How many Big XII teams get in?

Vol Horn 4 Life

Vol Horn 4 Life

Good Bye To All The Rest!
I think six teams will get in. These are records as of today, but RPI rankings are not as current. I think today's games are not included.

Kansas St. 8-6 20-9 RPI 76, OSU, Colorado
Oklahoma St. 8-6 19-9 RPI 34, KSU, Oklahoma
Texas 8-6 19-9 RPI 38, Baylor, KU
Texas A&M 7-7 21-8 RPI 35, Colorado, Mizzou

Unless something really weird happens it looks like OSU, Texas and Aggy are in with KSU looking in from the outside.

The only question would be KSU with a potential 9-7 conference record being left out behind Aggy with an 8-8 record but a much better RPI. KSU would also have beaten both Texas and Aggy with the OSU game still to come.

Then again, if KSU somehow wins out would they get in too and/or one of the other three get left out? Still the conference tourney is not considered.
 
Texas is in if they beat Baylor. Okie State is in if they win next two vs. KSU and OU. A&M is in if they beat CU and MU. KSU has to win ten and one game in the Big 12 tournament, with that rpi.

I expect Texas to beat BU and lose to KU = 9-7.
OSU to beat beat KSU and lose to OU = 9-7.
KSU to lose to OSU and beat CU = 9-7.
A&M to beat CU and lose to MU = 8-8.

If so Texas is in. OSU wins 1 maybe 2 in tournament and are in. KSU has to win 3 in tourney to get in. A&M has to win 2-3 in tourney to get in.
 
a&m needs to win one of their final two regular season games and one tourney game to get in.....
 
We took care of what we could tonight beating Baylor.

Kansas St. 8-6 20-9 RPI 73, OSU, Colorado
Oklahoma St. 8-6 19-9 RPI 31, KSU, Oklahoma
Texas 9-6 20-9 RPI 40 (should move up), KU
Texas A&M 7-7 21-8 RPI 34, Colorado, Mizzou

According to ESPN tonight 11 of 13 Big XII teams all time have made the tourney with a conference record of 9-7. Also according to ESPN the Big XII gets 5.1 teams per year.

Colorado could be a huge spoiler for someone.

My projected final conference records:

KSU 9-7
OSU 9-7
Texas 9-7
Aggy 8-8

If the Big XII only gets 5 teams in as history predicts which two teams get left out? Even if we get 6 teams in who will get left out? The conference tourney will be the hair splitter.
 
KSU and A&M would be the teams left out in your scenario.

Texas is in now. I'm not terribly concerned about the rest of the league, although it's nice to speculate about it without any worries regarding the team I root for.
 
I'd love to take credit for this scenario, but it is what it is. If ESPN reporting is correct this is not something made up which means all four teams are in a dog fight for two or three spots.

I think we are in with our reputation considering all other stats are virtually equal except for KSU's RPI.
 
Starting to shape up as us being the 5 seed in the Big 12 tourney playing CU in round 1 with K-State in round 2.

At least that's what it would be under the most common scenario of the following (or even under a scenario with A&M also getting to 9-7):
K-State 9-7 (win vs. CU, loss at OSU)
Texas 9-7 (loss at KU)
OK State 9-7 (win vs. K-State, loss at ou)
Texas A&M 8-8 (win at CU, loss vs. Mizzou)

By my count, we would win any tiebreaker involving A&M and/or OSU, but would be the runner up in any tiebreaker involving K-State. So assuming we don't pull an upset in Lawrence, we'll be hard pressed to have a better record than K-State unless CU can pull an upset in Manhattan on the last day of the regular season.
 
YeaTexasFight,
That is exactly the way I see it playing out as well. I think Texas will be the 5th seed with KSU waiting in the second round. I see us getting to the conference tourney semi-finals and then punting versus KU. That will get us a 8/9 seed in the Dance. A loss to KSU (or even CU) might be better. It might get us a 10/11 seed. Good enough year for this collection of Horns for sure!
 
With OSU, KSU, and A&M all having arguments for spots in the NCAA tournament (though I admit KSU's claim is pretty weak at this point), Texas can't afford a first round loss to CU in the Big 12 tournament.
 
The 2005 team had a similar stretch run, including a first-round bomb against Colorado in the B12 tournament, and got an eight seed. Nobody has them even close to the bubble.
 
I fully agree with you Bob. Texas, having gotten to 9 wins, now has it's Dance card punched, even should we go 0-2 from here on out. In fact, I think losing out would actually be the best scenario for Texas as that would likely get us an 11 seed in the Big Dance and make a Sweet Sixteen birth at least theoretically possible. This team has accomplished all I've ever wanted from it. Well done Horns!!!! The streak continues for another year. I expect next year will be a nail biter again with respect to the NCAA, unless those freshman shooters are ready akin to a Willie Warren or a Kevin Durant. I'm not sure what kind of shot Jai Lucas possesses. But that is for another day. We are in this year!!!!!!
cool.gif
 
Yes, but the 04-05 CU team was quite a bit better, and the 04-05 Texas team closed the regular season with a huge upset of OSU in Stillwater, and the Big 12 was better as a whole, and there weren't 12 gazillion teams from the Big East trying to get in.

I just don't think Texas is guaranteed to get in if it goes 0-2 from here on. I think it's likely to get in; I just don't think it's automatic.
 
Well, this team beat OU. I think they'll show up at KU. But if they don't and lose the next two, they still have six wins against the RPI top 50.

They can't fall that far that fast.
 
I really think, 9 wins and you are in.

So I think OSU is on the outside. I see them losing to KSU & OU. 8-8
I see Aggy losing to Mizzou. 8-8

KSU & TX are in. Mizzou, KU & OU are no brainers.

5 in.

OSU & TX is OSU wins against KSU. I really think the KSU / OSU game is for the final spot.
 
Have you seen KSU's RPI, non-conference schedule, top 50 and top 100 wins? Throw in a couple of bad losses and they are far from a lock even at 10-6.
 
Looking at the potential tournament field, I find the following reason to say there is still at least a small concern about missing the tournament in the event of an 0-2 finish with losses to KU and CU.

22 one team conferences (if conference has asterisk, then I include a team in parenthesis that is probably in regardless of winning conference tournament):

Am. East, Mid-Am, MEAC, MVC, NE, OVC, BSky, BSouth, Pat, BWest, Southland, Col. Ath, C-USA* (Memphis), SWAC, Summit, SunBelt, Horizon* (Butler), Ivy, WAC* (Utah State), WCC* (Gonzaga), MAAC* (Sienna), Southern.

I will concede that Sienna and Utah State might be a slight reach as automatic bids.

8 Big East (everbody with a winning record, with poss. exception of Providence, but GU has a great rpi, so who knows)
6 ACC (I think BC is in)
5 Big 12 (for purposes of the argument)
5 Big 10 (MSU, Ill, Purdue for sure, Wisc. and Minn. prob., with OSU and PSU poss.)
4 SEC (LSU, SC, Tenn. with UK/UF playing for slot 4. SEC might get 5)
4 Pac 10 (Arizona with a shot to make 5)
2 A-Ten (Temple with outside shot to make 3)
2 MWC

That's another 36 for 58 total, leaving 7 spots that could get eaten by conference tournament upsets and things playing out in the power conferences that increase their numbers at the expense of a 6th team from the Big 12.

Granted, some of the things I have stated here are far less than certain. For example, if Utah State or Sienna were to fail to win conference tourneys, they aren't absolutely locks to get in, and the A-10 could get screwed again by denying Dayton. Also, the SEC and the Pac 10 might not merit 5 teams, but there is at least the argument those conferences deserve a 5th before the Big 12 gets a 6th.

While I think Texas deserves to be in at this point, there are still too many things to play out to say it's a lock.
 
I don't think I'd use the word "lock" either. But I would say the possibility of missing, after last night's win, is extremely remote.
 
It is indeed a LOCK. Texas will win against CU anyway and very likely KSU imho, so this discussion is likely moot in my view. But the only thing that can possibly upset the apple cart is an injury to a key player such as AJ, Damion, etc, coupled with a two losses. Otherwise, it is a fait accompli. Last night's game was a play-off for Texas although only 9,000 folks in Austin seemed to know it. Had we lost to Baylor we would be out without a win at KU. Now, we are in unless something really unfortunate happens to one of our guys. By-the-way, can someone post the tie breakers for seeding in the Big 12 tourney?
 
The KSU loss today all but eliminated them from the tourney. Their RPI is liable to drop to around 80 which means they'll have to win the Big XII tourney.

If OSU currently at 32 will move into the 20's with the win today and should be a lock. A loss to OU will not hurt their ranking much and a win would be a seeding feather in their cap.

Texas moved from 40 to 36 with the win over BU last night. Unless we somehow upset KU I think we still need to win one in the conf tourney to be considered a lock.

Aggy is sitting at 34 in RPI and needs at least a split with CU and MU to get in. They may need one in conf tourney too.

It's gonna be a close one folks. Unless we get six teams in someone is gonna call screw job.
 
RPI has not been a decision-making factor, as in, "We'll take No. 33, but not No. 34." It's used primarily as a way to divide teams to determine schedule strength.
 
I'm just amazed it looks like OSU will get in. Please tell me what their signature win is. And don't list Texas - a home win versus the Horns should be no big-time resume builder. So that leaves their best win as beating Siena on a neutral floor? That shouldn't be good enough, either. I understand OSU has won six straight and they're 9-6 in the Big XII, but they haven't beaten diddly-poo. I'd love to be the 5 or 6 seed that draws them.

However, I guess we should give OSU credit for not being like Georgetown and Cincinnati today and lose crucial games to bad teams, but OSU still doesn't smell like an NCAA team at all. To me they're proof why 65 teams in the tourney is too many.
 
Should we lose a 2nd time to Kansas State, this time on a "neutral" floor, how the heck can the committee leave the Wildcats out? Although I predict Aggy beats Mizzu, I am hoping that Mizzu plays hard and beats Aggy to clean up the messy situation ahead in the Big 12 lower tier teams...... Texas also could have beaten teams at home to clean up this mess!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Weekly Prediction Contest

* Predict HORNS-AGGIES *
Sat, Nov 30 • 6:30 PM on ABC

Recent Threads

Prediction Results Threads

2024 Schedules

Back
Top