INFLATION--FED's cutting rates again...

[Musburger1]

Russia will now sell oil, gas, and other commodities to "unfriendly states" in Rubles.
So if Europe and/or the US continue to use loopholes to purchase Russian gas, they will first have to purchase Rubles which will pump up the Ruble and weaken the Euro and to a lesser degree the dollar. Hence, more inflation and price rises ahead.

 

[Horn2RunAgain]

Just got back from my biweekly trip to the Commissary. I buy perishables from my local Tom Thumb between commissary trips (milk, eggs, fruit, and so on), but I try to stock up on other things at the Commissary (cat food, paper goods, meats, and so forth). Last year my biweekly trips ran to about $220 - this trip was $360 for roughly the same shopping list. That's over 50% increase. That's what Joe has done for us. That 5.9% COLA didn't help very much when the groceries are up 50+%. It hurts to go to the grocery store - as well as to the gas station.

In all honesty 40 percent + is what I came up with last week over a 52 week period. I categorized all spending as a small business owner (chess)...including personal spending since it's easy to do on a spreadsheet. We don't eat THAT much meat, but in the past months it's gotten ridiculous

Our base spending over a year has been 42% higher than 52 weeks ago, all encompassing. That's insane. I wasn't concerned about inflation until after Christmas when I started to see higher spending on routine expenses. Now it's a real and valid concern.

Moving to east Texas next month is going to help (less driving) but still am concerned.

 

[mb227]

The increased costs of beef and other meats are part of what has me looking at acquiring a chest freezer to keep in the garage and fill with bulk purchases from a butcher shop/meat market.

 

[Chop]

I've seen a lot of these stickers on gas pumps recently:

 

[Chop]

 

[mb227]

I have figured out how to lower the cost of filling the tank when you have something costing $125 or so to fill nowadays.

If you can find someplace that has the old-school pumps, fill the tank. Doesn't even matter the posted price. When full, drive off.

IF you are stopped leaving the scene, comply with the police and accept your citation. And this is a big IF.

Your court date won't be for some months down the road.

When you go to court, take the deferred and pay some nominal fine.

That fine will very likely STILL be less than it cost to fill the tank



this is not meant to be taken seriously

 

[Musburger1]

The Democrats are coming up with some plans to fight inflation. God bless America.

Newsom Wants To Give $400 Debit Cards To California Car Owners Because Putin Invaded Ukraine | ZeroHedge

[URL="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/house-dems-want-stop-oil-inflation-creating-money-out-thin-air-offering-americans-direct"]House Dems Want To Stop Oil Inflation By Creating Money Out Of Thin Air, Offering Americans "Direct Payments" | ZeroHedge[/URL]

 

[Chop]

I’m all for Govt paid for free gas station debit cards/gift cards given out to all families equally. There is a certain segment of the Dem party that vehemently opposes this idea—which was proposed.

 

[Monahorns]

I’m all for Govt paid for free gas station debit cards/gift cards given out to all families equally. There is a certain segment of the Dem party that vehemently opposes this idea—which was proposed.

So you are for even more inflation?

 

[Chop]

So you are for even more inflation?

Nahhh.

Just lots of gas.

 

[HornHuskerDad]

The Democrats are coming up with some plans to fight inflation. God bless America.

Newsom Wants To Give $400 Debit Cards To California Car Owners Because Putin Invaded Ukraine | ZeroHedge
House Dems Want To Stop Oil Inflation By Creating Money Out Of Thin Air, Offering Americans "Direct Payments" | ZeroHedge

Oh, boy -more free stuff! That means more money chasing goods and services - sounds like the very definition of inflation. Just what we need.

 

[Monahorns]

Nahhh.

Just lots of gas.

There is gas available all over the world. It's just that governments and capital gatekeepers are restricting exploration and production.

All handing out money does is further increase inflation. Just be consistent.

 

[EDT]

 

[Chop]

Uh oh,

Here's a Stagflation data point:

US consumer sentiment fell again amid rising rates, war and inflation | CNN Business

"Consumer sentiment slumped again in March, hitting its lowest level since August 2011, the University of Michigan reported Friday."

Inflation: Top consumer issue, top policy challenge



“The self-perpetuating cycle acts to establish a self-fulfilling inflationary psychology,” he said. “Prevention of inflationary psychology is much less costly before it becomes ingrained in the economic behavior of consumers and firms. Confidence that economic policies can resolve the problem is essential. Unfortunately, half of all consumers unfavorably assessed current policies, more than three times the 16% who rated them favorably.”

"C'MON MAN..."

 

[Chop]

More wishful thinking:

The Fed Bets on a ‘Soft Landing,’ but Recession Risk Looms

"Central bankers have been clear that they will do what it takes to control inflation. They are betting on a soft landing, but a bumpy one is possible."

 

[Chop]

Big banks expect multiple big interest rate hikes:

BoFA, Citi expect multiple 50-bps Fed hikes this year as inflation bites

 

[theiioftx]

I've seen a lot of these stickers on gas pumps recently:

Ok I admit I have some of those stickers in my jeep.

 

[theiioftx]

30 year rates now over 5%. I challenged the local liberals to provide some stats or data where we are better off under Popcorn. It’s been days, so the list will be long.

 

[nashhorn]

I’d post those stickers if I had them.

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

They are easy to buy. I've seen like $8 for a hundred of them on Etsy.

I see them all over the place in San Marcos, Wimberley, and Lockhart. They have often been partially removed. Who knows if it was a liberal outraged by the truth or just an employee doing the removal, but you can always tell when the pump has been "woke" with one of those things!

 

[theiioftx]

I bought them on Amazon for $5.

 

[humahuma]

I bought them on Amazon for $5.

Are you applying them properly?

 

[Chop]

Ok I admit I have some of those stickers in my jeep.

Do you also keep any in your Subaru?

 

[Monahorns]

I heard a rule of thumb that to actually fight inflation the Fed rate has to be set above the inflation rate. So if we are at 7% inflation, the Fed won't truly be helping anything until they get the rate up to >7%. Not optimistic.

 

[Musburger1]

I heard a rule of thumb that to actually fight inflation the Fed rate has to be set above the inflation rate. So if we are at 7% inflation, the Fed won't truly be helping anything until they get the rate up to >7%. Not optimistic.

It’s much more complicated. No matter what the rates are, if supply of something remains nearly unavailable the price won’t come down.

 

[theiioftx]

Do you also keep any in your Subaru?

GuiltyIt’s an electric Forrester though.

 

[Monahorns]

It’s much more complicated. No matter what the rates are, if supply of something remains nearly unavailable the price won’t come down.

You are talking about a specific good. I am talking about economy wide.

Everything in economics is complicated. That doesn't mean there are general truths we can use to understand things.

 

[Musburger1]

You are talking about a specific good. I am talking about economy wide.

Everything in economics is complicated. That doesn't mean there are general truths we can use to understand things.

what higher interest rates will do is slow down lending, which shrinks the economy. Asset prices (stocks, bonds, real estate) will deflate. But commodities such as oil, food, and metals will not deflate because there simply isn’t enough of those things due to green policies, sanctions, port bottlenecks, worker strikes, and so forth. The Fed playing with rates won’t solve this one. Nor will a new round of stimulus checks.

 

[Monahorns]

what higher interest rates will do is slow down lending, which shrinks the economy. Asset prices (stocks, bonds, real estate) will deflate. But commodities such as oil, food, and metals will not deflate because there simply isn’t enough of those things due to green policies, sanctions, port bottlenecks, worker strikes, and so forth. The Fed playing with rates won’t solve this one. Nor will a new round of stimulus checks.

What I am talking about is backed up by data going back to the 1960s.

Raising rates will trigger a bust but that isn't the same as shrinking the economy. The dollar values we have today are way inflated, so it is more like a resetting to a more real level. It also ends malinvestments which are actually consuming capital. So the bust actually makes the economy more healthy and ready for real growth.

 

[Musburger1]

What I am talking about is backed up by data going back to the 1960s.

Raising rates will trigger a bust but that isn't the same as shrinking the economy. The dollar values we have today are way inflated, so it is more like a resetting to a more real level. It also ends malinvestments which are actually consuming capital. So the bust actually makes the economy more healthy and ready for real growth.

Ok. But a “bust” of the enormous bubbles means drastic reduction of GDP. And while that is deflationary, you aren’t going to get the growth which follows without energy and food. So you have a green agenda combined with food shortages and a drain on capital. The resetting at at a “more real level” is likely to be so low that we see massive chaos and upheaval. Or it seems like a strong possibility.