IMO, OU would have to get a favorable upset or two in their bracket to make it to the FF.
I'll be impressed if any Big 12 team makes it to the Elite Eight, much less the Final Four. There's always a shot, I just don't happen to think it's all that good.
I will say I underestimated how well OU's guards would play, in particular Austin Johnson.
The Sooners are still extremely thin in the frontcourt, but they're doing a superb job of taking care of business. I didn't expect them to be undefeated at this juncture. They still have some of their tougher challenges ahead of them in road games at Waco, Stillwater, and Austin, plus hosting the Jayhawks, but soundly beating the Aggies in College Station, and absolutely thumping both Texas and Baylor in Norman, were impressive in their own right.
Right now it looks like it's a battle between OU and Kansas for the conference championship.
BTW, I'm not someone who dismisses winning a conference championship as an accomplishment. I think it's a big deal --- equal in my mind to making it to a Sweet 16, which is also a big deal to me.
I haven't completely given up on this Texas team. First of all, they're a pretty good team. To say they're not is a problem of perspective --- it's either due to a comparison of past Texas teams, including last year's, or it's because expectations were too high in the first place.
A Rick Barnes' offense needs players who can take their defenders off the dribble to truly operate effectively. This team doesn't really have that. The best pick and roll player, Dogus Balbay, is not much of a perimeter shooter, and for various reasons isn't being allowed to play pick and roll basketball --- a mistake, IMO.
Dexter Pittman on the floor is detrimental to Atchley's game, because Atchley has to be so conscious of transition defense and making up for Pittman's poor rotation choices. I don't know that that's the whole reason for his perimeter shooting woes, but it has hurt Atchley in other areas. The games against Tech and A&M were the first times I've seen Atchley crash the offensive boards in a while. It didn't necessarily show up on the stat sheet, but there have been several possessions he's been instrumental in keeping alive by tapping the ball to a teammate off the offensive glass. Those aren't happening with Pittman in the game.
I like what Abrams showed against Tech and especially A&M. This team is at its best when he's shooting around 10-12 shots per game, focusing more on getting the team into its offense than making sure he's getting his shots.
This is a league where going to more 3 guard offense won't hurt them on the defensive end. It won't make them a Final Four caliber team, but I've never thought they had much of a chance of being that anyway, without a tremendous amount of luck in the tournament.
In retrospect, I still think they should have pulled out the Michigan State and Arkansas games. But I remain impressed they beat UCLA at home and Wisconsin on the road.
I will say Oregon isn't doing Texas any favors.
I think it's been a fun season. I still look forward to seeing what this team can accomplish, especially in terms of growth towards next year.
On the other hand, the complete lack of prowess on the offensive end of either Chapman or Hill has been disconcerting. I really thought Texas would be getting more out of one or the other by this time, and had included that in my expectations for this team for next year.