How many Big XII teams get in?

While I don't see Clemente going off on us like he did in the Drum, I think Kansas State will be lying in wait for us to make a point to the selection committee. Thus, my preference is to see Texas lose to Colorado and slide to an 11 seed!
 
A couple of weeks ago, I posted that we might have a play-in game with KSU during the Big 12 championship. It might actually play out that way.

If Aggies pull off the upset against MU and we end up with 3 teams at 9-7 (UT, KSU, A&M), how do they decide the seeding for the Big 12 tourney?

Seems strange, but it might actually be better to be seeded #6 because the #4-#5 game might be viewed as a play-in game. While a #6 loss to the #3 seed might be more foregivable.
 
Apparently ties among divisional opponents is done first. Texas has the best south division record. A&M and OSU are the same. A&M would be over OSU as long as they beat MU since that would be the best win between the two. KSU finished ahead of UT due to head-to-head.
 
Jeff, I think you made some good points, but it does bother me that teams can make an NCAA case on the basis of not having screwed up.

I don't think the RPI is an effective tool to judge individual teams. If I'm forced to rank, I'd probably consider it along with Sagarin, Pomeroy, etc., and see if any particular number stands out.

But the overarching point is that teams are evaluated against other teams, so the n-c schedules are going to be picked apart. I don't think OSU stands up well when it hasn't beaten any n-c teams that are going to make the field as an at-large.

Having said that, I think if they do get in, they'll have "earned" it.
 
I agree that the selection committee should look at teams, not conferences, so I wasn't very artful in my comment about SEC or Pac 10 "deserving" a 5th team.

That said, Florida and Kentucky are trying most hard to prove themselves unworthy, Florida by losing 3 straight (though against good competition), and Kentucky by gacking it at home against Georgia last night. Florida may still be OK with a win over Kentucky Saturday, but Kentucky may be dead already.
 
And now the Big East is probably down to 7 teams, thanks to Providence getting smashed by Villanova tonight. Providence has 10 conference wins, but only 2 are against teams with winning records in the conference.
 
A&M punched their ticket today. Kentucky is out unless they win the SEC tourney. No idea what will happen to OSU and KSU
 
if you are talking about Auburn, haha no. They beat Virginia for their best non-con win. They lost at home to Mercer. I mean, you see 20 wins and 10 SEC wins and think that looks like a tourney team, but their resume is NOT good.

Right now Big XII has 6 teams in. OSU needs to beat ISU to stay in. The other 5 are in no matter what. KSU probably needs to beat Texas and Kansas to get in. This is what happens when you schedule PUTRID non-con scheds, then lose to some of those putrid teams.
 
well, I agree that Auburn has a decent shot at winning the SEC tourney. That's probably what they need to get in. The problem is, there are just no marquee wins available in the SEC this year. The only team that 1) scheduled some good teams and 2) beat them, was Arkie and they went totally in the tank. South Carolina has beaten ZERO teams in the top 50 in the RPI for the season.

SEC leader LSU played 4 OOC games that weren't marshmallows. 3 of the 4 ended in double digit beatdowns for LSU, by 11 vs aggy, by THIRTY at Utah (who OU smoked), and by 10 at home to a good but not great Xavier team. Their best OOC win is #87 Washington State in Baton Rouge.

Let's look at the other SEC OOC schedules, I will list wins vs Top 100 and losses outside the top 100:

Auburn: L at home to #181 Mercer, ZERO OOC wins vs top 100. PS home win vs #181 tiny school is way worse than road loss to #139, even discounting the fact that the team obviously hit a wall somewhere as they went 12-1 before collapsing.

Alabama: L at home to #181 Mercer. L by 23 neutral site to #168 Oregon. ZERO Top 100 wins.

Arkansas: L at #212 Missouri State. They do have wins over #4 Oklahoma and #36 Texas, as well as #84 SFAustin, all at home.

Florida: Beat #99 Bradley (just under the gun, LOL). Beat #12 Washington at neutral site. Beat #100 NCState at home. No bad losses OOC.

Georgia: L by 21 neutral to #215 Loyola (IL). L to #136 A&M-Corpus Christi. L to #156 Georgia Tech. Did manage a 1 point home win over #59 Va Tech.

Kentucky: L at home to #124 VMI. W vs #77 K-State, neutral site.

LSU: as mentioned above, no bad L's, one top 100 win.

Mississippi: L by 19 to #163 S. Miss. Zero top 100 wins.

Miss State: Beat #98 Houston and #53 Western Kentucky, both at home. L neutral site to #129 Texas Tech. L at home to #203 Charlotte and #191 San Diego.

S. Carolina: Only top 100 OOC win by 1 at #75 Baylor. L to #110 College of Charleston.

Tennessee: Neutral wins over #24 Siena and #47 G'town. Semi-home win over #30 Marquette. No sub-100 losses.

Vanderbilt: W-neutral over #62 VCU. 19 point home L to #169 UIC, 12 point L to #156 Ga Tech.


So to sum up, as a conference, they have 16 wins OOC vs Top 100 competition. 1 of those 16 was on the road, vs #75 Baylor. They beat #98, 99 and 100. As a conference, they have beaten 4 OOC teams that will get in as an at large (OU, UT, Washington, Marquette), and three others that are out right now, but are on the fringe of the bubble (Siena, K-State, Va Tech).

They have 15 losses to sub-100 teams, 6 of these at home.

If you listed these 12 resumes without team or conference, you would think this was the Missouri Valley, CAA or some other similar conference, and would expect 2-3 bids, barring an outsider winning the conf tourney.

Let's compare to the Big XII:

Baylor: No bad losses. Beat #71 Providence neutral site by 16. Beat #31 Arizona State neutral. Won at #87 Wash St.

Colorado: The albatross. No good wins. Home Ls to #158 TCU and #229 Montana St, neutral L to #108 Buffalo, road L to #105 Stanford.

Iowa St: Road wins at #98 Houston and #67 Northern Iowa. Bad Ls on road at #111 Iowa, neutral #225 Hawaii, home to #165 Drale and #282 S Dakota St

Kansas: Semi-home L to #138 UMass. N win over #12 Washington, home wins over #40 Temple, #17 Tennessee, #24 Siena.

Kansas St: Neutral L to #111 Iowa and road L to #168 Oregon. Win at #66 Cleveland State.

Missouri: No bad losses. Neutral wins over #96 Fairfield and #58 USC. 27 point home win over #34 Cal.

Oklahoma: Loss at #139 Arkie. Neutral wins over #43 UAB, #32 Purdue, #59 Tulsa, #62 VCU. Home wins over #78 American (by 29), #68 Davidson, #58 USC, #10 Utah (by 19).

Oklahoma St: No bad losses. Beat #59 Tulsa at home, and #24 Siena and #63 Rhode Island neutral. Also had a 30 point home win over Mercer.
smile.gif


Texas: L at #139 Arkie. Home win over #28 UCLA. Neutral win over #12 Villanova. Road win over #33 Wisky.

Texas A&M: No bad losses. Home wins over #84 SF Austin and #51 Arizona. Neutral win over #37 and SEC top dog LSU.

Texas Tech: Road losses at #209 Lamar and #105 Stanford. Home loss to #158 TCU. Neutral win over #83 Miss State. Home wins over #57 New Mexico and #84 SF Austin.

So, the Big 12 has 33 top 100 OOC wins, as compared to 16 for the SEC. Of those, 9 are over at-large locks (Arizona St, Washington, Tennessee, Cal, Purdue, Utah, UCLA, Villanova, LSU), vs 4 for the SEC. Another 11 are over teams in NCAA contention. 20 wins versus OOC potential at large for Big XII, 7 for SEC. 5 of these are road games, vs 1 for SEC.

16 sub-100 losses, one more than the SEC has. 5 at home, vs 6 for SEC.

Again, the SEC's scheduling is embarassing, and they truly deserve 2-3 bids this season.
 
Ark "hit a wall" b/c they started playing teams that were a lot better than they are. The tourney isn't about getting the 65 toughest schedules together; it's about getting the 65 best teams.

A one off loss to a random is bad, but everybody has a bad night. When the worst team in a league beats two of the top 5 in another, it's hard to argue that the latter deserves twice as many bids as the former.
 
Look for a team that otherwise wouldn't make the tourney to somehow miraculously win their conference's tourny and automatic bid, thereby giving their conference more $. Seen it happen too many times. These conference tournys are a scam of the highest order.
 
YeaTexasFight - my bad, I must have it the go to last page button and missed your post on tie breakers (and was too lazy to figure it out myself).

Anyways, I do think it put UT in a precarious position. We definitely need to be CU. And for good measure, I think we need to beat KSU to prove we are more worthy. I'd like to think we'd get the nod regardless, but KSU beating us on the road and neutral court is compelling.
 
Laph,

so are you saying teams like Bama, Miss State and Miss are better than Texas and OU? OR were the Texas and OU losses fluke losses to a team with some overall talent but no concept of team?

The numbers clearly speak for themselves. I didn't give you just SOS, but actual WINS over good teams.

You talk about the 'best' teams, which is what KenPom's ratings try to sort out. They have 6 Big XII teams ranked before you get to the highest SEC team, LSU, ranked 43rd. What evidence do we have that LSU should be ranked any higher than that?

As long as the SEC continues to schedule the bottom half of D-I for their OOC, and continues losing to them, they aren't gonna get respect on Selection Sunday.
 
Jeff, don't get your dander up. I think the Cowboys are in great shape, I think the spot is locked up with a win over ISU, which shouldn't be an issue. You guys acquited yourself nicely in Norman as did the Longhorns in Phog Allen. I still think in the end, it'll be Kansas State that ends up cursing the committee, and I think that'll be a result of Texas beating them in our rematch. The rest of us 9-7's will all be in. Don't fret.
 
The room for bubble teams was reduced by 1 last night as Cleveland State beat Butler for the Horizon automatic bid, and Butler is a lock.

Weber State isn't getting in as an at-large, so their loss in the Big Sky tournament doesn't change the numbers.

Meanwhile, 2 of the Big East outside looking in types lost miserably in the first round of that conference tournament. Georgetown, touted all year as a dangerous team for the tournament, despite its record, lost for the second straight time against St. John's. Cincinnati managed to lose to 0-18 Depaul. ND and Providence remain as the only Big East teams that might force their way into the tournament.

Davidson probably didn't do enough to merit an at large bid, so the Southern conference is stuck with Chattannoga.

Creighton has an rpi of 40, so the MVC might get two teams.

Niagara couldn't knock off Sienna, so that's just one team.

In general, the smaller conferences didn't upset the tournament brackets much, putting in only an additional two teams so far.

KSU finally has an OOC win against a tournament team, thanks to Cleveland State winning the Horizon, but they can't feel good about another spot being filled.
 
Jeff, I'm not a big fan of the RPI, and it's pretty clear at this point that people don't make or miss the field based on RPI alone.

The deal with Siena is that they are 25th in the RPI but 58th in Sagarin and 65th in Pomeroy. Somebody's numbers are off.

Ok State will get credit for beating a top-25 team. That alone is not enough, as Georgetown surely is going to be able to tell you come Sunday.
 
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