La Tech Score Prediction Results

[Dionysus]

TEXAS wins 45-14

We have three prediction contest co-champs this week: @Horn6721, @HornHuskerDad and @utxhorns32 with picks of 45-13 — congrats!

The Delta column is the calculated number based on how close the pick was for three data points:

1. Texas’ predicted score and reality
2. Opponent’s predicted score and reality
3. Difference between predicted and actual spread

Lower delta indicates the more accurate prediction. Picking the final score exactly would result in a delta of zero.

If someone picks the wrong winner the Delta column gets a “-” rather than a score

HF	TEXAS	LA TECH	Delta
2003TexasGrad	38	24	34
4th_floor	66	7	56
AC	44	24	22
BevoJoe	36	25	40
BigBull	35	24	40
BurntOrangeLH	34	21	36
caryhorn	42	24	26
Chop	40	21	24
Creek	30	17	36
Dionysus	42	17	12
diverdown	41	20	20
Driver 8	52	24	20
dukesteer	48	18	8
easy	34	17	28
EDT	31	14	28
FWHORN	45	27	26
gahornphan	40	44	-
Garmel	38	21	28
George Bailey	37	23	34
Giovanni Jones	48	24	20
Handler	45	27	26
Horn2RunAgain	30	24	50
Horn6721	45	13	2
HornHuskerDad	45	13	2
horninchicago	38	10	14
Horns11	31	23	46
IvanDiabloHorn	42	27	32
joh	42	10	8
johnnyg88	42	17	12
LonghornCatholic	50	13	12
LonghornDave	27	14	36
LousianaHorn	48	14	6
MajesticII	34	27	48
mb227	44	16	6
militaryhorn	48	20	12
nashhorn	38	27	40
NRHorn	39	21	26
Olehornfan	42	10	8
Pomspoms	45	24	20
RainH2burntO	38	27	40
Run Pincher	31	27	54
Sangre Naranjada	34	20	34
ShAArk92	35	10	20
Statalyzer	34	16	26
tchill	31	27	54
Texanne	35	13	20
theiioftx	45	17	6
uisge beatha	28	21	48
utxhorns32	45	13	2
ViperHorn	41	24	28
Vol Horn 4 Life	31	20	40
WorsterMan	33	20	36

 

[horninchicago]

Hey I questioned all along the predictions with LT well into the 20s. I said 10 and they scored 14. Not bad.

 

[2003TexasGrad]

Hey I questioned all along the predictions with LT well into the 20s. I said 10 and they scored 14. Not bad.

We are fortunate they only scored 14. 2 missed field goals and a wide open reciever underthrown in the endzone in the first half.

 

[horninchicago]

We are fortunate they only scored 14. 2 missed field goals and a wide open reciever underthrown in the endzone in the first half.

If they were a better team capable of scoring at least 20 on Texas, as many of the predictions said, they would have made those field goals and not missed a wide open receiver. That's the way I look at it.

 

[dukesteer]

TEXAS wins 45-14

We have three prediction contest co-champs this week: @Horn6721, @HornHuskerDad and @utxhorns32 with picks of 45-13 — congrats!

The Delta column is the calculated number based on how close the pick was for three data points:

1. Texas’ predicted score and reality
2. Opponent’s predicted score and reality
3. Difference between predicted and actual spread

Lower delta indicates the more accurate prediction. Picking the final score exactly would result in a delta of zero.

If someone picks the wrong winner the Delta column gets a “-” rather than a score

HF	TEXAS	LA TECH	Delta
2003TexasGrad	38	24	34
4th_floor	66	7	56
AC	44	24	22
BevoJoe	36	25	40
BigBull	35	24	40
BurntOrangeLH	34	21	36
caryhorn	42	24	26
Chop	40	21	24
Creek	30	17	36
Dionysus	42	17	12
diverdown	41	20	20
Driver 8	52	24	20
dukesteer	48	18	8
easy	34	17	28
EDT	31	14	28
FWHORN	45	27	26
gahornphan	40	44	-
Garmel	38	21	28
George Bailey	37	23	34
Giovanni Jones	48	24	20
Handler	45	27	26
Horn2RunAgain	30	24	50
Horn6721	45	13	2
HornHuskerDad	45	13	2
horninchicago	38	10	14
Horns11	31	23	46
IvanDiabloHorn	42	27	32
joh	42	10	8
johnnyg88	42	17	12
LonghornCatholic	50	13	12
LonghornDave	27	14	36
LousianaHorn	48	14	6
MajesticII	34	27	48
mb227	44	16	6
militaryhorn	48	20	12
nashhorn	38	27	40
NRHorn	39	21	26
Olehornfan	42	10	8
Pomspoms	45	24	20
RainH2burntO	38	27	40
Run Pincher	31	27	54
Sangre Naranjada	34	20	34
ShAArk92	35	10	20
Statalyzer	34	16	26
tchill	31	27	54
Texanne	35	13	20
theiioftx	45	17	6
uisge beatha	28	21	48
utxhorns32	45	13	2
ViperHorn	41	24	28
Vol Horn 4 Life	31	20	40
WorsterMan	33	20	36

Dion, it might also be fun to keep a running total of the delta column to see who has the lowest total at the end of the season. (Of course, that will be Dukesteer.)

 

[Dionysus]

Dion, it might also be fun to keep a running total of the delta column to see who has the lowest total at the end of the season. (Of course, that will be Dukesteer.)

That is a GREAT idea Duke. I guess this would require participation in every week’s contest because the scores would be skewed in favor of anyone who had fewer picks.

Here’s the other thing I’m not sure how to handle, maybe you or others will have a suggestion.

This week there were three members who all picked it very close (delta of 2) but nobody picked the actual final score. I think we need to acknowledge those who picked it best each week (champ, co-champ, etc) — but what to call this?

At the end of the year we would need to have a “champion” for the season with the lowest overall delta, so what do we call the weekly winners? I have these little banner things (below) I’d like to use to recognize winners but I’m not sure about the best way to do that weekly vs overall season.

Thoughts anyone?

 

[Dionysus]

Also, to keep a running tally of the delta scores I think we would have to disqualify anyone who picked the wrong winner even once, because the delta should be irrelevant if you don’t pick the winning team — no?

Maybe that’s part of the challenge: at a minimum you have to pick the winner of every game correctly to qualify for the season champion.

Pinging @Sangre Naranjada and @Statalyzer for their thoughts.

 

[2003TexasGrad]

If they were a better team capable of scoring at least 20 on Texas, as many of the predictions said, they would have made those field goals and not missed a wide open receiver. That's the way I look at it.

Like I said, we are fortunate they didn't convert.

 

[horninchicago]

Like I said, we are fortunate they didn't convert.

I suppose, but 43 yard field goals aren't exactly givens. So, agree to disagree. And, many quarterbacks miss open receivers. Ehlinger did it.

I just didn't think they would score 20. However it didn't happen, for chrissakes, it didn't.

 

[LonghornCatholic]

Didn't we miss a FG? Didn't Sam miss a few?

We kicked their asses.

 

[NJlonghorn]

Also, to keep a running tally of the delta scores I think we would have to disqualify anyone who picked the wrong winner even once, because the delta should be irrelevant if you don’t pick the winning team — no?

Maybe that’s part of the challenge: at a minimum you have to pick the winner of every game correctly to qualify for the season champion.

Pinging @Sangre Naranjada and @Statalyzer for their thoughts.

There won't be very many people who guess every game's winner correctly, so this would become more of a "pick the winner" contest than a "pick the score" contest. There's a pretty good chance, in fact, that all players would be eliminated.

My proposal would be to give an arbitrary penalty (say, 20 points) for missing the winner, added to the point-difference delta. This would be more fair, imho.

Suppose, for example, that one entrant picks 21-20 LSU next week, while another player picks 45-10 Texas. If the final result is 22-21 Texas, your proposal would eliminate what is intuitively the better prediction. Mine would give the first prediction deltas of 2 for Texas, 0 for LSU, and 22 for the spread, for a total delta of 24. That would impose a hefty penalty for missing the winner, despite a damn good prediction. But it would still come in ahead of the other guy, who whose horrible prediction would yield deltas of 23 for Texas, 11 for LSU, and 34 for the difference, for a total of 68.

Also, if you are going to do a season-long contest, would you consider starting it with next week's game? Some of us (like me) made joke predictions for this game. In my case, I didn't specify a winner, saying 70-0 but I'm not sure who wins. Perhaps a compromise would be allowing any player to drop their worst week.

 

[Austin_Bill]

One of the La Tech TDs came on the heels of the worst roughing the passer call I have ever seen in my life. That took a TD off of our board and they ended up scoring one.

38-0 is more close to how this game went as we called off the dogs and put in the pups for their first scoring drive to end the 3rd and start the 4th quarter.

 

[horninchicago]

Didn't we miss a FG? Didn't Sam miss a few?

We kicked their asses.

I thought so. It's been a while since we had a game like this that was never really in doubt.

Apologies to @2003TexasGrad if my last reply above sounded rude. Not my intent.

 

[Dionysus]

Excellent suggestions @NJlonghorn

My proposal would be to give an arbitrary penalty (say, 20 points) for missing the winner, added to the point-difference delta. This would be more fair, imho.

Agree. I would have to update my Rube Goldberg-esque spreadsheet formulas but I think I can manage it.

Also, if you are going to do a season-long contest, would you consider starting it with next week's game? Some of us (like me) made joke predictions for this game. In my case, I didn't specify a winner, saying 70-0 but I'm not sure who wins. Perhaps a compromise would be allowing any player to drop their worst week.

Or maybe we could say there has to be a minimum of nine prediction entries (or some number), and we take the season average from those to determine a final winner?

 

[LonghornCatholic]

Also, $5 charge for everyone guess to creator of pick-em.

 

[2003TexasGrad]

I thought so. It's been a while since we had a game like this that was never really in doubt.

Apologies to @2003TexasGrad if my last reply above sounded rude. Not my intent.

We should have scored 52.

 

[horninchicago]

We should have scored 52.

We were on our way to it had that egregious roughing penalty not been called.

 

[Statalyzer]

To make a season predictive champion, we'd have to:
1) Assign an arbitrary limit that is the worst someone is allowed possibly score, and assign that as the delta to anyone who doesn't pick for a game.
2) For someone who didn't pick the right winner, either assign them the limit also, or give them a penalty to their delta.

Otherwise, if we get upset by a weaker team on the schedule I could see literally everyone being eliminated at once.

We are fortunate they only scored 14. 2 missed field goals and a wide open reciever underthrown in the endzone in the first half.

They also got 7 they didn't deserve thanks to the roughing call.

 

[Dionysus]

They also got 7 they didn't deserve thanks to the roughing call.

How would everyone here feel if La Tech got a pick six off Sam but it was called back due to their DBs rolling into him like that? It might seem like a reasonable call.

 

[Statalyzer]

Not to me it wouldn't have seemed reasonable, at least.

 

[mb227]

I should get a bonus point for almost being spot-on for Sam's yardage and the tackling of air for a big gain (whiffing and celebrating when the catch was actually made counts as two of those). Just my opinion...

Oh, and I was emphatic that Texas would cover the spread...I guess I have to settle for that as my extracurricular win in this one.

 

[dukesteer]

Dion, let me enhance my season long prediction winner suggestion. I would go with that but also add a monthly champion. So there would be a prognostication champion for the month of September, one for October, one for November and then one champion for the entire season, including the CFP.

For the monthly champions, any predictor who selected the wrong winner even once would automatically be eliminated. That is unless there was no one who picked all of the games for that month correctly. If not, then the “one miss” predictors would be placed in the pool to win for that month.

For the entire season I also like something like @Njlonghorn’s suggestion with the caveat that, at the end of the season (January) if no one correctly selected all of the winners, only the single miss predictors could be considered for the full season prize.

 

[horninchicago]

How would everyone here feel if La Tech got a pick six off Sam but it was called back due to their DBs rolling into him like that? It might seem like a reasonable call.

If it had been malicious. A penalty isn't called any other time someone gets rolled or pushed into another player. Why should be a penalty in this case?

As a partisan homer fan, yes, I may like getting a good break like that. But, that's exactly what it would be, a good break because it's a lousy call. I also think plenty of posters around here would question the call even if it benefited Texas.

 

[Dionysus]

@dukesteer Those are good suggestions and would enhance the prediction contest, but at this point I am doing it by myself and I can’t add more complexity and management overhead to the thing. I work a lot of hours at my day job so I need the contest to be simple to track and update.

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

Wait, I thought Hornfans was your day job.

 

[mb227]

Wait, I thought Hornfans was your day job.

Wait...it isn't?

/ducks and runs

 

[WorsterMan]

Wait, I thought Hornfans was your day job.

Yeah, for Dionysus it's a part time gig he does by himself for love, no pay AND he has to monitor uphauling posts on numerous categories from idoits & maroons...

THANK YOU FOR DOING IT DION !!! WE OBVIOUSLY ENJOY THE SITE!

 

[Horn6721]

NJ
I understand where you are coming from not wanting to count the laTech game since you didn't make a serious prediction.
I tried to get a NCAA March tourney pool to let everyone update their picks after first round since people are just getting a sense of the teams. Got booed down. I guess every official game has to count.

 

[NJlonghorn]

NJ
I understand where you are coming from not wanting to count the laTech game since you didn't make a serious prediction.
I tried to get a NCAA March tourney pool to let everyone update their picks after first round since people are just getting a sense of the teams. Got booed down. I guess every official game has to count.

Counting every game that occurs after the contest is announced makes sense. But retroactively counting games that occurred before the contest is announced is a stretch. If we are going to go back in time and count that game at all (which I could easily argue against), the negative impact should at least be minimized.

 

[Dionysus]

I have been trying to pin down the details for the season prediction contest. This is what I think might work.

1. You must have a minimum of nine predictions entered to qualify for the season prediction championship. This will accommodate anyone who misses a few picks as there are twelve regular season games.
2. If you pick the wrong winner a penalty of 20 points will be added to your delta number for that game.
3. At the end of the season we take your average delta number for the year and that is your season score. Lowest score wins.
4. We will drop your worst (highest) weekly delta number and average the rest.
5. Weekly winners and scores will be announced on the prediction results thread after each game.
6. Bowl game prediction will be its own contest, separate from the regular season contest.

Thoughts?