Gustav - NOLA possibly in the sights again

T

The Big Unit

100+ Posts
I sure hope this thing weakens or turns. Some models are predicting this thing could blow up into a Cat 4 or 5 due to the warm loop current that is present in the Gulf. Last time I posted a similar message was late August '05. Within a few days my wife's family had moved in and were not able to return home for 2 months. I don't see how NOLA could stand up to another blow like this..

Update 8/30 - this is Deja Vu. Family is going to watch and wait one more day. If things continue to worsen they'll be Austin bound.

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How good of shape is NOLA actually in these days? I haven't heard much about it in a while. While it will obviously take a lifetime to fully recover from the damage of Katrina, still, it's been 3 years, so you would think there has been enough work done to at least return to some level of normalcy. Has there been any progress on the levies and such that catastrophically failed in the first place? Are they back to a point where they could ride out at least a Cat 1 or 2 storm?
 
I am sorry your wife's family lost so much in Katrina.

But, I am going to play the ******* in this thread.

Most of the city of New Orleans was built below sea level in one of the most hurricane prone areas of the world short of the Carribean.

If another large storm hits, it might finally signal the end of New Orleans as anything other than a small hamlet.

I understand its a big city, loved by many and the home for hundreds of thousands, but if the city cant be protected for a reasonable cost, its time to cut bait and run.

The Corps of Engineers screwed the pooch once, thats on them, but they are "rebuilding" bigger and stronger and correctly now, but if those fail then we need to admit that people arent meant to live in below sea level marshland in a hurricane zone.
 
I understand people's reservations about the feasibility of NOLA being a major poplulation center in such a risk prone area. The problem is alot of people have called it home for close to 300 years. It's hard to convince an entire community the size of NOLA to abandon an entire region they've call home their entire lives. But I agree - IF another Katrina like event happens it might be time to throw in the towel.
 
i'll play the ******* too... but i wouldn't want a good portion of them moving to my city. lot of great and talented folks come from new orleans, and they're more than welcome. bring the food, the party, the music, and the culture... but leave the dirty asses with no ambition or will.
 
Somebody has to live there to work for the largest port in the United States. Like it or not, a massive port at the mouth of the Mississippi is necessary, and a port of that size is going to need a city to support it.
 
I'm not having this debate, not now, 3 years after Katrina and as Gustav is bearing down. I'll just say that I'm sad and pity some of you.
 
KCHorn et al.
While I agree with your point and I think that local, state & federal officials should have done more to protect New Orleans, are you going to have the same lack of sympathy when a catastrophic earthquake hits the Pacific Northwest, or California, or the Mid West? There are millions of Americans living in places that will receive far more devasting blows than Katrina.

If we want to point a finger, point it at ourselves.

Our officials make poor choices for us because we're too busy or indifferent to speak out and say, "Build that building to withstand 160mph winds or a 8.0 earthquake." Additionally, we live in a country where most of us want the government to do as little as possible, which precludes them from preventing people from living in danger zones.
 
The entire city population does not support the port nor work there. You could establish communties or towns to support the ports that would be much easier to protect and evacuate if needed. The tragedy that happened can easily be avoided by not having such a major city in that location. The mayor, the state government and such are very crooked and corrupt. The city is corrupt. It is how things are. We saw first hand what happens because of it too. That was sad, horrific and a damned shame.

I hope we never, ever have to find out if the new levee's and systems are sufficient. I hope they never get a storm of size of ferocity again. I would rather not know than know in this situation.
 
First of all, if I had my druthers, I would prefer that Gustav fizzle and die in the middle of the Gulf. But it won't. It's going to hit somebody. It would be terrible news for New Orleans if that were to happen.

Hasn't the Mississippi been trying to change course into the Atchafalaya swamp for quite a long time now, anyway? Maybe it is just time to let nature take its course, and relocate New Orleans to someplace above sea level.
 
actually NOLA, right now is the perfect time to have this debate.

I loved New Orleans when we went there in 2003. I understand the love for the city.

But its a flawed design.

Its in a super low lying area that is in an area thats expected to get hit by a Cat 3 storm once every 50 years.

Which means that every year there is a 2% chance that the city might not make it.

California can rebuild with tougher, stronger buildings that can withstand up to magnitude 8 earthquakes.

NOLA cant withstand any Cat 3 with a large storm surge- new levees or not.

The city is sinking into the ground, water levels worldwide are rising , and we are spending multiple tens of billions of dollars to protect the city against "the next storm".

The city is going to be hit at some point again in the next 50 years.

I realize it sucks to say what I am about to say, and in no way shape or form do I say it in a vindictive or hateful way, but it needs to be said, and done.

If this storm is going to hit somewhere on the gulf coast, then have it hit NO. I want everyone evacuated, no loss of life. But the city needs to be hit hard enough to knock some freaking sense into people.

Spending 10-20 billion dollars to protect a city thats already below sea level is assinine.

I dont want people hurt, but I dont want huge portions of our national budget being spent to rebuild a doomed city (weather or not its doomed this year, or 100 years from now)
 
One could make the same arguments about putting a shitload of oil platforms in one of the most hurricane-prone places in the world.

It's where the oil is. It's where the largest river in the continent enters the sea.

Even if no New Orleans existed 50 years ago, we would have built a New Orleans there by now anyway.

Yes, things should be done smarter. Yes, folks in NO and La. should realize that certain areas shouldn't be populated (sorry, 9th Ward -- it's just not meant to be). But there will always be a New Orleans. If you know well anyone in the oil bidness, or in the shipping bidness, New Orleans is a central part of what they do.

Baton Rouge is close enough my *** -- an hour-plus drive to get down just to the N.O. area? Nope, not gonna happen.

New Orleans is there because there needs to be a New Orleans there. We can debate (and should debate) the form that the city will take, how it will be protected, etc. But the discussions that amount to "let it be wiped off the map, with just a small number of folks centered around the port" is absurd and a fantasy. It's not going to happen. Not even if N.O gets hit with 2 more Katrinas in the next few years.
 
Then there needs to be measures taken by voters to ensure there is not a bail out of them in the future. If people decide to stay there, the pay there. Enough is enough and stupidity is just that.
 
NOLA -

While you may pity those of us capable of realizing the stupidity of allowing a major city to be built in a bowl next to the ocean and between a major river and a lake, your stubborn insistence on making it happen is setting up hundreds of thousands of people in a dangerous situation where their death is a very real possibility. So you can go ahead and pity us for using a little foresight to save lives. I would much rather have your pity with those people alive than your approval with those people dead.

Brisketexan -

There is no question that a New Orleans must remain. The point is that allowing major residential areas inside the bowl is stupid and absolutely inexcusable. The residential areas must be on the higher land. If people need to increase their commute, so be it.
 
Don't have the updated projected path, but apparently Gustav has veered west somewhat and now is targeting somewhere around the Tex-La border.
 
Yes, it's the east wall. The storm moving north combined with the counter-clockwise rotation makes the winds worse on the east side.
 
No, it's the west side - if it rotates clockwise. I thought they rotated clockwise. Maybe I'm losing it.
 
According to Wikipedia, storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere, and clockwise in the southern hemisphere. For us, the Northeast quadrant of the storm will contain the strongest winds, most rain, and be the most likely to spawn tornadoes.
 
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