Prediction for last 8 games

[caryhorn]

Proving this team has the ability to win the games it needs to at least make the tournament without Andrew Jones so we can put that excuse to bed.

Well, I don't think its an excuse to point out a fact that effects the skill on the floor & overall competence of the team. Sure we beat ou twice without Andrew. We have played the entire conference schedule without Andrew, and we've won six games. So we can beat some teams without him.
Looking a little deeper may be helpful to understand some of the team's inconsistency. Not all, but some.
First, ou plays poor defense. And we shoot well against them. 52% from the field. That's above average for this team and just about any other team. Don't expect that in most games. Doesn't happen. Can't happen.

When our best outside shooter by far is gone it tightens defenses down low--who do opposing teams fear on this team from outside now? No One.

The point is that when your best scorer is out it changes the team. Especially when the team doesn't have quality depth at shooting guard.

Imagine the championship teams the Houston Rockets had years ago. If Akeem Olajuwon had suffered an injury and been unable to play in the championship series no one in their right mind would have expected the Rockets to win the title. And they wouldn't have. They would have won a few games, but not the series.

So for the horns to win without their best player (scorer) every one else has to play above their heads. Like against ou when we shoot 52% from the field. And it helps when the other team's best player is really off. Like trae young was (4-17 from 3 point line).
Don't expect our guys to be able to shoot 52% against ksu or Ku, or osu or wvu. Those teams play good defense. That doesn't mean we can't win them all. But it does mean the chances are low.
The odds are our guys won't be able to play above their heads with great intensity four games in seven days. Not impossible, but not likely.

 

[Htown77]

The point is that when your best scorer is out it changes the team. Especially when the team doesn't have quality depth at shooting guard.

And no one cared when we lost Isaiah Taylor and still made the tournament. I am not going to lower the previous standards set for Shaka.

If we fail to make the tournament this year, that will be three years in a row without an NCAA tournament win.

 

[4th_floor]

My prediction: Shaka will be on the hot seat next year, barring a miracle.

That game would qualify as a miracle, except ousux. Shaka needs a miracle run to win the conf tourney. That would save him from the hot seat.

 

[4th_floor]

......And continue the run into the NCAA tourney, at least for 2 games.

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

Proving this team has the ability to win the games it needs to at least make the tournament without Andrew Jones so we can put that excuse to bed.

Granted, this team has the ability. The questions surrounding this team are all about consistency.

 

[caryhorn]

"Htown77:
Proving this team has the ability to win the games it needs to at least make the tournament without Andrew Jones so we can put that excuse to bed.


Sangre naranjada:
Granted, this team has the ability. The questions surrounding this team are all about consistency.

No question we have the ability to win all four remaining games, but never in my memory are we playing in such an evenly matched conference where the last place team (osu) is so capable of beating the first place team, or us for that matter.
For us to run the table we would have to shoot better than we have all year, and KU and KSU would need to play below their potential. I think we have a better chance to beat osu and wvu because osu is not as good as us, and wvu (over the last 6 games) is even more inconsistent than the Horns. wvu has better players than us (their first 8), but they are the poster child of inconsistency and blown leads.
ksu should beat us at their place, and ku should certainly beat us, If each team plays to their potential.
I predict 2-2 for the last four:
ksu--L
ku--L
osu-W
wvu-W
Final record after the season, before the b12 tourney-- 18-13

 

[Htown77]

^ I hope we get to at least 18-13. I honestly do not know what we do either way. I am a bit worried the OU wins may not be as good as they seem. I may be wrong about the wins proving we can do better.

We have beaten OU twice during their 6 game losing streak in which they have lost to Iowa State and got handled pretty easily by Kansas. Im worried OU “lost it” or it is possible everyone just figured out how to stop Trae Young.

Too early to tell on us or OU. We’ll have to see how it plays out. Hopefully Shaka and the Horns can suprise with a nice win streak here at the end.

 

[txlandagent]

We're in the tourney as a #12-13 if we finish 18-13 team based on SOS and RPI.

I think we'll finish 20-13. 4-4 in conference play 1-1 conf. tournament. 10 seed lock.

We finished 3-5 down the stretch, 18-13. Still good enough to get in more than likely we’ll be the 12 seed playing 5 in a play in game. If we can beat ISU I bet we ease up to 11. Win two and I see a #10 seed. Either way, just glad to be off the bubble!!

 

[dukesteer]

It’s funny. This team seems to have plenty of talent but they cannot consistently put it together. And they seem to lack the killer instinct.

They’ll probably win a game in the NCAA tournament but they are hard to handicap. What fascinates me is that without Bamba and in Kansas, they were competitive, and yesterday against a good and scrappy WVA team, they did what they needed to do.

I am really impressed with Sims. The kid is extremely nimble for a big guy. He moves like a guard. If he hones his skill set a bit next year and fills out, he could be a force on both ends of the floor.

Back to the tournament, while I have very low expectations, one never knows. If Bamba is healthy and goes off, and players like Coleman and Roach play up to their potential, we could make it interesting with some of the better teams.

I’ve been waiting for this team to break out. It probably won’t happen but one never knows.

 

[4th_floor]

My prediction: Shaka will be on the hot seat next year, barring a miracle.

A couple of wins in the conf tourney and 1 win in the NCAAs and I'll gladly eat me words.

 

[FWHORN]

So they went 3-5 in last 8 winning two I did not expect and losing 3 I thought they should win. Iowa State is a must win to get into the tourny and even that will be likely a play in game. I agree that Shaka will be on hot seat next year and he should be.

 

[caryhorn]

They’ll probably win a game in the NCAA tournament but they are hard to handicap. What fascinates me is that without Bamba and in Kansas, they were competitive, and yesterday against a good and scrappy WVA team, they did what they needed to do.

If they get into the NCAA, and win a game, That may give Shaka some slack.
Winning a game in the NCAA hasn't happened in a few years. That would be big, especially with the player losses he's had to contend with.

Sims has gotten better each game. He is aggressive, very athletic, and has a high vertical. I think he gives us something on the offensive end that Bamba has not: agility, quickness, aggressive to the hoop with a bit of an attitude.

Maybe, if Bamba gets well, he will come back with more aggressiveness and attitude. That would be nice to see.

 

[uisge beatha]

Whether Bamba comes back or not, I feel more confident with watching Sims grow. The WVU game is the first i'm remembering this season where the big dropping down actually seemed effective throughout the game.

 

[caryhorn]

The WVU game is the first i'm remembering this season where the big dropping down actually seemed effective throughout the game.

Sims seems more active in the paint, more aggressively attacking on the offensive end, than Bamba. I don't know why that is, but Bamba really doesn't seem to work, be physical, to get the ball and take it to the hoop.

Anyway, I think you are right, watching Sims improve so much from game to game is really fun. If he and Bamba are on the court at the same time, and if Bamba can play with a chip on his shoulder, Shaka might have something.

And Bamba shooting the 3 point shot 5 or 6 times a game to make one is simply not good enough. He needs to work it in the paint.

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

I have not seen Bamba take more than two 3pointers in any single game this year.

 

[caryhorn]

I have not seen Bamba take more than two 3pointers in any single game this year.

^^My bad. After reading your post, I checked the box scores from Michigan through the end of the season. The most three pointers he's taken in a game is four (twice) both times close losses (ksu & osu) where he was 1-4. Next was three games where he was 1-3 (Mich, BU, TCU) all losses.
Overall, from the Mich game to the end of the season he was 11 for 35, 31% shooting percentage.

I guess that's pretty consistent with the team's average on the whole for three pointers. The point I was trying to make is that, in my opinion, he is more effective as a scorer, defender, and decoy to help set up his team mates if he plays a power post game, and plays it aggressively. When he clanks one off the rim from beyond the arc our best rebounder (him) is out of rebounding position. Its essentially turning the ball over to the opponent.

 

[X Misn Tx]

When he clanks one off the rim from beyond the arc our best rebounder (him) is out of rebounding position. Its essentially turning the ball over to the opponent.

this is the new world. and i don't understand it either, other an having athletic swingmen with 6'10 arm spans that make up the rebounding difference. but it's counterintuitive to have your biggest men beyond the arc. I get spacing advantages, but what about the 65% of the time that the big men miss?

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

^^My bad. After reading your post, I checked the box scores from Michigan through the end of the season. The most three pointers he's taken in a game is four (twice) both times close losses (ksu & osu) where he was 1-4. Next was three games where he was 1-3 (Mich, BU, TCU) all losses.
Overall, from the Mich game to the end of the season he was 11 for 35, 31% shooting percentage.

I guess that's pretty consistent with the team's average on the whole for three pointers. The point I was trying to make is that, in my opinion, he is more effective as a scorer, defender, and decoy to help set up his team mates if he plays a power post game, and plays it aggressively. When he clanks one off the rim from beyond the arc our best rebounder (him) is out of rebounding position. Its essentially turning the ball over to the opponent.

Thanks for taking the time to look up the stats since I haven't watched every game this season. I definitely think Mo does more for the team down low than trying to be a stretch 4 in the mold of Nowitzki.

 

[Murphy Horn]

If Shaka can win one game in conference tournament and one game in NCAA, his seat will not be hot next year. If he wins only one in conference and goes out in 1st game of NCAA, unless against a very high seed, he will be in a warm seat. But, I don't agree that he should be. Any coach who is a solid citizen and respected by his team should get five years. Charlie Strong's teams quit on him many times so I don't count that as respect.

 

[mars]

If Shaka can win one game in conference tournament and one game in NCAA, his seat will not be hot next year. If he wins only one in conference and goes out in 1st game of NCAA, unless against a very high seed, he will be in a warm seat. But, I don't agree that he should be. Any coach who is a solid citizen and respected by his team should get five years. Charlie Strong's teams quit on him many times so I don't count that as respect.

I couldn't disagree with this more. I like Shaka and really want him to succeed. But, this is not a rebuilding project. He came to a team that had been in the NCAAs, with the exception of a few random years, yearly since the late 1980s. He is paid a king's ransom to win, not be a solid, respected citizen. The bottom line is that the program is in worse shape than when he inherited it. There are some circumstances that have had an effect on it, but there is no reason whatsoever any coach coming into that situation should be automatically given 5 (or 4 for that matter) years. We got rid of Rick to do better, not worse. If we beat ISU tonight, and get to the tourney, I will feel okay about things given everything that has happened this year. But, I don't understand this loser's mentality.

I hope the powers that be don't have this mentality.

With that said, I hope like hell Shaka gets it done moving forward.