green energy industry continues to decline
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Rex Kramer
1,000+ Posts
But bronco, look at the growth in the charts! Tesla, Tesla.
funny enough, the same blog i posted to above (No Tricks Zone) and read about 3 or 4 times per week over the past couple of years, has just linked to an article saying that a new EU internal document was discovered that basically speaks of the EU's intention to pull the plug on subsidies to wind and solar. If the governments of the world begin to radically cut subsidies to wind and solar, surely even you can admit this would be a gigantic setback for these industries that are massively struggling even WITH help from Western governments.
Europe to withdraw subsidies?
i put a question mark because this may only be a suggestion and may not be followed.
Europe to withdraw subsidies?
i put a question mark because this may only be a suggestion and may not be followed.
McBrett, perhaps math isn't a strong point of yours, but have you considered how much money has been thrown at solar and wind by the collective governments of the world and how much of that was in the form of money that came to a consumer? In Austin, there were subsidies offered by the city that basically reduced the price of solar by something like 75%. I was seriously considering pursuing it. You keep repeating that statistic like it is so impressive, but it is only impressive if it is not largely due to subsidies. i don't have enough numbers in front of me (certainly you have not given us enough) to know if a 30% increase in installations is a sign of global strength or merely of massive government subsidies. Do you want to help us all out with this or do you just want to keep repeating the 30% figure.
75% of the cost is subsidized? Oh god, this is why you're dangerous to stupid people. They want to believe that.
It's called a "Production Tax Credit"- it's worth about 2.2 cents/kwH for wind and solar and has been used on the bulk of utility scale renewables in the US. It is nowhere near "75%" as you would wish so you could have a point.
Germany? Great, no one says subsidies didn't help- but what you're missing is that is the entire point. They wanted to subsidize the industry until it got to a point where they were economic on their own. Guess what mop, we had a whole other thread here attempting to educate you how economic solar had become in the past decade on a cost basis WITHOUT subsidies. The programs worked. If you could understand this, you might even say "job well done!"
I hope the subsidies are taken away too for 2 reasons:
1) They aren't needed as much anymore because the costs have come down.
2) Stupid people like to say that the subsidies are the only reason clean energy works, and get really feisty when you point out subsidies for fossil fuels.
Once again mop, the chart showing installed megawatts is the end scoreboard you don't like to see unless you're more interested in hating the industry than learning about it. Subsidies help but don't make the industry alone, and don't come anywhere near to the levels you wish they did.
It's called a "Production Tax Credit"- it's worth about 2.2 cents/kwH for wind and solar and has been used on the bulk of utility scale renewables in the US. It is nowhere near "75%" as you would wish so you could have a point.
Germany? Great, no one says subsidies didn't help- but what you're missing is that is the entire point. They wanted to subsidize the industry until it got to a point where they were economic on their own. Guess what mop, we had a whole other thread here attempting to educate you how economic solar had become in the past decade on a cost basis WITHOUT subsidies. The programs worked. If you could understand this, you might even say "job well done!"
I hope the subsidies are taken away too for 2 reasons:
1) They aren't needed as much anymore because the costs have come down.
2) Stupid people like to say that the subsidies are the only reason clean energy works, and get really feisty when you point out subsidies for fossil fuels.
Once again mop, the chart showing installed megawatts is the end scoreboard you don't like to see unless you're more interested in hating the industry than learning about it. Subsidies help but don't make the industry alone, and don't come anywhere near to the levels you wish they did.
mcbrett, it is hard to have a productive conversation with someone who is very angry. i have been quite reasonable throughout this thread and have told you multiple times that i love the idea of solar power and want to see it work. i would be excited to purchase it for my own use actually. i am just not at all impressed with the figure you keep throwing at us in light of the other figures. you have done little to address the points made by several of us on this board and are now just repeating a mantra rather than actually engaging our points.
That article i linked to (BBC by the way) said that this year the industry will grow VERY little. the verdict is still out on how it is going to do going forward but the fact that an index of the biggest companies in the industry is faring so poorly is quite significant whether or not you want to admit it.
That article i linked to (BBC by the way) said that this year the industry will grow VERY little. the verdict is still out on how it is going to do going forward but the fact that an index of the biggest companies in the industry is faring so poorly is quite significant whether or not you want to admit it.
Rex Kramer
1,000+ Posts
Mcbrett- I have really tried to keep this debate from becoming personal, but it is hard to do when you seem to have no basis for reality or logic.
No one one here has questioned whether or not solar has grown in the last few years. No one. What I and others have contended is that the growth in the last few years was largely a result of some sort of govt intervention into the marketplace that artificially propped up solar. Now that the govt intervention is going away, the sector is in a free fall. It is a classic bursting bubble. Really, this is undebatable.
Well over 75% of the ENTIRE industry's growth last year was in 3 countries- Germany, Italy, and the czech republic. All 3 of them have started to phase out the subsidies and, as a result, the industry is in decline. Again, this is not debatable. You simply can not show a chart that predicts the growth of solar which was put together COUNTING on continued subsidies and argue it has any value. I thought you were supposedly in finance? The people that work in this sector every single day and reserach it every single day and know the way the sector is trending have all dumped their positions. This is so basic I cant believe we are actually having this discussion.
No one one here has questioned whether or not solar has grown in the last few years. No one. What I and others have contended is that the growth in the last few years was largely a result of some sort of govt intervention into the marketplace that artificially propped up solar. Now that the govt intervention is going away, the sector is in a free fall. It is a classic bursting bubble. Really, this is undebatable.
Well over 75% of the ENTIRE industry's growth last year was in 3 countries- Germany, Italy, and the czech republic. All 3 of them have started to phase out the subsidies and, as a result, the industry is in decline. Again, this is not debatable. You simply can not show a chart that predicts the growth of solar which was put together COUNTING on continued subsidies and argue it has any value. I thought you were supposedly in finance? The people that work in this sector every single day and reserach it every single day and know the way the sector is trending have all dumped their positions. This is so basic I cant believe we are actually having this discussion.
Uninformed
5,000+ Posts
Unimformed- When I made the statement you are referring to I was talking about existing companies and existing investment/financing.
Solar will have its time. There is honest debate about how big the sector will be ultimately but it will definitely play a part in the world's energy future. And there will be money to be made.
What I am talking about here is that by the govt meddling in the process, the current players and current investors are going to get killed. If you invested in a solar company 4 years ago, your investment is pretty much worthless at this point. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent and they wont be recouped.
I have had this debate with Mcbrett and he doesnt get it. The technology behind solar is certainly getting better, but it is not there yet. But, because govt were pressured by things like AGW and peak oild etc they tried to move up the timeline on solar. So, the solar companies went with devices that were not yet competitive because they knew they had a built in profit due to the govt involvement in pricing. As a result, now that the govt pricing is going away, the hundreds of billions spent on equipment that can't compete can not be recouped. Had solar remained in intensive R&D mode for a few more years it probably would have been able to compete honestly. And then there would be massive private support for the industry and the govt could stay out of it and the system would work. But the govt meddling allowed uncompetitive businesses to have rapid growth and attract investment that will now be wiped out.
This was predicted by many.
Folks like Mcbrett try and compare this to other products and their "early adopters" and they use things like cell phones and computers and VHS recorders etc. They point to how the prices came down once the devices gained traction. The difference is that there were no alternatives to cell phones or tv recorders when they first came out. It was revolutionary to be able to travel around with a phone or record a tv show or watch a movie at home with a cassette. There is nothing revolutionary about electricity. While the solar technology is revolutionary, the end product, electricity, is not. It doesnt allow the general public to do something it can't already do. Further, we are not talking about a rich guy buying a phone or a vcr with discretionary personal income. We are talking billions of dollars spent with govt and tax payer money. When the guy that spent $800 on a phone got to upgrade to a new better one for $700 he really didnt care and threw out the old one. When a group spoends $10 B to install a solar park they just cant throw it away when a better one comes along in a few years. These are serious financial investments.
Solar will have its time. There is honest debate about how big the sector will be ultimately but it will definitely play a part in the world's energy future. And there will be money to be made.
What I am talking about here is that by the govt meddling in the process, the current players and current investors are going to get killed. If you invested in a solar company 4 years ago, your investment is pretty much worthless at this point. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent and they wont be recouped.
I have had this debate with Mcbrett and he doesnt get it. The technology behind solar is certainly getting better, but it is not there yet. But, because govt were pressured by things like AGW and peak oild etc they tried to move up the timeline on solar. So, the solar companies went with devices that were not yet competitive because they knew they had a built in profit due to the govt involvement in pricing. As a result, now that the govt pricing is going away, the hundreds of billions spent on equipment that can't compete can not be recouped. Had solar remained in intensive R&D mode for a few more years it probably would have been able to compete honestly. And then there would be massive private support for the industry and the govt could stay out of it and the system would work. But the govt meddling allowed uncompetitive businesses to have rapid growth and attract investment that will now be wiped out.
This was predicted by many.
Folks like Mcbrett try and compare this to other products and their "early adopters" and they use things like cell phones and computers and VHS recorders etc. They point to how the prices came down once the devices gained traction. The difference is that there were no alternatives to cell phones or tv recorders when they first came out. It was revolutionary to be able to travel around with a phone or record a tv show or watch a movie at home with a cassette. There is nothing revolutionary about electricity. While the solar technology is revolutionary, the end product, electricity, is not. It doesnt allow the general public to do something it can't already do. Further, we are not talking about a rich guy buying a phone or a vcr with discretionary personal income. We are talking billions of dollars spent with govt and tax payer money. When the guy that spent $800 on a phone got to upgrade to a new better one for $700 he really didnt care and threw out the old one. When a group spoends $10 B to install a solar park they just cant throw it away when a better one comes along in a few years. These are serious financial investments.
Rex Kramer
1,000+ Posts
Hasta luego mcbrett. I will be sure to link to this thread the next time you bring up a similar topic, trying to ignore the fact that you've bailed on this thread.
Rex Kramer
1,000+ Posts
I'll quit after this post. But there are so many things that you simply choose to ignore that it is astonishing.
The biggest being that the green energy sector in general and solar in particular, have lost something lie 80% of their value over the past 18 months. The fact that you disregard this comical. You throw out GE. I have no idea why. Companies do not lose 80% of their value when they are either booming or ecpected to boom. The fact that this point escapes you is really amazing to me. Are you in some kind of la la land where only Mcbrett and the association that was specifically created to promote green energy are privy to great financial documentation on the expected boom of solar? You love that chart for sure. But almost every financial expert in the world that deals in the solar industry must have misinterpreted them because they have bailed on the stocks. They see a slow down in growth and a tightening of the industry. Do you even realize the ramifications of an 80% drop in value in such a short time period? They are predicting mass bankruptcies. yet you alone contend the sector is booming.
Grid parity? Another secret only you are aware of. The financial guys are really sleeping. Would you not think that achieving grid parity on a wide scale would cause analysts to be bullish on the industry? Grid parity in a few select areas means there are way too many comapnies out there right now and many will get clobbered.
The biggest being that the green energy sector in general and solar in particular, have lost something lie 80% of their value over the past 18 months. The fact that you disregard this comical. You throw out GE. I have no idea why. Companies do not lose 80% of their value when they are either booming or ecpected to boom. The fact that this point escapes you is really amazing to me. Are you in some kind of la la land where only Mcbrett and the association that was specifically created to promote green energy are privy to great financial documentation on the expected boom of solar? You love that chart for sure. But almost every financial expert in the world that deals in the solar industry must have misinterpreted them because they have bailed on the stocks. They see a slow down in growth and a tightening of the industry. Do you even realize the ramifications of an 80% drop in value in such a short time period? They are predicting mass bankruptcies. yet you alone contend the sector is booming.
Grid parity? Another secret only you are aware of. The financial guys are really sleeping. Would you not think that achieving grid parity on a wide scale would cause analysts to be bullish on the industry? Grid parity in a few select areas means there are way too many comapnies out there right now and many will get clobbered.
NEWDOC2002
1,000+ Posts
What are you talking about? The Chinese think this is a great success. Americans build a star-up company with some investor money, get a huge tax payer loan with no collateral and no real data that shows a reasonable ROI, company defaults on said loan, then Chinese government buys company for pennies on the dollar, shipping technology and equipment overseas.
It's the American Dream.
It's the American Dream.
good point. I think we should have spent MORE than we did. it is clear we didn't invest enough, things are going so well with all of our green energy investments.
Having said that, did you see the article about the countries of the world working on fusion? Seems very exciting and something we can really get pumped about. Fusion
Having said that, did you see the article about the countries of the world working on fusion? Seems very exciting and something we can really get pumped about. Fusion
I thought this new entry was going to report that yet another ' green ' company is going belly up .
Fisker, which vote hundreds of millions in loan guarantees from BO as well as stimulus money is all vut bankrupt.
It was praised by Bo and Biden as an example of creating jobs IN USA and offering a green car that would sell well.
Nope and nope
Apparently the cars were never built here but in Finland
and the taxpayer subsidized $7500.00 of every car sold.
from link
Fisker Automotive and its head-turning electric-gas hybrid automobile, the $100,000 Karma, are at death's door. The company laid off 160 of its remaining 219 employees earlier this month, hasn't made any cars since last July and says it will close its Anaheim headquarters if CEO Tony Posawatz can't find a new source of financing.
The Link
Is there a spread sheet with complanies that BO gave our money to that failed? I know we taxpayers have been bilked out of over a trillion by BO and his ' stimulus"
Fisker, which vote hundreds of millions in loan guarantees from BO as well as stimulus money is all vut bankrupt.
It was praised by Bo and Biden as an example of creating jobs IN USA and offering a green car that would sell well.
Nope and nope
Apparently the cars were never built here but in Finland
and the taxpayer subsidized $7500.00 of every car sold.
from link
Fisker Automotive and its head-turning electric-gas hybrid automobile, the $100,000 Karma, are at death's door. The company laid off 160 of its remaining 219 employees earlier this month, hasn't made any cars since last July and says it will close its Anaheim headquarters if CEO Tony Posawatz can't find a new source of financing.
The Link
Is there a spread sheet with complanies that BO gave our money to that failed? I know we taxpayers have been bilked out of over a trillion by BO and his ' stimulus"
McBrett, McBrett......o where art thou McBrett............
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