not talking about you. it's just a saying - dividends are for old ladies.
INFLATION--FED's cutting rates again...
- Thread starter Chop
- Start date
I get that you were making a joke, but the Demx population forgets that those dividends are a big part of what funds those teacher and government pensions...yet Biden, et al, want to demonize them for daring to do what they have promised shareholders.
There are also a LOT of retirees who hold the stocks individually and who expected to be able to sell off some of the holdings to pay for care later in life...I know mom still has a metric phuckton of what old XOM employees call the 'two dollar shares.' Dad had a lot that was acquired starting in the mid-late 60's through ESOP deductions...
Per China Insights:
Bank runs have started in China—including on once-mighty Agricultural Bank of China—one of China’s largest banks. They don’t have the money to pay their depositors. Big lines have formed, with much police presence. Very low limits have been set on withdrawals. Bank cards are getting locked up. People are lining up at 2 am with hopes of getting into the bank branch to make a withdrawal. Other major Chinese banks, such as ICBC and Guangxi Provence Bank, are also experiencing bank runs. Smaller “village banks” may be doing even worse, with many experiencing bank runs by depositors. The CCP government has begun arresting various bank industry workers, and is clamping down on protests and anti-government / anti-bank speech.
Home mortgage defaults are skyrocketing.
Bank runs have started in China—including on once-mighty Agricultural Bank of China—one of China’s largest banks. They don’t have the money to pay their depositors. Big lines have formed, with much police presence. Very low limits have been set on withdrawals. Bank cards are getting locked up. People are lining up at 2 am with hopes of getting into the bank branch to make a withdrawal. Other major Chinese banks, such as ICBC and Guangxi Provence Bank, are also experiencing bank runs. Smaller “village banks” may be doing even worse, with many experiencing bank runs by depositors. The CCP government has begun arresting various bank industry workers, and is clamping down on protests and anti-government / anti-bank speech.
Home mortgage defaults are skyrocketing.
I was born in 1976, so I remember almost nothing from before 1980 and had no sense of the economy until probably the mid-'80s. However, my dad (born in 1949 so a few years older than you) tells me it was pretty rough in the late '70s and early '80s for a family.
He had a government job back then (for the regional parks department) and was unionized, so superficially things seemed good - his job was secure and his pay went up fast. However, inflation more than made up for that. Food, rent, utilities, and gas were skyrocketing and crushing for a family of 6. Furthermore, when he wanted to buy a home and get out of the rent trap, interest rates were brutal. It frustrated him, because even though he was making more money, he could never get ahead. Things turned around when we moved to Texas in '84, but economically, '74-'84 was a lost decade.
Are things worse now? We don't have the unemployment we had then, but what's going to happen when we raise interest rates enough to really rein in the inflation? That's gonna hurt like a mofo.
In this case, I think you're right. However, is it possible for some major commodity to get so expensive by simple supply and demand that it builds higher costs and therefore inflation into other goods and services? Yes. But again, that is not what's causing the current problem. This inflation is a choice.
...and old men. My investment advisor set up my brokerage account when I retired, and his advice has turned out to be superb -
"We'll go for a solid mix of growth and dividends, and we'll set your account for automatic reinvestment of dividends for now. The compounding of the dividends through reinvestment will get you solid growth in up-markets, and the dividends will soften the impact of downturns. When you need money later in life, the growth of those reinvested dividends will help a lot"
Even now, as my stocks show some paper losses, the dividends keep rolling in - and it does soften the impact of the downturn.
Yes, I do invest in some non-dividend-payers, just for the growth potential - but the advice to look for continued records of dividends has been good.
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
Of course. And some of that spurred on inflation early on. Supply was restricted. But the difference you hinted at. If there is 1 commodity or a set of commodities that affect one another then that can be a specific supply/demand issue. However, when you get inflation across the whole economy, then that is monetary policy, which is what we are seeing today. Again agreeing with you.
Wait a minute. You mean you followed the advice of a qualified investment advisor, instead of plowing your life savings into Bitcoin? Man, what were you thinking?!?!?
About 10-15 years ago, there was a publicly-traded operator of funeral homes, Stonemor or something like that, that used to spit out 10-15%+ dividends annually. I'm no expert on this, but I think many of that sort of very-high dividend stock companies (some pipeliners too, and sometimes very risky, often Greece-based, dry-bulk shipping companies) are actually partnerships or trusts--some of which expire on a certain date. So I would get these sort of "weird" tax documents from them each year. I'd scratch my head and then send them directly to my CPA.
(But I'm definitely not recommending any of this stuff. All should talk with a qualified investment advisor before dabbling in this strange brew of ultra-high dividend investments.)
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That's the key - I was thinking!
AC
2,500+ Posts
I’m up 300% since 3/2020. Haha. Zoom out.Wait a minute. You mean you followed the advice of a qualified investment advisor, instead of plowing your life savings into Bitcoin? Man, what were you thinking?!?!?
AC
2,500+ Posts
Dollar cost average.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...ffbf5e-06a1-11ed-80b6-43f2bfcc6662_story.html
We woke the beast, and now we may have to learn to live with it. After more than 20 years of low, stable inflation, it’s come roaring back — at more than 9% — and it may never return to pre-pandemic levels. We’ve already lost the benefits of our former economy: low interest rates and pay raises that actually make you richer. Now we also have to manage a new risk in our lives, the beast we thought we had tamed.
We woke the beast, and now we may have to learn to live with it. After more than 20 years of low, stable inflation, it’s come roaring back — at more than 9% — and it may never return to pre-pandemic levels. We’ve already lost the benefits of our former economy: low interest rates and pay raises that actually make you richer. Now we also have to manage a new risk in our lives, the beast we thought we had tamed.
It's certainly not good for the incumbent party...
On the other hand, the dead don't care about pesky things like inflation rates.
Well, we're testing that in the Senate races. This is the shittiest slate of candidates I've ever seen, and I remember 2010 and 2012. Is it possible to lose Senate seats when the opposition has 9 percent inflation? We're going to find out.
I'm all for dismantling the RINO establishment but not with guys like Dr. Oz and Walker. Trump made a huge mistake endorsing these two.
Will it hurt us in the long run? We'll wait and see.
^I'm with you. The Georgia Senate seat was very winnable for the GOP - a candidate other than Walker would probably win in a landslide. With Walker it's at best a toss-up. It's going to be tough for the GOP to take control of the Senate - fortunately the race for control of the House looks much better.
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Running Walker was likely an effort to draw some of the black voters or even white Demx sports fans that have been harmed by the current regime. Other than that, putting him into the race makes zero sense...
What's sad is that there weren't a lot of good candidates to choose from. Oz and Walker aren't very good, but I wasn't very impressed with the people they defeated either. I don't know what's wrong with the parties in those two states, but they are an incompetent as hell in candidate recruitment. Hell, Dr. Oz isn't even from Pennsylvania. I think he's from New Jersey. Nothing against the guy. He's interesting on TV, and I'm sure he means well, but he's a crappy political candidate.
It sucks, because I think Warnock and Fetterman would normally be easy to defeat. Warnock is wildly left for Georgia. Is he less liberal than Elizabeth Warren? If he is, I don't see much evidence of it. He should get curb-stomped by 20 points. Fetterman is also pretty left for Pennsylvania (though I think the disparity with the electorate is less) with major health issues, and he's a weirdo. A mediocre candidate would beat him. If they couldn't find better, McConnell should have just licked Pat Toomey's nuts until he decided to run for another term. He'd win that race 57-43.
If we had those seats in the bag (as we should), we could put more effort into flipping Arizona, Nevada, and New Hampshire and holding Wisconsin. Instead we're winging it hoping Biden's general shittiness bleeds over into the Senate races. Maybe it will, and maybe it won't.
Nevada is a done deal. NH is close to it. Arizona could use the money.
If there's any team that could miss an open shot or layup, it's the GOP.
Well, at least counting on Joes shittiness is a known quantity - and not likely to improve.
It's a known quantity, but you can't put all your eggs in the shittiness basket. If the candidate sucks, it gives the Democrat a chance to divert attention away from the shittiness and say, "you're not voting for Biden, you're voting for me, and I'm better than this clown." And of course, the media will help them do this. In Georgia, they're not going to talk about Biden sucking. They're going to talk about the goofy stuff Walker has said. In PA, they'll talk about how Dr. Oz isn't from PA, how he's a Turkish citizen, and how he promoted some weird hippie stuff on his TV show.
That's how Richard Mourdock lost to Joe Donnelly. Mourdock made his dumbass rape comment, and Donnelly didn't start defending Obama (who was unpopular in Indiana). He essentially said, "I'm generally pro-life (which he was), and I'm not an idiot." The media talked about nothing but Mourdock's comment. That combination was good enough. Keep in mind that both Warnock and Fetterman have held statewide offices, so they're making this argument to people who have already voted for them. That's easier to do.
Also don't assume that Biden's numbers can't improve. Gas prices have fallen some. If that continues to happen, his numbers will almost surely go up at least some, and in a tight swing state, that's enough to make a difference, especially when the Republican candidates are that crappy.
Yellen predicts Fed’s anti-inflation policies will be ‘successful,’ after wrongly calling it 'transitory'
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
"- Former Treasury chief says US unlikely to see soft landing
- He also says there is a high likelihood of recession in the US "
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/25/for-the-fed-and-consumers-inflation-remains-a-commodities-story.html
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
"- Former Treasury chief says US unlikely to see soft landing
- He also says there is a high likelihood of recession in the US "
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/25/for-the-fed-and-consumers-inflation-remains-a-commodities-story.html
- Commodities have been the heart of the inflation boom.
- June’s inflation report said nearly half of higher prices in the CPI index were due to energy commodities like oil and natural gas, though many are now off their recent highs.
- While rent and services make up a rising share of inflation, the Fed outlook and action still depends heavily on whether commodities bounce back, or keep fading.
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