INFLATION--FED's cutting rates again...



Durable goods data shows a resilient economy.

Goods are dis-inflating. Services are not, especially labor. Services section inflation is stickier.

No rate cuts. Waiting, maybe for quite a while. Even a rate HIKE is a possibility, but probably no movement either way for quite some time.

Hold the line.
 
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With Inflation marching on worldwide, the Gold Bugs are back in force, this time led by big Chinese investors.

Per Josh Belanger at SubStack:

"Chinese Gold Rush

Chinese speculators are betting big on gold, pushing its price up. They're really influencing the gold market now.

Lots of gold is being traded in Shanghai. One company, Zhongcai Futures, bought gold worth almost $4 billion. This is changing how gold prices are set.

Gold prices hit a record high this month. More gold is being bought by banks in Asia and other places. They use it to keep their money safe.

Gold is more expensive because people are worried about money and wars. The price went up over 40% since last November. Now, it's at $2,431 per ounce. But it was a bit lower yesterday.

People in China are using gold to protect their money. They are moving away from real estate and stocks. This big interest in gold in Asia is new and important."


For free SubStack: Subscribe here
 
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When Gold surges, crypto sometimes goes with it (or you could lose your entire crypto investment--that's some dangerous ice to walk on, better talk with a qualified investment advisor before you make a move there.).
 
Inflation won't stop until the US government quits approving spending bills for millions and billions of dollars. Even though they send the money to Ukraine and Israel, that money comes back to military contractors and politicians. That money circulates in American over time and that puts upward pressure on prices.

You simply can't be for military intervention and for a healthy domestic economy. Government's financial and monetary policy has a large negative effect on prices, investment, capital accumulation.

You can either be for Americans or the power of the US federal government. The latter is a parasite on the former. I'm for America and Americans. Not the Deep State and their lackeys throughout the government.
 
Big boys are sticking with gold to hedge against inflation.

Billionaire Investor Ray Dalio Is Sticking With Gold As A Hedge Against Inflation: 'History And Logic Show That ...' - GraniteShares Gold Trust Shares of Beneficial Interest (ARCA:BAR), SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD) - Benzinga

Gold Steady as Traders Await Key Inflation Print for Rate Clues

Gold is still up about 17% since mid-February, supported by heightened geopolitical risk, central-bank purchases and a sharp uptick in buying by Chinese retail investors.
 
UTChE96 said:
Should have never even discussed rate cuts until inflation was under control.
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The Fed inflation models failed (both on the way up and on the way down). The Fed was speaking based on the model output. They probably should be more humble moving forward.
 
Fort Worth-area food bank faces food shortage as busy summer season looms

The food bank is in a bind: The number of people requesting help from the food bank and its partners remain above pandemic heights, even as donated food and funding are down.

Already, the food bank is giving each individual less food to stretch resources and serve more people, said CEO Julie Butner. As the organizations struggles, its roughly 500 local partner agencies that rely on the food bank to serve their communities are also feeling the pinch.

“We just had one of our partner agencies have to close the doors on their pantry because they can't afford to keep it open. They don't have enough food. They don't have enough money to buy the food. They've had to close it down,” Butner said.
 
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The point is that millions of what used to be ordinary working class folks are now down to relying on food banks to supplement their groceries, due in large part to inflation.

And the food banks can't keep up. Their customer base has surged to astronomical levels. And the food they buy and have donated now costs so much more due to inflation. They're not getting as much bang for the buck.
 
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/28/politics/social-security-inflation-election/index.html
Sun April 28, 2024

Social Security isn’t keeping up with inflation. That could weaken Biden’s support among some seniors.


c-gettyimages-1854095363.jpg
 
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Chop said:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/28/politics/social-security-inflation-election/index.html

Social Security isn’t keeping up with inflation. That could weaken Biden’s support among some seniors.


c-gettyimages-1854095363.jpg
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Not long ago, senior citizens got the two biggest annual increases in their monthly Social Security checks that most had ever seen. But for many of them, the adjustments still weren’t enough to cope with the runaway inflation of earlier this decade and the continued high prices for food, housing, utilities and other necessities.

That’s forcing more of them to spend their emergency savings, carry debt on credit cards or apply for assistance programs, according to The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan public education and advocacy group.

While inflation has afflicted Americans of every age, senior citizens are often in a more difficult predicament because many live off fixed incomes. Many depend heavily on Social Security – some 42% of elderly women and 37% of elderly men rely on the monthly payments for at least half their income, according to the Social Security Administration.

This squeeze could also politically influence some seniors, a key voting group, potentially weakening some of their support for President Joe Biden. Some polls have shown that Americans generally disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy compared with former President Donald Trump, his presumptive rival in November’s election who enjoyed much tamer inflation during his administration.

Inflation has eaten away at 36% of Social Security benefits’ buying power since 2000, according to an analysis last year from The Senior Citizens League.
 
Chop said:
Not long ago, senior citizens got the two biggest annual increases in their monthly Social Security checks that most had ever seen. But for many of them, the adjustments still weren’t enough to cope with the runaway inflation of earlier this decade and the continued high prices for food, housing, utilities and other necessities.

That’s forcing more of them to spend their emergency savings, carry debt on credit cards or apply for assistance programs, according to The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan public education and advocacy group.

While inflation has afflicted Americans of every age, senior citizens are often in a more difficult predicament because many live off fixed incomes. Many depend heavily on Social Security – some 42% of elderly women and 37% of elderly men rely on the monthly payments for at least half their income, according to the Social Security Administration.

This squeeze could also politically influence some seniors, a key voting group, potentially weakening some of their support for President Joe Biden. Some polls have shown that Americans generally disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy compared with former President Donald Trump, his presumptive rival in November’s election who enjoyed much tamer inflation during his administration.

Inflation has eaten away at 36% of Social Security benefits’ buying power since 2000, according to an analysis last year from The Senior Citizens League.
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A few on this board told us so. They weren't joking, Senior Citizens have been slammed hard by the inflation.
 
Inflation is from government spending that is not financed through taxes. This tells us that the US government keeps printing more money and handing it out to their themselves and their friends. Guess who isn't their friends? Those are suffering from inflation.

Solving the Social Security buying power issue will create even more inflation by the way, because they the government will try to do by cost of living increases, which will be unsupported by taxes.

The only way out of this is to let the Fed rate float in the market, greatly reduce government spending, and reducing the amount of $ in the world. If you don't do all 3 you aren't serious about the problem.
 
A large portion of the Social Security recipients' problems would be solved by lowering inflation, including inflation on groceries, housing, energy, and other essentials that are not counted on the most commonly-quoted inflation metric.
 
Chop said:
A large portion of the Social Security recipients' problems would be solved by lowering inflation, including inflation on groceries, housing, energy, and other essentials that are not counted on the most commonly-quoted inflation metric.
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That only happens if the things I mentioned are done.
 
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