INFLATION--FED's cutting rates again...

[Chop]

Now here's some good news (sort of...):

Inflation is now down to 8.3% (from 8.5%)...

Inflation slowed in April after seven months of relentless gains, a tentative sign that price increases may be peaking while still imposing a financial strain on American households.

Consumer prices jumped 8.3% last month from a year ago, the government said Wednesday. That was below the 8.5% year-over-year surge in March, which was the highest since 1981. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3% from March to April, the smallest increase in eight months.

US inflation dips from 4-decade high but still causing pain
US inflation dips to 8.3% but stays close to 40-year high –as it happened

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

Who is that chick on the left? Was she famous at one time? I know I haven't seen her in the news for quite a while. Has the media ghosted her, or memory-holed her (get your minds out of the gutter, you know what that means) for some strange reason?

 

[mchammer]

I am looking at the curve with an understanding of the Cantillon Effect. Money supply inflation (the real inflation) causes prices to increase. But that increase isn't all at once or equal across the economy. It starts where the money is injected and then goes out from there. Some goods are much less affected than others. Much of it depends on what the people who first get the money buy and so on.

That means a curve isn't going to go straight up and straight down. The curve will follow a natural pattern of high slope, decreasing slope, inflection point, and then beginning of negative slope. The inflation curve is still in a high slope situation, which means the Cantillon Effect hasn't completely played out yet.

At the end of the day, it impacts prices in a pipeline. Besides QT is starting in weeks.

 

[Monahorns]

Besides QT is starting in weeks.

I saw the April number did tick down a bit, but we will see if that consists.

You do know Powell has been talking about QT for a year and he still hasn't started, right?

 

[mb227]

I saw the April number did tick down a bit, but we will see if that consists.

You do know Powell has been talking about QT for a year and he still hasn't started, right?

The number ticked down but was still higher than anticipated. AND it did not take into account the new spike in gas prices across the past week...

This is NOT getting better anytime soon...the best MOST can hope for is to see a leveling somewhere in the near term. Well, that and hoping that they don't need to retire anytime soon since the funds have taken a massive hit courtesy of the policies of President Brandon...

 

[Chop]

The number ticked down but was still higher than anticipated. AND it did not take into account the new spike in gas prices across the past week...

This is NOT getting better anytime soon...the best MOST can hope for is to see a leveling somewhere in the near term. Well, that and hoping that they don't need to retire anytime soon since the funds have taken a massive hit courtesy of the policies of President Brandon...

I don't know what will happen, but I think we may plateau off for a bit. Maybe in the 8's, maybe in the 9's or 10's. When inflation finally does come down in earnest, it may go down and hang around 4-5% (which is ok). I doubt we'll see the 0-2% inflation for a very long time.

More shocks in the energy markets could throw that off and send us deep into the teens.

This is wrt general inflation. Food inflation may stay above 10% for a while.

 

[bystander]

They have blamed Trump and are so sick that they sleep well on that.

And yes, when it drops, they will take full credit and their emotionally challenged serfs will applaud loudly.

 

[theiioftx]

Fuel prices held tight or dropped slightly during that period. They have since jumped again so the next report will be back up.

 

[HornHuskerDad]

Even with the miniscule reduction in the inflation rate, it's still much too high. Anyone on a fixed income (such as retirees) is really feeling the pain. And the Biden Administration doesn't seem to care.

 

[mb227]

Even with the miniscule reduction in the inflation rate, it's still much too high. Anyone on a fixed income (such as retirees) is really feeling the pain. And the Biden Administration doesn't seem to care.

It is not that they don't SEEM to care. They flat DO NOT care.

And I could not help but to notice that KJP has the same annoying feature of laughing or snickering when she does not know how to answer a question...something which appeared again yesterday when she was asked about the baby formula shortages.

 

[Chop]

I think that, globally, food inflation has a long ways to go up. Fertilizer shortages, and the Russian + Ukrainian wheat/grain exports going off line, can really drive up global food prices. The Middle East relies heavily on Russian + Ukrainian wheat/grain exports.

Oh yeah, when the price of tires or ball point pens go up, people may gripe about it. When they run out of food, or when food prices get unaffordable, governments topple.

Fortunately, the Middle East has a long history and tradition of stable governments...

 

[Monahorns]

I don't know what will happen, but I think we may plateau off for a bit. Maybe in the 8's, maybe in the 9's or 10's. When inflation finally does come down in earnest, it may go down and hang around 4-5% (which is ok). I doubt we'll see the 0-2% inflation for a very long time.

Abolish the Fed and it would come down to a healthy level 0%.

 

[Chop]

US stocks end mixed after another day of erratic trading

Trading on Wall Street has been volatile, with indexes prone to sharp swings from one day to the next, or within a single day, as investors try to shield their portfolios from the impact of the highest inflation in decades and rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve moves to tame surging prices.

Another dire readout on inflation sparked a wave of selling early Thursday, with technology stocks weighing down the S&P 500 index the most. The sector made solid gains during the pandemic amid a broad shift to working and shopping from home, but it has seen sharp declines as inflation worsens and interest rates head higher. Apple and chipmaker Nvidia each fell 2.7%, while Microsoft dropped 2%.

“The pullback in growth stocks, tech in particular, has been dramatic,” said Brian Price, head of investment management at Commonwealth Financial Network. “We have a reckoning, if you will, that maybe we did go too far too fast” with many of those stocks.

 

[Chop]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/wha...lation-costs-families-extra-311-a-month-.html

So that's $3,732 per year less in disposable income.

Less disposable income at the middle and lower ranges of households means less low-and-mid-range entertainment, restaurant eating, movie going, etc. Also, downgrades: beef-to-chicken, nice restaurant to not-so-nice restaurant, good hotel to so-so hotel, premium gas to that 87 octane junk, etc. Providers of the middle level of things may be hit hardest, as the middle shifts to the lower-middle, the lower-middle shifts to the lower, etc. I would think luxury and high end goods have some protection from this, although many of the higher end families may be taking some serious hits in their portfolios.

This year, the Griswolds will be staying at Motel 6's instead of La Quintas on their vacation.

 

[Chop]

Here's a little gem from the same CNBC article...

"Consider taking on temporary side gigs, such as freelancing or tutoring, or even asking your manager for more assignments for increased pay ..."

[translation-- "Get a 2nd job and quit yer b!tching, peasants..." ]

What's next -- send the retired folks on fixed incomes back to work in fast food...?!?!?!?

I guess at CNBC, it's....

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/wha...lation-costs-families-extra-311-a-month-.html

 

[mchammer]

Abolish the Fed and it would come down to a healthy level 0%.

This tweet suggests the source of inflation was fiscal, not monetary.

 

[Monahorns]

This tweet suggests the source of inflation was fiscal, not monetary.

#1, monetary inflation always produces price increases. We have had historic levels of $s created out of thin air in 2020 and 2021.

#2, the Fed is the culprit trying to cover their tracks. End the fed and inflation by and large goes away.

 

[Facing Addiction]

 

[Chop]

Elizabeth Warren, Pelosi, and others have recently been seriously tossing around the idea of price controls.

I can’t think of an example where that has ever been effective.

 

[HornHuskerDad]

Elizabeth Warren, Pelosi, and others have recently been seriously tossing around the idea of price controls.

We should seriously consider tossing Warren, Pelosi, and The Squad.

 

[theiioftx]

Vote Republican, stay in Texas.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Biden didn't cause inflation, but he made it worse. Link.

 

[Garmel]

Biden didn't cause inflation, but he made it worse. Link.

Just think how bad inflation would be if Joe's Build Back Better plan had passed.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Just think how bad inflation would be if Joe's Build Back Better plan had passed.

Yep, Manchin and Sinema did them a huge favor by not being insane.

 

[Chop]

Predictably, amateur (and professional) economists are not liking these price controls suggestions (threats)...

Elizabeth Warren’s Price-Gouging Bill Flunks Basic Economics

The proposed bill reads pretty vague and ambiguous...

"Senate Democrats, led by Elizabeth Warren, just released a bill that would make price-gouging unlawful. The proposal gives further life to price controls, one of the worst policy failures from the last period of high inflation, decades ago.

According to the bill, “It shall be unlawful for a person to sell or offer for sale a good or service at an unconscionably excessive price during an exceptional market shock, regardless of the person’s position in a supply chain or distribution network.” What is an “unconscionably excessive” price? Presumably Warren knows it when she sees it. The punishment would be the lesser of a $25,000 fine or 5 percent of revenues.

This bill flunks basic economics. Firms raise prices for two reasons: they face higher costs and must pass them on to the consumer, or they are seeing increased demand. Right now, both things are happening, though it’s often hard to separate the two. Costs are higher because of higher energy prices and problems with supply chains. Demand is hot because Americans have savings from the pandemic and the government, with respect to both fiscal and monetary policy, was too expansionary."

 

[Chop]

https://www.cato.org/blog/politics-gasoline-prices-price-controls

CATO doesn't like it one bit.

The FTC would have VERY BROAD discretion, under Warren's price controls bill:

"A bill introduced in the House would grant the President the power to declare an “energy emergency,” during which large price increases in a defined geographic market would be unlawful. During this designated time period, wholesalers and retailers would be banned from charging unconscionably excessive” prices, where “the seller is exploiting the circumstances related to an energy emergency to increase prices unreasonably.” [our emphasis]

These terms are highly subjective, granting lots of discretion to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) over how to effectively cap prices.

The legislation promises the FTC will “take into account” whether the offending price “grossly exceeds” the average price the seller charged in the preceding month, or the price charged by other sellers in the area. This sounds like a blank check for the FTC to use whichever benchmark it chooses."

 

[Chop]

CATO doesn't like it one bit.

... and neither does Kato

 

[Chop]

Now here's a more difficult conceptual question:

Right before, during, and right after a hurricane, should sellers of Lumber/plywood, gasoline, water, batteries, etc. be permitted to charge whatever sky-high price they want to?

Many states have laws prohibiting price gouging during natural disasters. That leads me to believe that most people would say 'no price gouging.' In other words, most people would support at least some form of price controls.

 

[Chop]

Hurricane Irma: A case of $99 water stirs price gouging worries

"[Shortly before the hurricane hit], a 24-pack of 16.9-ounce bottles of Ice Mountain Brand Spring Water was priced at $99.99 on Amazon.com from a third-party seller called BestSource OfficeSupplies.

The same product was priced at $9.99 for delivery on Staples.com. Similar cases of Ice Mountain Spring Water (larger bottles holding 23.7 ounces) ranged in price from less than $8 to $44.90 at 29 online stores."

 

[mb227]

... and neither does Kato

Kato ALSO disapproves...