATO.
 
What does our genius ex president have to say about all this? He used to have really good, really great relations with that Russian President. When is our greatest president ever going to exert some of his charismatic powers and save Europe from its pusillanimity?

He seems strangely quiet. Maybe he is busy trying to find a new accounting firm.
 
Monahorns said:
The sphere of influence is what I am talking about. The purpose is to provide a defensive perimeter. Whether you think they should or not, Russia fears NATO.
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What you are claiming is a "defensive perimeter" is what I'm claiming is a puppet country. Why Russia wants to do this is where we likely disagree. Yes, it may keep NATO a little further away but Russia isn't worried NATO will suddenly invade. It's worried that it's ability to control these countries, dictate how they operate, who they make deals with, and ally with will be influenced by the West more than Russia. That's the sphere of influence I'm talking about. Controlling Ukraine gives Russia greater manipulation over existing natural gas pipelines through Ukraine.
 
One corrupt country invading another corrupt country. The people of Ukraine want freedom and are willing to fight for it. We should give them a short range nuclear bomb that would reach Moscow and be done with it. Also, shut down the pipeline, open up Keystone and get the Germans the oil they need while improving our economy.

The only reason they are waking Sleepy up for this is that his income is about to take a hit (Hunter gets that).
 
Two things can be true at the same time. First, the claim that Russia truly fears NATO expansion is ********. NATO isn't a real threat to Russia, because nobody thinks that any NATO member is going to invade Russia without a massive and very direct provocation. If Russia turns London into a sea of glass or sends a million troops into Poland, then yes, NATO will invade Russia, but it would take something like that.

This use of historic record of invasions is frankly laughable. Yes, Hitler and Napoleon invaded Russia generations ago. Olaf Scholz is hardly Adolf Hitler, and modern Germany is hardly Nazi Germany in any sense. Emmanuel Macron is hardly Napoleon, and modern France is hardly Napoleonic France in any sense. A bunch (meaning several million) of German and French Euroweanies are going to go invade Russia in their skinny jeans and carrying their man-purses? Sorry, I just don't see it. I hate to boil it down to a testosterone thing, but even if they wanted to invade (which they don't), their people would never have the balls for anything remotely that dangerous. Hell, a much stronger and more militaristic France wasn't even willing to defend its own homeland from Nazi Germany. Mexico is a bigger threat to invade the United States to retake Texas than NATO is a threat to invade Russia.

Second, we still shouldn't try to bring Ukraine into NATO. Why not? Because as preposterous as it is to think NATO will attack Russia, it's also preposterous to think NATO would ever go to war to defend Ukraine if Russia attacked them. Trying to bring them in does nothing but fuel Putin's phony NATO fear trope and invite him to test NATO.

I can rip on Biden and say he's being too weak. Maybe we should be sending more troops to Eastern Europe or arming Ukraine more, but nobody from either party would be doing anything major on this. The political will in the West simply isn't there.
 
huisache said:
What does our genius ex president have to say about all this? He used to have really good, really great relations with that Russian President. When is our greatest president ever going to exert some of his charismatic powers and save Europe from its pusillanimity?

He seems strangely quiet. Maybe he is busy trying to find a new accounting firm.
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Maybe you should be worried about the President that we have and not the one we had. After all, you voted for him because you play lawyer for illegal aliens.

I guess Trump wasn't good for the shyster lawyer business when it came to illegals entering the country.

Regardless, get your old *** back in the basement and take that peach schnapps with you.
 
iatrogenic said:
Maybe you should be worried about the President that we have and not the one we had. After all, you voted for him because you play lawyer for illegal aliens.

I guess Trump wasn't good for the shyster lawyer business when it came to illegals entering the country.

Regardless, get your old *** back in the basement and take that peach schnapps with you.
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I didn’t vote for Biden or your Pied Piper. I don’t follow morons over cliffs.
 
huisache said:
What does our genius ex president have to say about all this? He used to have really good, really great relations with that Russian President. When is our greatest president ever going to exert some of his charismatic powers and save Europe from its pusillanimity?

He seems strangely quiet. Maybe he is busy trying to find a new accounting firm.
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Trump is smart enough to know that the moment he discusses it, some whining liberal is going to claim he is violating the Foreign Agent provisions of law by not having registered before speaking...it would be a crap claim, but you KNOW it would still be advanced, especially by some west-coast libtile like Schiff or Swalwell, and echoed on these boards.
 
Seattle Husker said:
What you are claiming is a "defensive perimeter" is what I'm claiming is a puppet country. Why Russia wants to do this is where we likely disagree. Yes, it may keep NATO a little further away but Russia isn't worried NATO will suddenly invade. It's worried that it's ability to control these countries, dictate how they operate, who they make deals with, and ally with will be influenced by the West more than Russia. That's the sphere of influence I'm talking about. Controlling Ukraine gives Russia greater manipulation over existing natural gas pipelines through Ukraine.
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I don't think they are afraid of immanent invasion. But I also think they are concerned about the proximity of the enemies to them. We should be working on changing their mind about NATO being the enemy.
 
Monahorns said:
I don't think they are afraid of immanent invasion. But I also think they are concerned about the proximity of the enemies to them. We should be working on changing their mind about NATO being the enemy.
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Not sure that's possible. NATO was setup as a defensive alliance and aside from Iraq it's held true to that goal. NATO is a useful rube for Russia. They are more concerned about resource, economic, and political control of their neighbors, IMHO.

Russia does have to be concerned with an "Orange revolution" spreading into Russia proper which it likely driving their desire to control Ukraine. As a corrupt oligarchy that has near 100% control of the media, they need to be concerned about a disgruntled populace.
 
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