Predict Texas v.s. Baylor

Duck Dodgers said:
But the flex, you can't discount the effect of the flex, where a DB isn't in the right position, gives up a critical 3rd down, then come running up (from behind as he wasn't actually by the receiver), gets a big hit, then flexes for the camera.

Yes the other team keeps moving the ball till the inevitable TD, but there's a flex to appreciate till then.

Texas won't lose out. They're tracking the historical W / L risk weighted percentage under He-Man. Based on that:

67% win against Baylor
33% win against OSU
67% win against W VA
100% for KU
67% for ISU
100% for KSU

That's a risk weighted 4.3 wins, rounded down to 4 as no way KSU should be considered 100% win this year (100% based on 3-0 record last three years).

6-4, doubtful to make the B12 game with that record, but you never know, other teams may trade off lots of losses too.
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What does previous seasons have to do with the play of this year? I say that KSU has about a 60, 65 percent chance of winning this game.
 
And yet, a risk weighted model gave Texas 2.25 wins after 4 games. Seems pretty accurate. Name me a poster here who said, prior to the season, Texas would be 2-2 at this point?

Fans are manic depressive about their teams. A win shows their team will win it all. A loss shows they won’t win again. Repeat and switch during the season as needed.

Texas has not played well this year. But it has not played much worse than in previous years. Beat TT as usual, 3-1 under Herman against them. Losses to TCU and OU, as usual, 1-3 and 1-4 respectively.

OSU is the only team left Herman does not have a winning record against, he’s 1-2. Rest are 2-1 save for 3-0 records against each of the Kansas teams. So on a risk weighted basis, baring injury to Sam or he mails it in, unlikely, best estimate is 4 more wins.

That may seem like a lot now, but ask yourself if 6-4 was an expected result prior to the season, or if you would have considered that anything but a failure this year.
 
Duck Dodgers said:
And yet, a risk weighted model gave Texas 2.25 wins after 4 games. Seems pretty accurate. Name me a poster here who said, prior to the season, Texas would be 2-2 at this point?

Fans are manic depressive about their teams. A win shows their team will win it all. A loss shows they won’t win again. Repeat and switch during the season as needed.

Texas has not played well this year. But it has not played much worse than in previous years. Beat TT as usual, 3-1 under Herman against them. Losses to TCU and OU, as usual, 1-3 and 1-4 respectively.

OSU is the only team left Herman does not have a winning record against, he’s 1-2. Rest are 2-1 save for 3-0 records against each of the Kansas teams. So on a risk weighted basis, baring injury to Sam or he mails it in, unlikely, best estimate is 4 more wins.

That may seem like a lot now, but ask yourself if 6-4 was an expected result prior to the season, or if you would have considered that anything but a failure this year.
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Stop making sense.
 
Very well. We will never win another game this year. The team has quit. We’re doomed. Doomed I tells ya!

Now if Texas wins: we’re back. Early season struggles are over. Team is clicking and found its groove. B12 game here we come!
 
LonghornDave said:
Maybe in order to keep WM (and others) engaged, we should predict things other than the score, like will Texas have over 100 yards in penalties? Or how many players will run off the field in protest? or will Aranda cover his mouth and nose with his mask? Will the Baylor line "socially distance"? Did Baylor take three weeks off to prepare for this game? I am sure I missed something?
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How many times will Texas celebrate holding Baylor to 20 yard gains?
 
State of Texas: 4 cases pending
Baylor: 5 new cases of 'rona

oh wait...you mean predict the game...

the In-Fighting Tom Hermans: not enough
Baptists on the Brazos: just enough
 
Bears 28
Horns 24

Chris Brown continues to dominate. After opponents 15 yd gains.
url
 
Duck Dodgers said:
And yet, a risk weighted model gave Texas 2.25 wins after 4 games. Seems pretty accurate. Name me a poster here who said, prior to the season, Texas would be 2-2 at this point?

Fans are manic depressive about their teams. A win shows their team will win it all. A loss shows they won’t win again. Repeat and switch during the season as needed.

Texas has not played well this year. But it has not played much worse than in previous years. Beat TT as usual, 3-1 under Herman against them. Losses to TCU and OU, as usual, 1-3 and 1-4 respectively.

OSU is the only team left Herman does not have a winning record against, he’s 1-2. Rest are 2-1 save for 3-0 records against each of the Kansas teams. So on a risk weighted basis, baring injury to Sam or he mails it in, unlikely, best estimate is 4 more wins.

That may seem like a lot now, but ask yourself if 6-4 was an expected result prior to the season, or if you would have considered that anything but a failure this year.
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It did require a minor miracle to beat TT in overtime. Just sayin'.
 
No, same prediction as mine more or less. High scoring game with a close Texas win. Baylor’s FG kicker seems bad by percentage made while Teaxs has the usual good one going back to the days of Phil Dawson.
 
LonghornDave said:
Maybe in order to keep WM (and others) engaged, we should predict things other than the score, like will Texas have over 100 yards in penalties? Or how many players will run off the field in protest? or will Aranda cover his mouth and nose with his mask? Will the Baylor line "socially distance"? Did Baylor take three weeks off to prepare for this game? I am sure I missed something?
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The real question is will BU football players socially distance from young, vulnerable,...uhhh...co-e.... yeah.. nevermind....
 
txhorn_et said:
With all the political correctness going on, it’s quickly getting to the ‘who cares’ category.
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Same here. I'm having a hard time getting interested in tomorrow's game. Two weeks ago I had very little excitement or anticipation leading up to the game. That is unheard of for me when comes to ou. I'm usually wound up tighter that a two dollar watch.
The strongest emotion I feel is apathy. I hope something happens tomorrow to change that but I'm not holding my breath.
 
The Texas games have been good to watch - sloppy, poor play for both teams, but exciting to watch - I keep going back to the analogy of the Popeye's chicken sandwich fights.

Should be a good one with Baylor - with Baylor's good QB, I think he whips up on Texas' defense with good throws and gashes them with runs up the middle, as TCU's QB did, while Texas moves the ball themselves via Sam.

But yeah, can't say I really care who wins. I couldn't sleep the night Texas lost to Texas Tech in 98 or 2008 to ruin the B12 championship hopes. Now it's like who won some random NFL game.
 
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