INFLATION--FED's cutting rates again...

I read Shell pulled out of a partnership with Burma due to political issues, so not happening. Sold their share to PTT of Thailand, so they can at least develop it.
Shell is Dutch, I think...

Yeah, I know they mostly operate out of Houston, but I think it's a Dutch company. And the Dutch didn't have many f@cking scruples when they were plundering the Indonesians, so why would they care about the Burmese...?
 
"The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) set 0.25-0.50 percent as the new target range for the federal funds rate — a key benchmark borrowing rate that influences anything from auto loans and credit card rates to yields on certificates of deposits (CDs) and savings accounts. Officials previously slashed that rate to zero at an emergency meeting in March 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic first cratered the U.S. economy.

Fed officials also projected a 1.75-2 percent fed funds rate by the end of 2022, which would mean seven total rate hikes this year assuming the U.S. central bank moves in quarter-point increments."
 
Inflation and Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Expected to Take Toll on U.S. Economy and Housing Sector

The Fed is on the verge of repeating history: Morning Brief

"The ESR Group now projects full-year 2022 real GDP growth of 2.3 percent, down from last month's projected 2.8 percent, but acknowledges that many of its forecast's base assumptions, including a near-term resolution to the acute global economic effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, represent substantial downside risks to both the macroeconomic and housing outlooks.
...
the ESR Group continues to expect the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate five times in 2022 and eight times total through 2023."


"Powell even said Wednesday at the presser that balance sheet runoff (quantitative tightening) could come as early as the next Fed meeting in May."
 
Paulvolcker.jpg

PAUL VOLCKER

An underappreciated, but immensely important, man in American economic history.
 
Yes, and who appointed Volcker and supported his policy? Jimmy Carter. Reagan continued that which is kudos to him, but Carter should get credit for that.
 
Paulvolcker.jpg

PAUL VOLCKER

An underappreciated, but immensely important, man in American economic history.

Best thing Carter ever did. Republicans often cite Carter as the epitome of the bad president, but he did some things right. Appointing Volcker was wise. He also deregulated the airlines and began the defense buildup that Reagan continued. I'm not saying he was a great president. He wasn't and make plenty of mistakes. However, the framing of him as a total dumpster fire is incorrect, and it is definitely possible to do much worse.
 
Best thing Carter ever did. Republicans often cite Carter as the epitome of the bad president, but he did some things right. Appointing Volcker was wise. He also deregulated the airlines and began the defense buildup that Reagan continued. I'm not saying he was a great president. He wasn't and make plenty of mistakes. However, the framing of him as a total dumpster fire is incorrect, and it is definitely possible to do much worse.
My take is that Carter was an average President who got in over his head--esp. wrt foreign policy. People don't remember technical details, but they certainly remember the gas station lines and shortages, the general malaise, high inflation, and the images of blindfolded American hostages being led around by some yahoos in Iran.
 
My take is that Carter was an average President who got in over his head--esp. wrt foreign policy. People don't remember technical details, but they certainly remember the gas station lines and shortages, the general malaise, high inflation, and the images of blindfolded American hostages being led around by some yahoos in Iran.
AND...they remember Billy.

Hunter is #MushForBrains Billy.
 
USD/CAD inflation battles of North America


"Federal Chairman Powell downgraded GDP for 2022 from 4% to 2%, fed announced 6 more rate increases for the remainder of 2022. Canada inflation continues to rise for the month of February, and monetary policymakers counter by raising interest rates with a goal of 2% inflation by end of 2022, February inflation rate 5.7% for Canada, USA inflation rate was staggering 7.5%, Federal target 4.3% inflation rate by end of 2022 for the USA."
 
I could see how the Fed could achieve the 2% inflation goal. Suppose food and energy prices double, but the housing market collapses. You simply change the weighted averages to emphasize the cost of housing (rents) and presto, the deflation offsets the inflation and your policy has succeeded. Never mind that asset values plunge and essentials skyrocket.
 
With Inflation Surging, Biden Targets Ocean Shipping

"The president is targeting shipping companies that have jacked up prices during the pandemic, but critics say bigger economic forces are at work.

President Biden has identified a new culprit that he says is helping fuel America’s skyrocketing prices: The ocean vessels that ferry containers stuffed with foreign products to America’s shores each year.

He has cited the industry’s record profits and directed his administration to provide more support for investigations into antitrust violations and other unfair practices.

“As a standard matter of economics, if you have inelastic supply and experience a surge in demand, you will see a rise in prices,” said Phil Levy, the chief economist at Flexport, a logistics company."

The effect is expected to worsen in the coming months. Shipping rates typically take 12 to 18 months to fully pass through to consumer prices, said Nicholas Sly, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City."
 
Suppose food and energy prices double, but the housing market collapses.

Re-calculating to see if that would be enough to make it feasible for me to afford to stay in the Austin area....
 
Just got back from my biweekly trip to the Commissary. I buy perishables from my local Tom Thumb between commissary trips (milk, eggs, fruit, and so on), but I try to stock up on other things at the Commissary (cat food, paper goods, meats, and so forth). Last year my biweekly trips ran to about $220 - this trip was $360 for roughly the same shopping list. That's over 50% increase. That's what Joe has done for us. That 5.9% COLA didn't help very much when the groceries are up 50+%. It hurts to go to the grocery store - as well as to the gas station.
 

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