Recruiting Analysis and 2013

sbmcruise

sbmcruise

100+ Posts
From a quick analysis of the 2010 and 2011 Collegiate Baseball #1 recruiting classes it appears that it is nearly impossible to get recruits on campus if they are drafted much earlier than the 10th round. See:

2010 and 2011

This tells me that out recruiting efforts regarding the following members of our recruiting class to enter Fall 2012 were essentially wasted:

Courtney Hawkins-1st round
Steve Bean-1st round comp
Tyler Gonzales-1st round comp
Wyatt Mathisen-1st round comp
Spencer Edwards-2nd round
Austin Dean-4th round.

Collegiate Baseball ranked our 2010 class #14 and our 2011 class #12 in September after the time had passed for the drafted players to sign.

I predict that out 2012 class will be much worse since only 7 players will likely remain (assuming Spencer Edwards signs as he has stated that he will) and none of them were drafted any higher than the 22nd round and 4 weren’t drafted at all.

Since Austin Dean signed, it doesn’t appear that we have the power hitting 1B we sorely needed with our generally weak-hitting pitching and defense strategy.

It also isn’t apparent we have a CWS level SS or CF, although we have some players at these positions that could develop.

I will truly miss Tommy Harmon, but this analysis suggests that a change in recruiting philosophy was overdue and that 2013 isn’t going to be significantly better than 2012 unless we can find some overlooked gems during summer ball.

I also hope we can someday bat around .300 with a new hitting coach.
 
C. J. Hinojosa isn’t yet on campus. I remember enough about his softening commitment to Texas his senior year in high school and have read enough quotes about his “advisor” to avoid getting my hopes up until after the July 13 signing deadline.

Apparently MLB teams lost most of their interest in him when he needed surgery on his non-throwing shoulder to tighten loose ligaments that had allowed the shoulder to pop out of joint. He was drafted by the Astros in the 26th round with a suggested slot of $125,000 so it seems unlikely they would pay him his published asking money of $2.9M.

Reports are that C. J. projects as a middle infielder who can hit with power to all fields and who has an above-average arm that compensates for any lack of range. Accordingly, C.J. could be the CWS level shortstop we need and provide some power to compensate with our generally weak hitting.
 
The problem is that you have to recruit before they draft.

I would assume that our targets would be alot different if we knew where everyone was going to be drafted. Baseball recruiting is alot different then football or basketball.
 
The 3rd place team in district 17-5A just won the state championship. I'd be interested to know if ANYONE in that district heard from ANYONE at Texas.
 
It is certainly true that you have recruit players before they are drafted, but I would expect that a skilled, 20+ year-experienced recruiter to usually be able to tell the difference between a 1st round pick and a 10th round pick. Sites like Perfect Game etc. can be used to cross-check one’s own evaluations. Sure, a particular player can get hot and his stock can radically rise. Conversely, an injury or bad game or two can cause a player’s stock to free fall. It is somewhat an art form, but I think others’ art has been consistently better than Texas’s lately.

Since signability is so much of a factor in drafted order, the coaches have the opportunity to get that from the horse’s mouth when talking to the kid face to face in private and hopefully they will get somewhat more truthful than Josh Bell put out last year.

When I took a look at the rosters of the CWS teams, I see a lot of kids from all over the county and then I look at our roster and see that it is almost all from Texas. I know that Texas is much bigger than these other states and baseball is popular here, but it does look like our recruiters aren’t willing to recruit very far out of Texas. None of the recruits entering Fall 2012 are from outside Texas except JUCO Codey McElroy who is from Oklahoma. Out current roster has only

Matt Moynihan Jr-TR San Diego, Calif. (Orange Coast College)
Mark Payton So-1L Chicago, Ill. (St. Rita)
Dillon Peters Fr.-HS Indianapolis, Ind. (Cathedral)

as out of state players.

I hate to say it but will: Texas has had very few black players in the last 10 years. I give Texas credit for recruiting quality black players such as Josh Bell, but we aren’t getting many of them on campus. Surely liberal Austin, TX isn’t the problem, so what is? Black athletes prosper in other sports at Texas.
 
My son is currently playing HS ball and I have to tell you that I'm shocked at how few black baseball players there are in high school. Generally if you play against a predominantly African American school then there baseball team is just awful. It is sad.
 
When you have players like Steve Bean and Spencer Edwards who were not ranked that high when they committed or sign their LOI, what do you want Augie to do?? Sorry, but since you are ranked too high we do not want you....

Courtney Hawkins was ranked fairly high but then his stock really took off.

I would rather Texas go after these kids then have these kids end up at another campus.

As far as the roster goes for the other teams;

UCLA- all but 3 are from California

Stony Brook- NY and PA kids make their roster

Arizona is probably a bit more diverse- where they have players from California and Arizona-couple from Texas

Florida State- mostly from Florida-3-4 are from out of state

Kent State- mostly form Ohio and Western Pa.

Arkansas is also more diverse in that they have to recruit more nationally as Arkansas is not a hot bed for baseball recruits.

South Carolina also has to recruit nationally

Florida- most of their kids are from that state

Texas is just like California and Florida- These states produce such top level of kids that they should not have to recruit nationally.
 
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2013 isn’t going to be significantly better than 2012 unless we can find some overlooked gems during summer ball.
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Just a thought: Class of 2013, Dustin Williams, 1B/OF, 6-2, 210, Bats: L Throws: R, Weatherford, TX, 2nd team All-State, 2012 Louisville Slugger Honorable Mention AA. As a JR, according to College Baseball Magazine, batted .413, 16 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 47 R, 41 RBI, 29 BB, 4 SB. UNCOMMITTED
 
Did somebody actually throw race out there? Give me a ******* break.......

Yes, this year was down but we had a damn good team last year and the year before we were in the finals.

Let's see how this year works out before we start bailing out the bath water!
 
2013 isn’t going to be significantly better than 2012 unless we can find some overlooked gems during summer ball.
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Just a thought: Class of 2013, Dustin Williams, 1B/OF, 6-2, 210, Bats: L Throws: R, Weatherford, TX, 2nd team All-State, 2012 Louisville Slugger Honorable Mention AA. As a JR, according to College Baseball Magazine, batted .413, 16 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 47 R, 41 RBI, 29 BB, 4 SB. UNCOMMITTED
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Too late...according to @cowboybaseball, he has committed to Oklahoma State.
 
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