Is Our Luck Finally Changing? (The Near Decade of Disappointment)

dukesteer

dukesteer

5,000+ Posts
Maybe, just maybe, our seven plus year odyssey of mediocrity and ineptitude may be coming to an end. Talk about bad luck, and bad karma...

If Blake Gideon catches that tipped ball in 2008, we're in the championship game in January of 2009.

If Colt doesn't suffer that freak injury in the first quarter of the Rose Bowl in January of 2010, we probably have another crystal ball in our trophy case.

If Mark Brown doesn't make a terrible decision to abandon the highly successful zone read in favor of an Alabama type power running game, Garrett Gilbert quite possibly becomes a proficient QB, and Brown may still be here with plenty to brag about.

If Mack doesn't pass on players like Andrew Luck (because he had already committed to Gilbert), or RGIII because he wanted to be a QB, or dare I mention Johnny F? (Not sure we would want that legacy here though.)

Then there's the story of budding rock star D coordinator Manny Diaz. Who knows what happened, but he seems to be doing just fine now.

If Charlie Strong doesn't insist on Shawn Watson as his OC, against the objections of most observers.

If Dominick Espinosa and David Ash don't go down in Strong's first game.

If Ash is not concussion prone and, instead of having to leave the game, he remains healthy.

If can't miss running backs Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray become the backs they were expected to be, and if Gray doesn't tear his Achilles.

If Nick Rose doesn't miss the PAT after Heard's comeback heroics against Cal here in 2015.

If Dickson doesn't drop the snap against OSU.

I could go on. In fact, for the period of 2010 through today, I can only think of two highlights: Case McCoy engineering the win against TAMU and our victory against OU in 2015. Other than those two games, I am drawing a blank.

Let's just hope that finally, perhaps our nightmare is coming to a close.

It's about time.
 
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For the first time in years I feel like the program is trending in a positive direction. And I believe that Tom Herman will prove to be the coach we hoped for.
 
I watch Miami play defense and I'm thinking Manny DDDiaz instead of Manny iaz. I think there were cultural issues here the young man didn't know how to navigate. Evidence is he knows how to scheme, coach and recruit.
 
Dionysus said:
For the first time in years I feel like the program is trending in a positive direction. And I believe that Tom Herman will prove to be the coach we hoped for.
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I think and hope you are right. But let's see how we close. We have no excuse to lose to Coach Bro in Austin. And we better not play in the 2017 Texas Bowl the same way we played in the 2014 Texas Bowl. As bad as the Kansas loss was, our performance against Piglet hurt me even more.
 
Duke,

You forgot the biggest "if"

If Billie Powers doesn't try to create his legacy and totally **** up the Luck hire, thus showing he is incapable of rational thought by hiring Patterson.

:deadhorse:
 
Dukesteer, I read your list and am now suffering from melancholy.

I do think TH has turned this program around and has it headed in the right direction.
There will be a few more stumbles, but looking at the effort on the field, the coaching up of existing talent and what is happening on the recruiting front, I see us back to where we belong in short order.
 
I'm not trying to rail on posters but two weeks ago, maybe three we had a much different outlook. Let's remember, and I hope the coaches do too but I know they will, how important the O Line and for that matter the D Line is. IMHO, Charlie Strong kicked too many O Linemen off the team and in 17' too many got hurt. TH and TB really struggled with that but what a difference getting CW back made! If it were not for the bad times the good times would not be as good, so we have plenty to be thankful for this year. I really like the TH hire. Hope the train keeps rolling down hill now.
 
dukesteer said:
....If Nick Rose doesn't miss the PAT after Heard's comeback heroics against Cal here in 2015....
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I thought about that Cal game just yesterday watching him in that crazy Saints comeback vs the Skins

FWIW, he is 7 of 8 on the year on FGs for Wash
nick-rose.jpg
 
dukesteer said:
...I could go on. In fact, for the period of 2010 through today, I can only think of two highlights: Case McCoy engineering the win against TAMU and our victory against OU in 2015. Other than those two games, I am drawing a blank......
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I agree with all that

I would add a couple more highlight wins --
Winning at then #5 Neb in 2010. This was the Ndamukong Suh team (but we then lost 5 of next 6)
In 2011, we beat both BYU and UCLA (lol, this is probably a 'believe it or not'), and then the aggy game you mentioned. We also crushed Cal in the Holiday Bowl
In 2012, we crushed Ole Miss on the road and beat #15 Oreg St in Alamo Bowl
In 2013, we beat ou (but we are 2-6 vs them since 2010)
In 2015, we beat then-#12 Baylor
In 2016, we beat then-#10 Notre Dame then-#8 Baylor.
 
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If Mark Brown doesn't make a terrible decision to abandon the highly successful zone read in favor of an Alabama type power running game, Garrett Gilbertquitepossibly becomes a proficient QB,andBrown may still be here with plenty to bragabout.
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We ran the spread in 2010. A ton of injuries were the biggest factor in not getting to at least 6 wins, BUT I think the “if” should be “what if Gilbert was not a bust that derailed everything.” Personally, I think the Rose Bowl got to his head and he never recovered. Gilbert barely played in 2011 after we changed the offense.

Then there's the story of budding rock star D coordinator Manny Diaz. Who knows what happened, but he seems to be doing just fine now.
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Diaz always starts fine, then offenses figure him out. He had a great defense in 2011 (except for OU which had him figured out). In 2012, he was figured out and Brown made the colassal mistake of retaining him. If was clearly not a “culture” problem as Greg Robinson got the same players to play much, much better and the same players were playing well in 2011 when the other team did not have his schemes figured out. Check out the points Diaz’s defense allowed in the first half of the season at MSU in 2015 versus the second half. Diaz is a younger coach, so i hope for him he has learned from past failures and the meltdown does not come... though i really do not like Miami and would not mind the U losing
 
I would add a couple more highlight wins --
Winning at then #5 Neb in 2010. This was the Ndamukong Suh team (but we then lost 5 of next 6)
In 2011, we beat BYU and UCLA (which probably no one remembers), and then the aggy game you mentioned. We also crushed Cal in the Holiday Bowl
In 2012, we crushed Ole Miss on the road and beat #15 Oreg St in Alamo Bowl
In 2013, we beat ou (but we are 2-6 vs them since 2010)
In 2015, we beat then No 12 Baylor
In 2016, we beat then No 8 Baylor and then No 10 Notre Dame
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Thank you Joe. The 2012 team actually finished in the top 20 and beat a ranked Tech in Lubbock and won with an Ash hail mary against Okie State on the road. I do not get why the 9-4 top 20 finishing 2012 Longhorns that beat a top 15 team in a bowl get lumped in as “mediocre” with three 5-7 teams.

Also, winning 6 in a row in 2013 (we now are getting potentially excited about 4 in a row if we beat Tech and win the bowl) including beating TCU 30-7 and beating WVU in OT was fun.

In 2014, we stomped a ranked WVU 33-16.

There were some memorable wins. Like I said, it was not all mediocrity as we finished with 9 wins and in the top 20 in 2012.

I do hope Herman has us finally on track to get turned around for a decade where 9-4 is our worst record and least memorable season as opposed to our best since 2010.
 
Dionysus said:
For the first time in years I feel like the program is trending in a positive direction. And I believe that Tom Herman will prove to be the coach we hoped for.
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Worms turn slowly. I think I've been on board with the "excuse/reason" for our failures this year over and above all else (including Beck): the offensive line. Look at what has happened to the Cowboys with Smith out. I know Zeke is suspended but I think Morris is good enough to keep that team on the rails if Smith were there. On the left side the Cowboys are starting Beck and Cooper. On the far right is Collins. That's a big drop-off from last year. Now they can't move the ball and we're lucky Dak hasn't been hurt.

It's clearly the major problem this year for the Horns. I say with a healthy line (with the pre-season starters in place) this team is probably AT LEAST 8-3 even with all the other negatives factored in.
 
I35 said:
I'm sure he's using that to challenge our players. I feel this group has been competitive every game outside of Maryland and TCU and will accept the challenge with great results.
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If Conor is at left tackle and everything else is in place then I feel we should win the game easily especially if everyone shows up with their hair on fire.
 
Everybody remembers Colt going down, but we still could have won that game. I still see Bama DE Eryk Anders (from Smithson Valley (TX) high school, 2 miles from my house) coming in totally unblocked and blindsiding Garrett to end the game.

Hell, if not for that stupid shovel-pass interception TD with 17 seconds in the first half we could have been leading. Auggg... too painful. Must forget.
 
Clean said:
Everybody remembers Colt going down, but we still could have won that game. I still see Bama DE Eryk Anders (from Smithson Valley (TX) high school, 2 miles from my house) coming in totally unblocked and blindsiding Garrett to end the game.

Hell, if not for that stupid shovel-pass interception TD with 17 seconds in the first half we could have been leading. Auggg... too painful. Must forget.
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Yes and one of our lineman dove at the feet of the 'Bama player and missed the tackle. He should have just bear-hugged him. It would have stopped the TD.

You know, that hit on Colt is always mentioned but I have to admit that it's just football. Maybe it was a flukey deal but Darius was a load and that's what he does. It's like a quote I remember LONG AGO by some boxer who lost to Thomas Hearns. He said, "I had him on points until he detached my retina."

"Everybody has a plan until they get hit."
Mike Tyson

That's boxing and that's football.
 
bystander said:
Yes and one of our lineman dove at the feet of the 'Bama player and missed the tackle. He should have just bear-hugged him. It would have stopped the TD
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No, the left tackle totally ignored him as if he were invisible. It was like he was doing wind sprints. Check it out.

 
I don't think we're going backwards like we have been the last couple of years, but I'm not totally convinced just yet that we're going forward either. I'm of the opinion that you make your own luck - which is where coaching and preparation come into play. Injuries are going to happen and never at a good time. Depth is huge and is totally dependent on recruiting to keep the shelves stocked (i.e. Alabama).
 
If Blake Gideon catches that tipped ball in 2008, we're in the championship game in January of 2009.
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Or possibly if Jordan Shipley doesn't drop a 60 yd TD in the first quarter. Or if Mack and Greg remember to chew clock on our final drive instead of snapping the ball with 15-20 on the play clock. Or if Earl Thomas and Curtis? Brown can tackle Crabtree in-bounds, as Tech was out of timeouts and may not have gotten to the line fast enough to run another play.

You know, that hit on Colt is always mentioned but I have to admit that it's just football. Maybe it was a flukey deal but Darius was a load and that's what he does.
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Sure but that wasn't even one of the 50 hardest hits Colt had taken while at Texas. And then how often is a guy otherwise physically capable of throwing a ball like he always has, only he's unable to control it due to numbness - he can't feel where the arm is or feel the sensation of football touching his fingers? And not to mention, when was the last time a team lost its starting QB for the game, mid-game, during a Super Bowl or D1A championship game? As far as I can tell, it's never happened before or since.

If Mack doesn't pass on players like Andrew Luck (because he had already committed to Gilbert), or RGIII because he wanted to be a QB, or dare I mention Johnny F? (Not sure we would want that legacy here though.)
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Glad we didn't get Manziel, but the thing about "missing" on Manziel and Griffin is that almost everybody missed them. They only had about 20 combined options to play quarterback at D1A, and only a few for P5 schools. Passing on Luck hurt, but literally every single coach in the country would have gladly taken Gilbert. He was THE definitive, consensus, best high-school QB in the nation. And let's not forget Mack wanted Vince Young as QB and Paul Thompson as WR when Stoops wanted them the other way around. IMO Mack's whiffs were on the OL more than QB, and also I think he just got older and tired and didn't put the same energy into the team that he had done when he was younger.

BUT I think the “if” should be “what if Gilbert was not a bust that derailed everything.” Personally, I think the Rose Bowl got to his head and he never recovered.
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I think he was ruined by a combination of:
1) Greg Davis offense
2) Poor OL play
3) Even crappier WR play. We almost lost to NU in 2009 partially because Kirkendoll dropped a would-be 75 yard TD and Dan Buckner turned a perfect pass into a pick that went right off his hands. Then against Alabama, we gave Gilbert no help - one interception bounced off DJ Monroe's hands, one interception bounced off Marquise Goodwin's hands, and Malcolm Williams dropped a TD pass. During that Alabama game, Shipley was the only Texas player to catch a pass while more than 5 yards past the LOS! Gilbert might have looked a lot better in 2010 if Shipley had still been around - I actually kept track of TD passes lost by / interceptions caused by drops in the 2010. Ended up with something like 9 of the former and 7 of the later.
4) Mack/Greg signalling to everyone - fans, Gilbert, the whole Texas team, and the whole Alabama team and coaching staff - "We don't trust Gilbert to do anything" for the entire first half of the game. We might have well have just announced to Alabama that they could stack the box and press the receivers and we'd play right into their hands. Then in the second half they realized "Hey Alabama is trying to single-cover Jordan F'N Shipley and Gilbert has a good arm, let's let him just hit Jordan all over the field." But it was too late by then.

So, IMO the problem was Texas more than Gilbert. If he had gone to another school, he might have been a star. Notice how much better he looked at SMU than at Texas? Now to that some say "Well he was playing against much weaker competition." But, balancing that out, he should have also been playing with much weaker teammates. And if he wasn't, well then that explains everything right there.

I'm not trying to rail on posters but two weeks ago, maybe three we had a much different outlook.
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I agree. Hard to make too much of beating a team who lost their starting QB in the first quarter. Granted our D has held other similarly-skilled QBs to 17, 29, and 10 points in regulation, so maybe we'd have won anyway. But there's definitely a lot of caution behind this optimism.
 
Not totally relevant to this thread, but it does kinda go along with the "what if's" being bandied about here. In his presser today, TH said that we have thrown 419 passes as an offense this year. Against those 419 passes, our opponents have been called TWO (that's 2, 1+1=2, two!) times for defensive pass interference! I thought it was just me being a sore loser and a hopeless homer, but how much more evidence can there be of anti Texas bias? TH was discussing the offensive PI calls we have gotten against us. Not sure how many of those there been, but it is more than two.
 
in regards to turning the corner, who is stepping up next year and supplying what Connor Williams does on the O line? Or do we see a repeat of what we saw from the O line from the time Conner was hurt until he returned vs WVU?
 
Notice how much better he looked at SMU than at Texas?
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He was also a senior and playing bad competition. His senior year was great, but his junior year was not. He had 15 TDs and 15s INTs as a junior at SMU. I agree his WRs at Texas were subpar and oline injuries were huge, but I still think had he redshirted all of 2009 and started in 2010, things would have gone better. Case McCoy was nothing special in 2011, but he was making throws Gilbert should have been able to make in 2011.
 
In defense of the left tackle, that play is also on Gilbert.
When he sees him lined up there, he is supposed to believe he's coming and get rid of the ball within a 3 count to a receiver or the 5th row of seats in the stadium.
 
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