Odds of Winning

[Stuck_At_Work]

I'm stuck in a meeting... and bored as can be... so I decided to pull together some semi-mathematical odds of winning each game. The numbers looked pretty realistic, so I decided to post them. They don't really tell us anything we didn't already know.

Fl Atlantic - 92%
UTEP - 78%
Ark - 81%
Rice - 97%
Colo - 66%
OU - 40%
Mizz - 52%
OSU - 78%
TT - 46%
Bay - 95%
Kan - 48%
A&M - 76%

 

[GatorDave]

We'll have an easier time with Arky over UTEP?

 

[Stuck_At_Work]

The 3% difference is pretty negligible. We play UTEP away. We play Arkansas at home. Arkansas also happens to be pretty darn bad this year. Last year, their pass offense ranked in the top 5 worst in Div 1. And their rushing attack... well that left for the NFL.

 

[TornACL]

I'll say it. Florida Atlantic worries me a lot more than Arkansas.

 

[b UT ful]

What's up with Colorado? It should be more like 90% because they play FSU in Jacksonville the previous week. No way they have enough energy - I don't care if it's their homecoming.

 

[Horns11]

FAU: 70
UTEP: 98
Ark: 70
Rice: 100
CU: 80
OU: 33
Mizzou: 50
OK State: 90
Tech: 50
Baylor: 100
KU: 50
A&M: 70

 

[Horns83]

FAU: 90
UTEP: 85
Ark: 75
Rice: 99
CU: 65
OU: 45
Mizzou: 50
OK State: 75
Tech: 50
Baylor: 90
KU: 60
A&M: 70


Ouch. That's a 1.1% chance of running the table. I remember I did this before the '05 season, and I came up with a 7% or 8% chance of us running the table.

 

[AustinBadger]

I would not sleep on a Bobby Petrino team.

They are obviously a few years away from bringing Air Petrino to Dixie but don't be surprised if it is a dogfight in on a hot Austin September afternoon.

 

[danny1010]

That also puts you at predicting between an 8 and 9 win season (not including bowl game or potential Big XII championship game). I'd say I'm feeling closer to 9 wins for the regular season.