Horns vs Nevada: Who wins and why

caryhorn

caryhorn

5,000+ Posts
I think Nevada will be a tough match up. They are high scoring, averaging 83 per game. But the real issue about that is how they score. They shoot the three at 40%. They are very comfortable sitting at the arc and jacking it up. Which means Mo, Sims, and O being big down low, with two of the three being shot blockers, really won't help us defend them that much.

Nevada isn't going to depend on in the paint scoring. Roach, Coleman, Young, and Febres will have their hands full playing defense at the arc. Coleman has to stay out of foul trouble.

The upside is we should be able to have our way inside. We should be able to feed our big three all night long. That is, if we can play disciplined offense and not go brain dead and start jacking up long jumpers.

I'm really rooting for the good guys. And this group, and the coach, are genuinely good guys.

This is going to be a very close game (what's new) and I am afraid our tendency to play undisciplined, go to the three point shot needlessly, will be our downfall.

I wouldn't put any money on the Horns to win. Please Horns, bring me a nice slice of crow Saturday morning for breakfast.
 
We hit the million threes we jack up = we win.
We do not hit the million threes we jack up = we lose.

Do we hit the threes or not? I have no idea.
 
Nevada is 0-2 vs Big 12 teams this season, although the games very pretty close.
Dec 5 (Tue) at Texas Tech University L, 76-82 OT
Dec 8 (Fri) vs No. 20 TCU L, 80-84
 
This is clearly a winnable game, and I suspect the defense that we play will be as good as they have seen all year (assuming we're dialed in and focused.)
 
ProdigalHorn said:
This is clearly a winnable game, and I suspect the defense that we play will be as good as they have seen all year (assuming we're dialed in and focused.)
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That is a mighty big IF...after all, this squad seems to excel at being inconsistent on the days that end in a Y. And I believe the game is being played on one of those days...
 
BabHorn said:
Nevada is 0-2 vs Big 12 teams this season, although the games very pretty close.
Dec 5 (Tue) at Texas Tech University L, 76-82 OT
Dec 8 (Fri) vs No. 20 TCU L, 80-84
Click to expand...
Yep, this entrenches my view that its a tossup. We lost to both of those teams too. and beat both of those teams.
ProdigalHorn said:
This is clearly a winnable game, and I suspect the defense that we play will be as good as they have seen all year (assuming we're dialed in and focused.)
Click to expand...
It is definitely a winnable game.
mb227 said:
That is a mighty big IF...after all, this squad seems to excel at being inconsistent on the days that end in a Y. And I believe the game is being played on one of those days...
Click to expand...
LOL. And it is definitely a lose-able game.
 
As much as I hate to say this, I have Nevada winning in both of my brackets. Musselman is a solid coach with a ton of HC experience including NBA level. If it's a complete push, I'm defaulting to coach quality and Nevada has the angle there. He's really good at getting everything out of his players every game.

Wolf Pack's primary rotation features mostly Juniors and Seniors with good chemistry. They're small in the post but they have big guards and they're just a well balanced basketball team that seems to get it done on offense - they can score from anywhere and they're going to get to the free throw line.

I'm afraid it's going to be a hard fought battle and is going to come down to 1) coaching/scheme 2) free throws at the end; which are not our strengths.

I guess since Bamba is healthy now he's going to be back in the starting line up and will get 30+ mins. Which is not the best lineup for us. IMO.

But what do I know. I really hope I'm wrong.
 
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Defend the threes...and I mean REALLY defend the 3s, light a fire under Snowbirdkowski but keep him away from the 3-point line if he’s missing 80% (which he usually does), and we might have a decent chance. I would also start and feature Young until we are convinced that he doesn’t have the magic. I love his energy.
 
If it helps I've recorded and watched every minute of every show on ESPN and all the rest and a lot of the talking heads like us in this game and call us a potential bracket buster. I don't agree but there it is.
 
ProdigalHorn said:
This is clearly a winnable game, and I suspect the defense that we play will be as good as they have seen all year (assuming we're dialed in and focused.)
Click to expand...

This! This season Texas has played to the level of its competition. We have played Tech, Gonzaga, Duke and other good teams well. We have also nearly lost to Tennessee State and Iowa State.

If our best team shows up, we win by 10+. I like this match-up for us. Shaka just needs to have the team ready to play at game time.
 
From Osetkowsky on pratice:

"“About 30 minutes ago I had a wide-open three in practice. Coach Smart blows the whistle. “D.O. That’s not a good shot!” I’m looking at him like, ‘What are you talking about? I’ve been shooting these all season.’ ‘We want to get in the paint! We want to get in the paint!’"

:yikes::yippee::yippee::yippee::yippee::bow::bow::bow::fiestanana::fiestanana::fiestanana:
 
ProdigalHorn said:
From Osetkowsky on pratice:

"“About 30 minutes ago I had a wide-open three in practice. Coach Smart blows the whistle. “D.O. That’s not a good shot!” I’m looking at him like, ‘What are you talking about? I’ve been shooting these all season.’ ‘We want to get in the paint! We want to get in the paint!’"
Click to expand...
This ^^^sounds like the first time O has heard it all season. Wouldn't one think Smart has been yelling that instruction all season? Yeah, maybe not. Oh well, we shall see tomorrow.
 
Htown77 said:
We hit the million threes we jack up = we win.
We do not hit the million threes we jack up = we lose.

Do we hit the threes or not? I have no idea.
Click to expand...


This was going to be my post in a nutshell. Since we are literally one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country and Shaka hasn't figured out how to utilize our decidedly large size advantage I'm going to say we whiff today.
 
caryhorn said:
This ^^^sounds like the first time O has heard it all season. Wouldn't one think Smart has been yelling that instruction all season? Yeah, maybe not. Oh well, we shall see tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Well, at least he's coaching for what I firmly believe is the right approach to this game. We'll never keep up with Nevada in a run and gun three point contest. We have to control the game tempo and work our bigs down low in a very deliberate manner.
 
ProdigalHorn said:
From Osetkowsky on pratice:

"“About 30 minutes ago I had a wide-open three in practice. Coach Smart blows the whistle. “D.O. That’s not a good shot!” I’m looking at him like, ‘What are you talking about? I’ve been shooting these all season.’ ‘We want to get in the paint! We want to get in the paint!’"
Click to expand...

Is this for real? If it is, it's very troubling...and telling. I can't say I'm surprised.
 
Htown77 said:
We hit the million threes we jack up = we win.
We do not hit the million threes we jack up = we lose.

Do we hit the threes or not? I have no idea.
Click to expand...
Yup. Nevada scores ~70. Texas hits the three's and will win by 10 or so. Texas misses the three's and loses by 10 or so.
 
This Nevada team is tiny, yet 3 of our first 4 shots were 3s. JUST GO INSIDE EVERY TIME AND WE CAN WIN THIS HANDILY!!!!!!
 
Right before the break, Nev scores on an uncontested layup where the guy drives to the hoop from the arc, and was fouled. Bamba was at the FT line guarding no one. He was suckered out there and did not even see the scorer head to the hoop. He has got to be smarter.
There should be no, nada, none uncontested layups at this stage.
 
Does the Nevada big man shoot a high percentage fro 15-19 ft? I truly don’t know, but Bamba should not be more than five feet from the basket on d unless his man has the ball.
 
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