INFLATION--FED's cutting rates again...
- Thread starter Chop
- Start date
Ha!
He's confusing concavity with slope, or something...
He could just be honest and say "The inflation RATE is now going down, due in large part to falling gas prices."
Yes, he could - but that would not fit the pattern his administration has shown so far. They tend to put spin on everything - it's hard to take anything at face value from them.
https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/inflation
Inflation is not done yet. Prices continued to rise strongly for basics such as food, rent and new vehicles. There is some evidence that food prices may be moderating after a year’s worth of large monthly increases. But continuing large wage increases at many businesses are likely to keep upward pressure on most prices for some time to come. Expect price inflation at the end of the year to be around 8.0%, down a bit from the peak of 9.1% in June, but still high. Inflation will likely fall to around 3%-4% by the end of next year if the economy slows, as expected.
The Federal Reserve is not done hiking interest rates yet. The lower July inflation report was welcome, of course, and it likely will keep the Fed to its expected half-point hike in September instead of a larger one, but the Fed knows that still-strong wage increases are likely to keep pressure on prices in general. It will likely take several months in a row of smallish price increases before the Fed will feel that the trend has changed.
Inflation is not done yet. Prices continued to rise strongly for basics such as food, rent and new vehicles. There is some evidence that food prices may be moderating after a year’s worth of large monthly increases. But continuing large wage increases at many businesses are likely to keep upward pressure on most prices for some time to come. Expect price inflation at the end of the year to be around 8.0%, down a bit from the peak of 9.1% in June, but still high. Inflation will likely fall to around 3%-4% by the end of next year if the economy slows, as expected.
The Federal Reserve is not done hiking interest rates yet. The lower July inflation report was welcome, of course, and it likely will keep the Fed to its expected half-point hike in September instead of a larger one, but the Fed knows that still-strong wage increases are likely to keep pressure on prices in general. It will likely take several months in a row of smallish price increases before the Fed will feel that the trend has changed.
These economies have the highest inflation rate in the world; this country tops with 222.30% in 2022
If we don't get, and keep, inflation under control, we could end up with some new peer nations...
(Failed) Nation.....................Inflation Rate (as of 6/13/22)
Venezuela...............................222.3%
Lebanon.................................206.2%
Sudan.....................................220.7%
Syria.......................................139%
Zimbabwe..............................131.7%
Turkey.....................................73.5%
Suriname................................62.2%
Argentina................................58%
Sri Lanka.................................54.6%
Iran.........................................39.3%
Ethiopia..................................36.6%
If we don't get, and keep, inflation under control, we could end up with some new peer nations...
(Failed) Nation.....................Inflation Rate (as of 6/13/22)
Venezuela...............................222.3%
Lebanon.................................206.2%
Sudan.....................................220.7%
Syria.......................................139%
Zimbabwe..............................131.7%
Turkey.....................................73.5%
Suriname................................62.2%
Argentina................................58%
Sri Lanka.................................54.6%
Iran.........................................39.3%
Ethiopia..................................36.6%
Biden touts new Inflation Reduction Bill/Law as the greatest climate change law ever.
I still look at the Raskin interview the other day where he couldn't name a single provision that was going to immediately help people... "Next question..."
Well, at least it's good to know there will be some inflation reduction due to this law, huh...
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
Government spending doesn't cause inflation. Money supply growth causes inflation. The problem is that the government is not using taxes or debt to fund their activities. They are creating new $s ex nihilo and spending it on whatever they like, which includes stimulus checks to all of us. That is what causes price inflation.
Government spending through debt can also cause inflation because the money the government receives can be create ex nihilo as well. It depends on where the money comes from. But then when the debt is paid the money supply in circulation essentially disappears so at the end there could be some price deflation.
So government spending does add to inflation even though it doesn't cause inflation? Got it.
Last edited:
I think it's fair to say that government spending all by itself doesn't cause inflation. However, government spending beyond politically viable taxation levels (as we've seen for decades but especially the last few years) puts enormous political strain on the central bank to boost the money supply and keep interest rates lower than the market would suggest is appropriate, which causes inflation.
Fed minutes show more rate hikes coming, but pace could slow
"...the minutes released on Wednesday showed policymakers committed to raising rates as high as necessary to bring inflation under control, and acknowledging that they would have to engineer less spending and lower overall growth for that to happen."
"Participants agreed that there was little evidence to date that inflation pressures were subsiding," the minutes said. Though some inflation reduction might come through improving global supply chains or drops in the prices of fuel and other commodities, some of the heavy lifting would also have to come by imposing higher borrowing costs on households and businesses."
"...the minutes released on Wednesday showed policymakers committed to raising rates as high as necessary to bring inflation under control, and acknowledging that they would have to engineer less spending and lower overall growth for that to happen."
"Participants agreed that there was little evidence to date that inflation pressures were subsiding," the minutes said. Though some inflation reduction might come through improving global supply chains or drops in the prices of fuel and other commodities, some of the heavy lifting would also have to come by imposing higher borrowing costs on households and businesses."
Meanwhile, South of the Border...
Mexico's inflation is sitting at 8.15%, leading our favorite central banker (above) to recently deliver a 2nd straight 75 basis-point increase to the interest rate.
"No soy la secretaria, pendejo, soy la jefa!"
(shouted recently at Mexico's Central Bank when a private banker told her to fetch him some cafe con azucar)
Mexico's inflation is sitting at 8.15%, leading our favorite central banker (above) to recently deliver a 2nd straight 75 basis-point increase to the interest rate.
"No soy la secretaria, pendejo, soy la jefa!"
(shouted recently at Mexico's Central Bank when a private banker told her to fetch him some cafe con azucar)
Meanwhile, South of the Border...
Mexico's inflation is sitting at 8.15%, leading our favorite central banker (above) to recently deliver a 2nd straight 75 basis-point increase to the interest rate.
"No soy la secretaria, pendejo, soy la jefa!"
(shouted recently at Mexico's Central Bank when a private banker told her to fetch him some cafe con azucar)
I'm now ready for cocktails and dinner at Trudy's...
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
No. You missed it.
Government spending itself doesn't cause inflation. Separately, all inflation is caused by money supply growth. Logically following, government spending can cause inflation if the source of the spending is money supply growth.
Government spending backed by taxes does not cause inflation.
Government spending borrowed from people, businesses, or banks does not cause inflation. But the cost is transferred to your children and grandchildren
Government spending from money created from thin air does cause inflation.
You are only looking at half of the equation. A lack of supply can cause inflation.
Yes, Supply Problems Can Cause Inflation | AIER
Giggitty!
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
Yes. But supply issues don't cause what is called "secular inflation" or inflation across all industries. We are seeing inflation across all industries. Inflation is worse where there are some supply issues but that isn't the biggest factor.
Supply cause inflation is relatively short lived. The price goes up which incentivizes more production which brings the inflation down. Production didn't go down as much as money supply went up 40% of all $ existing were created ex nihilo in 2020-2021.
Just think Deez, if we knew each other when we were younger, we wouldn’t fight over who to go after:
Me: right
Deez: left
Me: right
Yep. They're both cute, but the one on the left is spectacular. And when @Garmel was younger, he'd be saying, "what do you expect me to do with only two? Where are their moms?"
Older Garmel could give it a shot if I had some Viagra.
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