I think the republican's are toast

What you are seeing is RECORD turnouts for the Dems, and solid turnouts for the GOP. I posted this same theory quite a while back . For me it's a two pronged problem for the GOP. 1st is the likely candidate, McCain. How is McCain going to unify the GOP the way Bush did? Will there be a slew of Gay hate legislative propositions on the ballot to bring out the Huckabee voters around the country? Will McCain ever grab the hearts and minds of the Evangelicals? Does he pick Hucakbee as a running mate to try and secure this important GOP Demographic? I think if he tries to secure the Evangelicals with this political move he will lose a lot of his potential independent appeal.

I agree that Obama has the greater potential for a devestating vicotry for the Dems in that he has awakened something in this country that no politician has awakened in a long time. I think that Hillary is probably honestly the better prepared to deal with our countries problems, but that Obama can perhaps unite us all with a vision. Whether the vision lasts through the inevitable Bush cleanup program that is going to dominate the first few years of whoever is the next President remains to be seen.

Seeing the turnout numbers is a snapshot, and using old primary figures as evidence of anything when looking at these primary numbers is somewhat silly to me as we have not had this closely contested a primary season in a long time. What the figures show me is that there are a LOT of folks motivated on the Democratic side, and not so many on the GOP side.

I think McCain is going to have a VERY difficult time with his 100 years in Iraq statement in the General. mcCain is a good man, but the very qualities that make me like him are the same qualities that make social conservatives cringe. I just don't see how McCain can cobble together a united front from the currently fractured GOP camps AND bring in enough independents. IMO he's caught between a rock and a hard place. HOWEVER his refusal to deal with Rush and Dobson may ultimately work in his favor if those socail conservative leaders reverse course and embrace McCain. However at that point do the indepents start questioning thier thinking?

If it's Obama- McCain it's going to be a slaughter. The difference between young and old, past and future will be too stark for McCain to overcome IMO. Hillary is about the only hope the GOP has right now. Obama's fundraising is going to be mond boggling if he gets the nomination.
 
A view from the right: Not a single strong-feeling conservative or evangelical is going to sit the election out, no matter what they are saying now. Republicans will have high turnout, just like the Dems.

Also, Hillary is a stronger general election candidate than Obama, not weaker. Smart conservatives (Tropheus had it right) fear Hillary more than hate her, which is why we are pulling for Obama.

That said, Obama is perhaps the finest public speaker in a generation.
 
Unfortunately, McCain is just not going to be a unifying force for the Republicans. Clinton x 2 should be a very unifying force however. No Republican is going to want to go through that again. However, it could help us regain Congress.
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I think the biggest reason Republicans running for office are in trouble in '08 has to do with their steadfast willingness to go down with the Bush sinking ship. That united front cuts both ways when you combine unflagging support with ineptitude, corruption, and an endless bloody war.

Someone above suggested the GOP will net some seats in Congress this time around even if the WH is lost. I don't see that happening in Congress at all.

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If social conservatives are serious about the abortion issue, no matter the nominee, they should turn out in record numbers. This is the election they have been waiting for. Every Republican has committed to nominating Roberts/Alito type justices and with that, bye-bye Roe/Casey.

If that's what they really want, they will vote in mass numbers and McCain would be extremely wise to harp and harp and harp on this issue in the campaign in the parts of the country that are strongly evangelical and in play.
 
I will say again, if you think Republicans are going to sit this out then you are in for a BIG surprise.
Another thing to remember, Dems showed up for Kerry is RECORD numbers, numbers like we have never seen before. However, GWB got over 60 MILLION votes. Heck, Kerry had 55 million. I am not sure exactly where you think all these other votes are going to come from. No one was as passionate against Kerry as they would be against HRC or Obama.
 
Harder to defend an incumbent, and with the war and the economy (take your pick) people are motivated to vote. This does not bode well if you're the "home team".
 
I think people underestimate how well Obama would fair in a general election against McCain (it seems people keep underestimating Obama constantly)

I just cant see a pro Iraq type guy thats more of the same in many area's (with Bush being as unpopular as he is right now) beating Obama if he gets the nomination. The best chance the Reb have is against Hillary. Obama is just too popular, brings out too many people, and has far more resources than anyone
 
Wulaw,
That is assuming A LOT. There is no way all of that happens. New Mexico went blue in 2004, btw.
In fact, it is just as easy to say the opposite even though I don't think that is likely.

Sii,
You ARE overestimating Obama's appeal. Everyone is using kids gloves on him right now, but in the GE those will come off. Just because he is a great speaker does not mean everyone will line up behind him. His voting record in the senate will be a HUGE issue.
 
Democratic v Republican turn out is meaningless. In many counties, for instance mine, if you want to vote for the Mayor, District Judge, County Commissioer, you have to vote in the democratic primary.
 
I think a major factor in this election will be any third party candidates. If Bloomberg runs, all bets are off. Considering he was a lifelong dem, but ran repub for the NYC mayor position, it is unclear how his candidacy would impact the election now. You have to wait and see where he claims to stand on the issues to determine the base that will be most affected. Call it the Perot affect, hopefully for the other side of the aisle this time.

One thing I always find amusing are the polls where the choices are dem candidate X, or not Hillary. There is a very strong opposition to Hillary that I think would come into play if she wins the nomination. And I think she is the inevitable candidate. Too many crazy things happened to get Bill elected and keep him there and the Clintons are still connected.

Some posters also discount the potential prejudice against Obama or Hillary. I think that will also play a role in the election.
 
I don't think Bloomberg was ever serious about running, but even if he was, he certainly wouldn't do it now that McCain is the likely Republican nominee. His only purpose in running was to poke a stick in the eye of the so-called religious right and McCain's done a fine job of that all by himself.
 
The only hope for the R's is looking at the polling numbers Bush Sr had at this point in the election. Sr was at like 80% approvals. That went south quickly with the economy, etc turning. So what looks sure now may not be in November. Either way. Obama's weakness (if any) won't be racial, it will be nerveousness about his inexperience.
 
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