North Korea: Do we or don't we (invade)?
- Thread starter Musburger1
- Start date
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
Stopping trading with anyone that trades with NK would send our own economy into a tailspin. It's the most effective method in pushing China to deal with NK but it could also be a "nuclear" option in that should China give us the middle finger we'll have cut off our nose to spit our own face.
the effect being something like the fuel scare ...
cold turkey change our habits, I reckon. Being at DKR on a Saturday would sure take a hit. It'd correct that problem we have with the NFL, too. Of course, I'd probably get bumped back to NB FO with all those layoffs.
That's OK ... as long as I can have a beneficial rain we'll be OK for a long while. "... a country boy can survive"
It's time for an enema anyway. Bring it.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
Feel free to run out and buy some fallout gear. That's preferable to impacting my ability to keep my son in college. Let me know how the gear holds up in storage.
If that all happens, paying for college will be the least of anyone's problems.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
I'll take my chances. Upsetting our lifestyle to anticipate the whims of 2 madmen doesn't seem rational. I'm confident the more rational elements within the US and China will control these madmen rendering your fallout gear merely items to showoff at the next neighborhood BBQ.
Aren't we all?
I can see you'd definitely be one of "the insurgents" circa 1776. ///sarc
Your guy put us in the position to appear weak in the first place. That lil Kim's rhetoric ... oh and demonstrations ... would even be sufficiently credible to warrant acknowledgement, let alone response; that's on your guy, and folks like you who've apologized for him.
Fallout gear ... that's cute. much like your presumed understanding of threat. Has the fuel thread not demonstrated to you how fragile our "lifestyle" really is? I appreciate that being 2500 miles away seems like a good layer of insulation, but it's not. In fact, thanks to "your" own efforts to have government pay for everything, your region's economy is even more delicate ... but I'm sorry to confuse you with truth, bub.
Fact is ... our existence is actually very fragile and there's really not an awful lot we can do to change that. 2011 showed me that. No rain. Which is why I said, I really only need beneficial rains ... to grow the pasture grass, to feed the cattle ... to feed me and mine.
Water is a necessity. Play stations are not ... college degrees are not either.
All the best, SH.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
My presumed understanding of the threat is that you have a couple of attention whores stomping their feet and screaming. It's all bluster and we should not give in to the hysteria they are attempting to create. Yes, it is like the "fuel thread" in that you have people irrationally buying into the hyperbole. That's what I'm saying we absolutely should NOT do. Cutting off all trade with China, which attention ***** #1 tweeted about, would be the guy in that fuel thread filling up his truck and 50-gallon drums, fearing the worst.
There is nothing we can do to stop Kim from having nukes. He has them already. As Putin stated NK would rather eat grass than give up their nukes. So, while you play cutesy politics (i.e. "your guy") I'll accept reality and recognize that like Sadam Hussein, Kim is trying to maintain his own power and is not suicidal. NK is paranoid so why feed it with empty threats? Ignore them because outside of sanctions we have no tools left in the toolbox.
AFAIK ... lil Kim hasn't harbored, aided/abetted AQ training camps as did Hussein ... Saddam that is. So they are not alike in their threat. SH (hmm) was clear and present regardless of what you WANT to believe.
I saw those camps in the mid-late 90s.
... and lil Kim is launching nuke platforms. I might consider him a non event if Reagans anti ballistic missle program and subsequent weren't shut down and by ... whom?
I saw those camps in the mid-late 90s.
... and lil Kim is launching nuke platforms. I might consider him a non event if Reagans anti ballistic missle program and subsequent weren't shut down and by ... whom?
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
You might want to tell that to our intelligence communities because they called ******** on that in multiple reports and formats. Maybe they had disappeared by the time we did our investigation?
And this....
Whoa...you want to go back to "star wars"? Can you post pictures of your bomb shelter, please? I'd like to see what investments I'm missing out on while I worry about paying for college (and a playstation?). Priorities, I guess.
Don't stop believing!
It was the Intel community who ID'd them from our reports.
But ... carry on. Please.
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I think you're having continuity difficulty.
What I want is irrelevant ... what IS relevant ... well, that was a liberal congress who was more interested in a welfare state than a integrated system to defeat intercontinental ballistic missiles. As you know, we eventually developed regional capability on shorter-range missiles (Patriot system) ... but we still have only mutual assured destruction keeping Russia from launching theirs upon us. Russia's communism is evil in that it exacts it's dearth upon its own people.
They're not insane.
lil Kim? You said it yerself, SH.
I will agree Trump makes over the top statements ... it's part of the marketing genius which helped get him elected (that and the absolute disaster this population re-elected in 2012).
NK's nukes aren't just a group of teenage boys lighting "Black Cats." Guam is within their range ... perhaps Hawaii, too. NM the country we agreed to defend after WWII which is <800 miles from Pyongyang. and the one which borders NK? Can you guess?
Are you suggesting that ... within a generation ... we just dump our commitments which have benefitted our national security?
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Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
I haven't suggested that at all. MAD is still in effect. To be sure, there would be less reservation about launching on NK should we detect a launch from them than Russia. The whole world knows this. We should still arm SK/Japan and work, sanction NK and continue to work with China hoping they keep Kim under their thumb. Separating China and NK is also dangerous.
What works in an election isn't necessarily effective and can be very dangerous in foreign policy.
OK ... well it seemed like you had a flair of Rand Paul-esque isolationism in your commentary/remarks. It matters to our allies, so it matters to US.
This is the part of The Don which wasn't appreciated. Politicians are always campaigning. So are marketeers. The Don IS a world class marketeer.
Not only are there translation issues to overcome, there are intent issues from that translation. That's nothing new. That exists regardless of who is in the White House ... well, unless that one is of the other side of the foreign policy table, then they are all too familiar. We were the ones hoodwinked before Trump.
We all knew what we were getting with Trump AFA style. I've been pleasantly surprised WRT substance though it's time to address taxes and bureaucracy if we can't repeal ACA.
NK is clearly more than the little-considered gnat to those who understand who the US is on the world scene, particularly with regard to our allies and treaty holders. It's proven to be a really large price to insure no more kamikaze from the land of the rising sun, in spite of their contribution to the effort.
Will we fold in the face of that region's despot? No. We have deployments underway even now. It's leaving us a bit thin in the ME thanks to the almost 50% reduction in available/appropriate combat forces .. but hey. We have ACA! ughh.
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
Looks like China just went to economic war!
"Crackdown Begins: Chinese Banks Are Suspending North Korean Transactions"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...anks-are-suspending-north-korean-transactions
"Crackdown Begins: Chinese Banks Are Suspending North Korean Transactions"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...anks-are-suspending-north-korean-transactions
In what may be a major breakthrough in the diplomatic and political stalemate over North Korea if confirmed officially, Japan's Kyodo newspaper reported overnight that Chinese state banks have started suspending transactions through accounts held by North Koreans, making it nearly impossible to do business between the two countries. Furthermore, Kyodo News has confirmed that branch offices of at least three major state banks - the Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China - in the northeastern border city of Yanji have also banned North Koreans from opening accounts.
The Chinese banks have yet to freeze the accounts, meaning that North Koreans can still withdraw money from them - similar to bitcoins held in Chinese exchanges - but they are now prevented from making deposits or remittances, according to the sources quoted by Kyodo.
"This is being influenced by international sanctions against North Korea," an employee of one bank said.
The Chinese banks have yet to freeze the accounts, meaning that North Koreans can still withdraw money from them - similar to bitcoins held in Chinese exchanges - but they are now prevented from making deposits or remittances, according to the sources quoted by Kyodo.
"This is being influenced by international sanctions against North Korea," an employee of one bank said.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
If so, this is good news. Maybe saner heads prevailed in China. Hopefully this doesn't mean they never had as much control over NK as we thought they did.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
China is protecting NK. They want to pressure them without the regime collapsing. The Washington Post had an article yesterday claiming there was a sharp increase in Russia black-market trading with NK in the past 6 months.
It's a very odd and conflicted situation for China and North Korea. Obviously they want North Korea to remain a Marxist-Leninist state (as they claim to be but sorta aren't). It gives them a buffer from South Korea and Japan, and it creates a pain in the *** for the West.
In addition, China can't promote any sort of compromise between North Korea and the West that involves North Korea granting any kind of meaningful political freedom to its people, which the West undoubtedly wants. Why? Because if that happened North Korea would eventually go the way of East Germany, which means China would lose its buffer. It wouldn't happen overnight like it did in East Germany (because the North Koreans are even more in the dark), but in time, it would happen. So essentially, it has to remain a one-party, authoritarian regime.
However, China can't let NK be such a pain in the *** that it provokes a military action by the United States and its allies (which could draw China into a war) or disrupts the trade relationship China has with the West (and therefore cuts off China's money). Either situation is disastrous for China.
Essentially, China needs them to be a communist dictatorship that causes trouble from time to time but that behaves when China needs them to. In other words, they need NK to be their monkey boy, but they've mostly been that for the last 50 years, and what has it gotten them? They're broke-*** poor, weak, and disrespected globally, while China has become at least an almost-superpower. By maintaining a nuclear program and sabre-rattling, they're upping the ante for economic aid (from either China, the United States, or both), and they're gaining respect - not likeability but respect. It's really a tight balance for both countries, but if you're NK, why not sabre-rattle at least some?
I35
5,000+ Posts
Although that is true, we are by far the worlds largest consumer. So what hurts us, hurts the other so much more. It sounds like there isn't a good answer to this problem as long as China isn't on the same page as us.
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
Ok, it's Thursday evening and North Korea has launched another test missile in the vacinity of Japan. Both Japan and South Korea or rapidly escalating their military potential and North Korea has vowed to continue its nuclear program. North Korea has stated they are open to talks but the US (Trump) stated earlier this week that talk is out of the question. The Chinese/Russian proposal has always been for a compromise where the US and South Korea backs off their war games and removeTHAAD in exchange for a freeze of Norh Koreas nuke development. Rather than work with the Chinese/Russian proposal the US is doubling down as evidenced by Tillerrson basically demanding action from Russia and China.
North Korea's provocative missile launch represents the second time the people of Japan, a treaty ally of the United States, have been directly threatened in recent weeks.
These continued provocations only deepen North Korea's diplomatic and economic isolation.
United Nations Security Council resolutions, including the most recent unanimous sanctions resolution, represent the floor, not the ceiling, of the actions we should take.
We call on all nations to take new measures against the Kim regime.
China supplies North Korea with most of its oil. Russia is the largest employer of North Korean forced labor.
China and Russia must indicate their intolerance for these reckless missile launches by taking direct actions of their own.
Both Putin and Xi have told the US that Kim isn't going to stop, nor is China going to starve the population and create a humanitarian catastrophe that will only provoke Kim. In my opinion, the US approach is reckless, futile, and only encourages proliferation of the entire East Asian region. Could it be this that neocon objective is to accomplish just precisely that?These continued provocations only deepen North Korea's diplomatic and economic isolation.
United Nations Security Council resolutions, including the most recent unanimous sanctions resolution, represent the floor, not the ceiling, of the actions we should take.
We call on all nations to take new measures against the Kim regime.
China supplies North Korea with most of its oil. Russia is the largest employer of North Korean forced labor.
China and Russia must indicate their intolerance for these reckless missile launches by taking direct actions of their own.
Yeah, if I told a Chevy salesmen that I'd offer him $1,500 for the top of the line Corvette, he'd probably walk away from the table too.
The reason the US isn't going along is that this is absolutely insane. We undermine our readiness and eliminate missile defense in the area, and in return North Korea freezes (doesn't even eliminate) its nuclear program. If I was Iran, I'd be pissed about that. We weren't anywhere near that lax on their program, and they aren't as crazy as Kim is.
You think we're the bad apples and that Russia, China, and their monkey boy is right. What a shock. You set this narrative up a few months ago with your initial post but were a lot less vitriolic about it, and I still saw it coming. It's comical. I'm getting good at this.
Musburger1
2,500+ Posts
You love to critique other analysis but rarely have the guts to make projections yourself. I'm asking you take out your crystal ball and say where the present course ends up. I see two possibilities.
1. Nobody attacks but all sides throw more and more resources into armaments and sanctions.
2. Nuclear war.
One possibly is bad. The other catastrophic.
Your turn.
Clean
5,000+ Posts
Pretty sure the U.S. had a freeze agreement with N. Korea worked out by the Clinton Administration in 1994. You can see where that has gotten us.
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