Game over on March 4th.

[blueglasshorse]

This isn't good news for Hillary. Hillary needs a big win in Texas. Based on the rules outlined in the article below, it is unlikely she will get it. Game over on March 4th. UNLESS she can win something between now and then. Hawaii maybe? Isn't that Where Obama was born? Large Asian population though. Prediction... March 5th. Hillary, out of money and delegates defecting, will drop out of the race.

http://www.caller.com/news/2008/feb/11/texas-arcane-delegate-system-suddenly-comes-play/

 

[dognduckhorn]

For some reason, it is a bad link

 

[softlynow]

If Clinton's team has any dirt to leak or dirty tricks to pull, now would be the time. Obama will win Hawaii, and looks likely to get all three Potomac primaries. The polling for Wisconsin is old (Dec. 7-9), at least on RCP, so calling that one would be dumb. Still, it seems Obama will have momentum like none other by TX/Ohio/RI/VT.

I agree she won't drop out until well after March 5th, but it may happen before the convention.

 

[bozo_casanova]

Fixed the link

 

[triplehorn]

Here's a good read that addresses a number of factors people are asking about:


Why Obama is Closer to the Nomination Than You Think


.

 

[TheTresLeches]

I agree that it will be over if Clinton can't win Texas and Ohio.
However, neither state sets up well for Obama.

Ohio is only 11% African-American and Southern Ohio may as well be rural Alabama when it comes to the attitudes of the white people there towards a black candidate. The Governor of Ohio has endorsed Clinton and state jobs there are filled purely by patronage to the Governor so he'll be calling in a lot of favors.

From the people I know in Obama's campaign, they are going to be putting more of an effort in Texas than Ohio.

In Texas, there are more white working class Democrats than white urban liberal Democrats. Hispanics outnumber blacks 3 to 1 in Texas and the Clintons have been around Texas Democratic politics since 1972. Hillary gave a eulogy at Ann Richards funeral if you remember. All these things will give her an initial advantage in this state.

I look forward to seeing if he can break through in either of these states.

If you look at the exit polls from Louisiana which is pretty representative of how Southern states have been voting, Obama got 85% of the black vote and 40% of the white vote. If that happens in Texas along with Clinton getting her usual 65-75% of the Hispanic vote, Clinton wins easily.

 

[Sii]

I think Obama has a great chance in Texas...better than most anyone thought a few weeks ago

at the least I think its close and the system allows him to pick up a good amount of delegates

especially with picking up some hispanic endorsements recently like Charlie Gonzalez

 

[SomeMildLanguage]

Clinton will win Ohio and Texas and it'll continue to be a race.

 

[TexasCrush]

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[SomeMildLanguage]

Why don't you think she wins Texas?

 

[TexasCrush]

Because I think he will end up getting more of the latino vote here than some think and I think he has all the momentum right now and he even gets some crossovers voting for him. People need to totally throw all thoughts of a few weeks ago on Obama not winning here out the window. I think the Texas system actuallly favors him more than not. He's been on the ground here for over a year and is very organized. I'm a republican who will be taking the dem ballot to vote against Hillary. I wont be alone either. Like I said - at worst I think he keeps it close and that is not good news for Hillary. She needs a blowout win. What is to suggest that Obama with all his momentum and wins he is racking up (possibly 10 straight into Texas) is going to get blown out?

 

[afat]

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[afat]

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[MTF]

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