AC
2,500+ Posts
Yahoo Finance……I rest my case. If your financial news comes from MSM you’re screwed.
INFLATION--FED announces 0.50% interest rate cut
- Thread starter Chop
- Start date
December data is in. Inflation slows to 6.5%. Prices in many segments are coming down.
Powell started too late with his rate hikes, but he may slow down to a 0.25% hike this time, or no rate hike at all… (probably another small rate hike or two)
Energy remains the wild card. Any shocks there could get inflation really going again.
Powell started too late with his rate hikes, but he may slow down to a 0.25% hike this time, or no rate hike at all… (probably another small rate hike or two)
Energy remains the wild card. Any shocks there could get inflation really going again.
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CPI is now 6.5% yoy. It will be 2.5% yoy by June. Thus, expect CPI to drop 0.7% points each month between Jan and June. The Fed doesn’t meet until late Jan/early Feb, meaning we won’t see Jan CPI figure in early Feb before the meeting. Fed may raise rates 0.25% points to signal the labor market to keep wage increases low. That is the only market that actually has price increases.
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Yeah, energy is the other big driver of inflation besides the Fed/int rates/money supply.
Good article with lots of graphs:
Here's the inflation breakdown for December 2022 — in one chart — CNBC
Here's the inflation breakdown for December 2022 — in one chart — CNBC
Good news! Bacon prices are deflating according to the latest inflation report: down 3.7% since last year.
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
Ackshoouhlly. Price inflation which everyone calls inflation is driven by money supply inflation, more money pursuing the same level of goods. The supply chain disruptions of 2020 also had a large effect because of how severe it was, but without governments literally shutting businesses down supply doesn't have that much of an effect. In fact the money supply inflation itself changes supply changes and value ratios. That means all these other prices don't effect "inflation", all the price changes across the board are brought to effect by money supply manipulation.
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
For anyone wanting to celebrate prices coming down. Let's hold off for now. Real wage rates still declining, people continue to lose buying power.
Some things are going in a positive direction and others are still negative. This is going to take a while and we need further Fed rate increases.
Real Wages Fall for the Twenty-First Month as Rent and Food Prices Keep Rising | Ryan McMaken
Some things are going in a positive direction and others are still negative. This is going to take a while and we need further Fed rate increases.
Real Wages Fall for the Twenty-First Month as Rent and Food Prices Keep Rising | Ryan McMaken
A significant percentage of the inflation has been “rents”. If you own a home and have a fixed mortgage, then this part of inflation is irrelevant to you. Same for air travel, etc. They really need to have an app where you can pick and choose a basket of things you typically buy to determine your personal inflation and whether or not it exceeds 3%, for example.
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
True. Good point.
AC
2,500+ Posts
Shadowstats.com
Shadow inflation goes by state. In Texas it’s 15% to 17%. CPI is not accurate. I’ve said this many times. I’ll go find my 2021 blog that went over this back then. Inflation will come back up due to ten days of storage left in the SPR. Oil is coming up and dragging everything up with it. Stop getting financial news from MSM! None of that is true!
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
Another money supply inflation is looming. The Fed is operating in the red now and will have to bail itself out at some point. Right now they are withholding payments to the Treasury. The Treasury will only let that go on for so long. Either the Fed with crumble and go away or they will print money to give to the Treasury and price inflation will go back up. That is independent of the interest rates too.
Why the Fed Is Bankrupt and Why That Means More Inflation | Ryan McMaken
Why the Fed Is Bankrupt and Why That Means More Inflation | Ryan McMaken
AC
2,500+ Posts
Saudi Arabia announced they will accept all currencies for Oil. That kills the petrodollar system! Long term, demand for dollars will drop off. BRICS reserve currency is going to announce their reserve currency this year sometime. There are over 20 countries including Iran and SA wanting to join BRICS. This dooms the US Dollar as global reserve currency. I give it 1 to 3 years! Deflation my ***! USD will hyperinflate at some point. This takes time, I’m not giving an ETA. McHammer can read CNBC till the cows come home. They won’t mention any of this!
It's still painful to watch grocery prices.
AC
2,500+ Posts
Then how well is Argentina’s economy doing? Turkey, Lebanon? All had strong economies, but their currency became worthless. Again, I study global macro economics. MSM has an agenda, it’s not to make the audience financially astute.
Real Consumption Rises as Inflation Decimates People in Joe Biden’s America
A rather opinionated comment from the link above:
Donald Van Anne 13 days ago edited
"The only thing that changed from January 2021 to 2023 is Joe Biden. Killing the supply side of crude oil was brain dead [Chop agrees with that statement], but so is Joe. Retail fuel prices almost tripped, and soon everything else did, from consumable goods to used cars to insurance. And dumb Joe is wondering why?
Before the rigged president, eggs were $2 a dozen, now they are $6. Before the fake president, my auto insurance was $500 now it is $900. Before the theif president, hotels were reasonabley priced now astronomical, even gym memberships have soared given their operating costs like heat and light and water have soared. Before five-man rally Joe, the stock market was 30 percent higher.
Fake president has ridden the Trump economy but the crest is falling. Democrap policies like those of the peanut farmer are in play. Soon, housing will be even more unaffordable with Carter-esque 20 percent interest rates."
A rather opinionated comment from the link above:
Donald Van Anne 13 days ago edited
"The only thing that changed from January 2021 to 2023 is Joe Biden. Killing the supply side of crude oil was brain dead [Chop agrees with that statement], but so is Joe. Retail fuel prices almost tripped, and soon everything else did, from consumable goods to used cars to insurance. And dumb Joe is wondering why?
Before the rigged president, eggs were $2 a dozen, now they are $6. Before the fake president, my auto insurance was $500 now it is $900. Before the theif president, hotels were reasonabley priced now astronomical, even gym memberships have soared given their operating costs like heat and light and water have soared. Before five-man rally Joe, the stock market was 30 percent higher.
Fake president has ridden the Trump economy but the crest is falling. Democrap policies like those of the peanut farmer are in play. Soon, housing will be even more unaffordable with Carter-esque 20 percent interest rates."
https://www.myhighplains.com/news/biden-uses-inflation-report-to-hit-gop-on-economy/
The president argued that his economic plan and Democratic legislation that included tax credits for certain environmentally friendly purchases, caps on insulin costs for seniors on Medicare and investments in manufacturing is paying off.
“These were all pieces of that big law that we passed last year,” Biden said, referring to the Inflation Reduction Act. “Now they’re kicking in and Americans are starting to feel the benefits.”
So, I guess they expect us to thank Joe B. now for all this ...
The president argued that his economic plan and Democratic legislation that included tax credits for certain environmentally friendly purchases, caps on insulin costs for seniors on Medicare and investments in manufacturing is paying off.
“These were all pieces of that big law that we passed last year,” Biden said, referring to the Inflation Reduction Act. “Now they’re kicking in and Americans are starting to feel the benefits.”
So, I guess they expect us to thank Joe B. now for all this ...
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
Let me see. Giving tax credits will just cause more demand so that INCREASES prices. Shifting purchases to environmentally friendly options also shifts prices higher than buying "normal" options. Also capping the cost of insulin for Medicare recipients just makes the price go up on everyone else like me. It shifts more inflation to younger people who already have more trouble dealing with it.
What investments in manufacturing? Not oil and gas! Not refineries! Not anything else I am seeing. Maybe military contract stuff and EVs. All things that won't benefit the average American. But it sure will make the elites more rich!
Well, duh!, for those that can do basic economic math. But what % of America does that now include?? American's have been so dumbed down by the MSM and wokeness around 75% can't even do a basic household budget. That's why there's these debt/credit counseling places now on every corner.
Plenty of "regular" people own bonds.
Forex is a bit more "exotic", of course.
There are many factors, but Biden has recently benefited from the lowering inflation caused, in large part, by the significant short-term drop in energy prices.
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