financial market prognostication

zork

zork

2,500+ Posts
OK hornfans, pull out your swami hats and predict:

higher
or lower

for the following markets over the next 12 months. Meaning, where do you see them price wise, up or down.

Then qualify each higher or lower direction with a strength of move indicator for each using these qualifying categories : virtually unchanged (less than 1%),
a little(1% to just under 5%),
a lot(5% to just under 12%),
huge move (12% to just under 20%),
OMG move (20%+)


The markets in play and current stats:

Dow 12,667.27 -71.14
Nasdaq 2,517.23 -1.19
S&P 500 1,454.03 -3.60
10 YR 4.73% 0.04
Oil $60.95 $0.88
Gold $683.00 $-1.00

I'll go first:

Dow: lower (a lot)
Nasdaq: lower(a lot)
S&P500: lower(a lot)
10 Yr rate: higher(huge move)*
Oil: lower (a little)
Gold: lower(a little)

This is a prediction, again for the next 12 months, but we can revisit this thread to comment on the markets or whatever as time goes on.

* Interest rate change is a percentage move not actual change in percentage rate by the differeing amounts. for instance a huge move in the current 10Yr rate would be about a .5% move in the 10 yr rate, up over 5.25% to 5.75% for instance.

What say you prognosticator!
 
or, you can just pick one and make a dart throw. It's not like you die if you are wrong.
tongue.gif
 
yea, ok, maybe this was not the best idea. Still thought we might get some financial discussion going. kind of the hornfans amatuer wallstreet week. with zork rukieser .
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I'd love to get some financial discussion going. As far as oil goes, I think that it might actually go up. I know that people are really down on this but I think that it will just keep climbing through the summer months. After that I'd think that it would be a drop off. I know nothing about gold but think that Silver is probably a good buy. I should have bought it a couple of years ago. I find thisThe Link interesting.
 
Ok, as long as inflation stays relatively low then I don't expect the Fed to start raising interest rates. Given that, the economy should remain somewhat stable and the market to increase as well. I think if the markets do correct, it won't be a large one.
 
I suggested to Katy that they start a hornfans investment board. She thought there wouldn't be enough interest. If y'all think otherwise, you might send her a PM to let her know.
 
There is still plenty of time before 1 year is up. Nice start though except on the 10 year rate which attracted a lot of safe haven money.

Oil has bounced a bit too and will likely continue inching upwards into the summer driving season but I think more and more supply will be coming online. And more from Iraq too.

Today was just a blip.
 
The real estate market apparently hammered gdp for the first quarter. Inflation ticked up a tad too. This will be a tricky time for the fed.
 
Crude Oil- I think if we can get over $68 early next week, I think we may move well in to the 70-dollar range…perhaps test the old highs. If not, I think we’ll be rage bound between $60-65. Things to look for:

As long as gasoline prices stay high, refiners have a huge incentive to produce gasoline with a crack spread around $23. There should be a lot of demand for crude.

Low refinery utilization rates are making it difficult to build gasoline inventories, now just over 194 million bbls, makes the possible strikes in Belgium a big deal. We get a lot of our gasoline imports from Europe and I’m pretty sure they are relatively low on gasoline inventories as well, leaving less to export.

Crude inventories will probably start dropping around Cushing as utilization starts picking up to refine this gasoline. This probably will help WTI trek back towards Brent price levels, now at about $68. Valero Energy Corp.'s McKee refinery near Sunray, Texas and others coming back on should help this glut.

Gasoline demand (product supplied numbers), which has fallen in the last 3 EIA inventory reports, needs to stay robust. The 4 week average for gasoline demand is still strong, averaging 9.3 million bbls per day or 2.3% above the 5-year average.

Geopolitical Risks: The Saudi deal today… Maybe we’ll get some action in Nigeria and Shell delays bringing back on Forcados or something, assuming this is happening in the first place... Iran noise…who the hell knows.

Then before you know it, we’ll be talking about the hurricane season…

Once we get there, traders might start pointing towards those lofty IEA 4th quarter oil demand numbers, 87.6 million bbls/day…

You can make a pretty good case for oil going higher…but then again I could make a good case for oil going lower. I say higher but I reserve the right to change may mind as soon as my tongue reenters my mouth.
 
Re: "The markets in play and current stats:

Dow 12,667.27 -71.14
Nasdaq 2,517.23 -1.19
S&P 500 1,454.03 -3.60
10 YR 4.73% 0.04
Oil $60.95 $0.88
Gold $683.00 $-1.00 "

that oil price on the 22nd doesnt look right. perhaps im mistaken.
 
I was looking today for the financial site I cut and pasted the original numbers from back on february 22nd. Couldn't find it exactly. no time to look further now, here is a market listing:


Stocks are up a bit from my original post
10 year is down a tad(up in rate a bit)
oil is up from my original post
haven't checked gold.

[pre]Symbol Last Trade Last Chg %Chg Open High Low
S&P 16:05:38 EDT 1494.07 -0.18 -0.01 1494.21 1497.32 1488.67
Nasdaq 16:00:35 EDT 2557.21 2.75 0.11 2554.48 2562.99 2550.10
NYSE Comp 16:08:32 EDT 9705.36 -10.13 -0.10 9715.32 9724.55 9672.99
Dow Jones 16:03:20 EDT 13120.94 15.44 0.12 13104.04 13148.00 13073.40
Amex Comp 16:04:49 EDT 2204.99 7.74 0.35 2197.25 2205.78 2196.30
Russell 1000 16:05:54 EDT 814.58 -0.47 -0.06 815.03 816.32 811.83
Russell 2000 16:05:25 EDT 829.70 -4.1 -0.49 832.55 832.57 826.92
CBOE Volatility 16:14:55 EDT 12.45 -0.34 -2.66 13.12 13.26 12.41
10 Yr T-Note 14:59:20 EDT 4.698 0.014 0.30 4.682 4.705 4.660
30 Yr Bond 14:58:49 EDT 4.885 0.017 0.35 4.869 4.910 4.850
Fortune 500 16:00:15 EDT 107.82 -0.08 -0.07 107.92 108.05 107.45
Nasdaq 100 16:00:36 EDT 1891.06 1.49 0.08 1886.32 1894.97 1883.36
DJ Trans Avg 16:03:25 EDT 5122.39 -53.78 -1.04 5175.31 5175.31 5097.83
S&P 400 Midcap 16:05:20 EDT 886.43 -3.63 -0.41 890.06 890.06 884.23
Amex Major Market 16:02:33 EDT 1305.65 0.45 0.03 1305.20 1308.56 1301.4 [/pre]
 
Found it. it was marketwatch:

The Link

[pre]MARKET OVERVIEW ~ View Detail4:51 pm ET
Dow 13,120.94 15.44
Nasdaq 2,557.21 2.75
S&P 500 1,494.07 -0.18
10 YR 4.70% 0.01
Oil $66.46 $1.40
Gold $682.50 $3.80
[/pre]
 
Where are we in terms of this chart?

sector_rotation_model.png


IMO, energy has had its major run. The basics, e.g. DOW, MMM, etc. have been making a run the past few weeks. Is there still time to hop on the basics wagon or do we look forward to services?
 
We're supposedly in the midst of the longest bull run since the late 1920's. When is this thing gonna correct and how much?
 
Close of business today:

Dow 13,266.73 -198.94
Nasdaq 2,541.38 -45.80
S&P 500 1,490.72 -26.66
10 YR 5.10% 0.13
Oil $66.93 $0.97
Gold $665.20 $-9.40
The Link

10 yr rates are up, gold is steady down a bit, Oil is up some, industrial, tech, and broader markets are still higher than in Feb.
 
Here are the latest figures:

Dow 13,181.91 -281.42
Nasdaq 2,511.25 -64.73
S&P 500 1,433.06 -39.14
10 YR 4.70% -0.05
Oil $75.48 $-1.38
Gold $684.40 $7.80
 
If I were a good prognosticator i would be managing a hedge fund right now - but I am not.

Still - I saw this dip as a buying chance and put about 40K in the Windsor II fund from Vanguard.

I am a long term kinda guy anyways.
 
The underlying corporate profits are still very strong. Unless unit labor costs start to rise, earnings should continue to stay strong.

I also view the recent drop as a buying opportunity.
 
Dow 12,861.47 -167.45
Nasdaq 2,458.83 -40.29
S&P 500 1,406.70 -19.84
10 YR 4.71% -0.03
Oil $73.33 $0.95
Gold $679.70 $
The Link
 
The fed fears inflation comments yesterday....

Dow 13,041.85 -280.28
Nasdaq 2,500.64 -60.61
S&P 500 1,432.36 -34.43
10 YR 4.53% -0.07
Oil $71.73 $-0.24
Gold $673.50 $-2.70
 
as of 2/22:

Dow 12,667.27
nasdaq 2,517.23
S&P 500 1,454.03
10 YR 4.73%
Oil $60.95
Gold $683.00

as of 12/17:

Dow 13,167.20
nasdaq 2574.46
S&P 500 1,445.90
10 YR 4.19%
Oil $90.63
Gold $799.30
 
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