New York State's New Abortion Law

[Horn6721]

I agree.
But our focus for now should be now .
It is difficult to believe intelligent people care more about personality and stories, some true many not than what is happening in our country for nearly every single Anerican,
For instance Dems continue to call him racist when he has done more for the black community in terrms of employmsnt, justice and opportunity than any other .
They say he hates Hispanics who are doing better than ever. They lie about what he says, they lie about his policies .
How do you get people in the suburbs to see the facts and not the hateful rhetoric coming from pols media and Hollywood?

 

[Mr. Deez]

I used to drink but I was never been big on it even then. I don't drink or smoke. I'm kind of a boring perv.

I've sorta gone Euro on booze. I drink more often than I used to, but I drink far less in each sitting. I used to go to BB Rover's in Austin. It's a quiet, filthy bar with a great beer selection, and I'd drink 4 or 5 beers with my political people every other weekend. When they closed at midnight, we'd go across 183 over to Bone Daddys and drink a 32 ounce Dos Equis. By the end of the night, I was "feelin' beautiful." Now I drink 2 or 3 times per week but virtually never more than one. I've never smoked a cigarette or weed in my life, but I smoke a good cigar maybe once every 5 to 7 years.

 

[Garmel]

Over the longer haul, I'm concerned that he is correct.

I have more faith in the American people. I think this hard left wackiness we've seen over the last 5-10 years is a fad that will burn itself out. As Deez said we're going to need to get conservatives involved in education in order to shape America's following generations. If I'm wrong at least I'll have croaked by then and I don't have to watch America burn.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Our disagreement is that he thinks we're doomed because of the suburbs and I don't agree with that.

That's fine if you can find the voters to make up for them. What voters are we talking about? If the margins get bigger in Dallas and Houston, while big suburbs like Plano, Richardson, and Arlington start leaning blue, we better have a very large group of voters ready to switch to the GOP. Could it be blacks and Latinos? It'll take a hell of a lot of them. When we start seeing people like Sheila Jackson-Lee and Beto's successor getting defeated, we'll know your theory held water.

 

[Garmel]

That's fine if you can find the voters to make up for them. What voters are we talking about? If the margins get bigger in Dallas and Houston, while big suburbs like Plano, Richardson, and Arlington start leaning blue, we better have a very large group of voters ready to switch to the GOP. Could it be blacks and Latinos? It'll take a hell of a lot of them. When we start seeing people like Sheila Jackson-Lee and Beto's successor getting defeated, we'll know your theory held water.

Isn't Jackson Lee's district so gerrymandered that it'd be impossible for any republican to win?

 

[Garmel]

An article that mentions that the suburb problem is only happening in the top 20 cities and not much elsewhere. It doesn't help my "minorities" theory though. The Suburban Vote Isn't as Blue as It Looks

 

[Garmel]

Look who's leading the pack in large donations from suburban women. No. 1 in large donations, 5th overall but the study says it could be much more than that. Women donations for Trump surge, No. 1 in suburbs

 

[mchammer]

I've sorta gone Euro on booze. I drink more often than I used to, but I drink far less in each sitting. I used to go to BB Rover's in Austin. It's a quiet, filthy bar with a great beer selection, and I'd drink 4 or 5 beers with my political people every other weekend. When they closed at midnight, we'd go across 183 over to Bone Daddys and drink a 32 ounce Dos Equis. By the end of the night, I was "feelin' beautiful." Now I drink 2 or 3 times per week but virtually never more than one. I've never smoked a cigarette or weed in my life, but I smoke a good cigar maybe once every 5 to 7 years.

BB Rovers was big in the late 90’s and early aughts with the rec.sports.football.college folks (news groups).

 

[Mr. Deez]

BB Rovers was big in the late 90’s and early aughts with the rec.sports.football.college folks (news groups).

I'm not surprised. Three things about it appealed to me. First, the beer selection was superb. Second, the wait staff was very knowledgeable, so if you wanted to discover new beers, they could make recommendations and actually know what they were talking about. It was all chicks, but they weren't ditzy hot chicks in their early 20s. They were granola-looking chicks who were maybe 30. Third, though they often had a game on the TV, it wasn't blaringly loud, and they didn't usually didn't tolerate noisy drunks. That meant you didn't have to shout to be heard. You could have real conversations whether it was about sports or politics or anything else.

I did get kicked out once because a guy at our table started pulling a Rick James and going behind the bar. However, they let us come back.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Virginia Democrats Won Because Courts Killed a Racial Gerrymander

Lol. I love when liberals rewrite history to pretend that racial gerrymandering is primarily a Republican dirty trick when Democrats invented it in the late '80s and early '90s and used the Voting Rights Act to do it. What changed is that they realized that for every safe Democratic seat they gained from it, they created 2 or 3 safe Republican seats, so they're not as big of fans of it now. Even the virtue signaling opportunity wasn't worth it.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Isn't Jackson Lee's district so gerrymandered that it'd be impossible for any republican to win?

Yes but only because race is essentially a proxy for politics. They didn't cram a bunch of Democrats into her district. They crammed a bunch of blacks into it, and 90 percent of them vote Democratic. Furthermore, they're racist enough to always choose a black Democrat over a white Democrat. That's how Al Green defeated Chris Bell.

 

[Mr. Deez]

An article that mentions that the suburb problem is only happening in the top 20 cities and not much elsewhere. It doesn't help my "minorities" theory though. The Suburban Vote Isn't as Blue as It Looks

I read this article when it was new, and she is correct. It is primarily a problem in big cities. The suburbs of Cheyenne, Wyoming and Cincinnati, Ohio aren't flipping. The problem is that the big cities tend to also go along with big electoral votes. It takes a lot of Des Moines, Indianapolises, Akrons, and Cincinnatis to make up for losing Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston and their suburbs.

Look who's leading the pack in large donations from suburban women. No. 1 in large donations, 5th overall but the study says it could be much more than that. Women donations for Trump surge, No. 1 in suburbs

Large donations are not indicative of much. One of the Hunt women can write a bigger check than a department manager at Sears can, but her vote counts the same.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Trump is going to win because of the black and Latino vote. The rural voters mostly sit out the midterms. Deez dataset is small where you have an energized Dems, even in the burbs. When Trump leaves politics, so does the energy for the Dems. Don’t see how you can extrapolate this small dataset beyond Trump.

Hammer, a few things on this. First, do you have a source for your turnout assumption on rural areas? Rural areas tend to be older, and older voters tend to turn out the most. That's why entitlement reform is so hard to do.

Second, the data set isn't small. Yes, we're talking about one election, but it's the continuation of a trend that has been going on since about 1990. You know how California, New York, and Illinois are now solid blue, and we don't even try to win them anymore? It's because of this trend.

 

[Mr. Deez]

I agree.
But our focus for now should be now .
It is difficult to believe intelligent people care more about personality and stories, some true many not than what is happening in our country for nearly every single Anerican,
For instance Dems continue to call him racist when he has done more for the black community in terrms of employmsnt, justice and opportunity than any other .
They say he hates Hispanics who are doing better than ever. They lie about what he says, they lie about his policies .
How do you get people in the suburbs to see the facts and not the hateful rhetoric coming from pols media and Hollywood?

Like I've said before, branding matters. I'm not sure why you'd think it matters with cars, toothpaste, and cereal but shouldn't matter with politics.

The media hates Republicans. It has since the New Deal. That's why people tend to buy the media's narrative about Trump. That disadvantage is baked into the cake until conservative families encourage their kids in very large numbers to become teachers, lawyers, and journalists (and therefore forego literally millions of dollars).

To deal with that problem, we can do two things. First, advance a good policy agenda. Second, don't stupid **** that reinforces the media's narrative. Trump is mediocre in the first step and horrifically bad at the second step. And some of it is just a matter of personality and demeanor. Don't be an *******. How hard can it be?

 

[OUBubba]

Don't be an *******. How hard can it be?

Difficult for that family. Leopards don’t change their spots.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Difficult for that family. Leopards don’t change their spots.

And unfortunately, for some, the assholicness is a feature rather than a bug.

 

[Garmel]

Not perfect but there is improvement.

"Women accounted for nearly half of Trump’s 2020 campaign contributions in the first three months of 2019, according to data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics. That’s a striking increase from the 2016 election cycle, when women accounted for just over a quarter of his campaign contributions, and well above the norm for modern GOP presidential nominees."

Trump is finally catching fire with female donors

 

[Mr. Deez]

Not perfect but there is improvement.

"Women accounted for nearly half of Trump’s 2020 campaign contributions in the first three months of 2019, according to data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics. That’s a striking increase from the 2016 election cycle, when women accounted for just over a quarter of his campaign contributions, and well above the norm for modern GOP presidential nominees."

Trump is finally catching fire with female donors

It's an improvement, but elections are decided by votes, not donations, though they certainly help.

 

[Horn6721]

I wonder what the percentage is of people who donate go on to vote

 

[Mr. Deez]

I wonder what the percentage is of people who donate go on to vote

Probably all or virtually all.

 

[Garmel]

I wonder what the percentage is of people who donate go on to vote

Common sense tells you it's pretty high. If you're willing to give someone money that means you're serious about candidate.

 

[Horn6721]

I agree so then the increase in women donors should be good news for Trump when most msm is saying he is losing women.

 

[Garmel]

Anyway, how did this thread go from abortion to voting? LOL!

 

[Mr. Deez]

I agree so then the increase in women donors should be good news for Trump when most msm is saying he is losing women.

Certainly it's good news for him, but does the identity of donors translate into votes beyond just those donors? That's the question.

 

[Horn6721]

Hmm Maybe it is assumed most women are pro abortion and therefore would not vote for Trump since he was supposed to be overturning Roe v Wade?
Kavanuagh.
So a report that the number of women donating to Trump is applicable to topic

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

That data is for total dollars a candidate received from females ($200 and up contributions only). While the data is definitely a GOOD sign, I'd want to know how many females donated to a particular campaign more than the total dollars raised before I took it as a GREAT sign.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Hmm Maybe it is assumed most women are pro abortion and therefore would not vote for Trump since he was supposed to be overturning Roe v Wade?
Kavanuagh.
So a report that the number of women donating to Trump is applicable to topic

I think people are just looking at polls and how elections are turning out.

 

[Joe Fan]

ouchie

 

[Joe Fan]

 

[Joe Fan]

My sense from watching this is that elephants are anti-abortion