Does Texas need help to receive a Big12 title game slot?

BevoJoe said:
We get ISU at home. KU and KSU are on the road. I'm not going to say "we got this" because the last time we had a coach on the bubble, KU managed to but us at their place, and he disappeared like a fart in the wind shortly after. Not taking the position KU will win, but I still remember last season when they took us to the wire and we needed a FG to win as time expired. So, I am cautiously optimistic about KU. We will beat ISU at home, may be close like WVU, but it's a win. KSU is up there and they seem to play us tough and close every time. So, I hope the team stays focused the next three games and beats each one into oblivion. What happens after that, I have no idea.
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The weirdest thing to happen for Week 11 would be KSU beating ISU and OU beating OSU. We HAVE to beat KU... I refuse to believe anything other than that could happen. They look pitiful, and not just in comparison to us like in 2016 when we thought D'Onta Foreman would roll them.

It would look like this:
ISU 5-2
OU 5-2
KSU 5-2
Texas 5-2
OSU 4-2

It's tough to know the order of the 5-2 teams in the standings because of WVU and TCU... that's KSU's and Texas's "worst" losses among the 2-loss teams. Plus, because OSU has another game to play, they could easily jump up to tied for 1st.

We could see an ISU/KSU rematch in the CCG if OU won out and OSU lost at least once more. Otherwise, the tiebreaker will be that second one... record against the rest of the conference from top to bottom. OSU might be "out" based on losing to us. It's crazy how many combinations we have right now.
 
Personally, I think Texas loses one more game. Winning out would be the first year Herman didn't have at least one loss from the mid-group of Baylor / TT / ISU / W VA. So far he's 3-0 against KSU but this team is probably better than the others. ISU looks most likely, but KSU is on the road in a place Texas has not fared well in.

Wonder if 7-3 will make it - no way to know until more games are played out.
 
What will happen if one or more teams have to cancel because of COVID and there is no time to make that game up?

Possibly cancel the Feed Bowlesby's Ego Bowl?
 
Horns11 said:
The weirdest thing to happen for Week 11 would be KSU beating ISU and OU beating OSU. We HAVE to beat KU... I refuse to believe anything other than that could happen. They look pitiful, and not just in comparison to us like in 2016 when we thought D'Onta Foreman would roll them.

It would look like this:
ISU 5-2
OU 5-2
KSU 5-2
Texas 5-2
OSU 4-2

It's tough to know the order of the 5-2 teams in the standings because of WVU and TCU... that's KSU's and Texas's "worst" losses among the 2-loss teams. Plus, because OSU has another game to play, they could easily jump up to tied for 1st.

We could see an ISU/KSU rematch in the CCG if OU won out and OSU lost at least once more. Otherwise, the tiebreaker will be that second one... record against the rest of the conference from top to bottom. OSU might be "out" based on losing to us. It's crazy how many combinations we have right now.
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My only critique of this^^^^^
Is I do not see, unless I misread, where you accounted for another Kstate loss...which is highly likely without their QB. That loss would put them out of the mix with 3 losses.
And you are right about the endless scenarios. I've been tempted but not enough time in the day to go there.

I, for one, see 2 loss ou, OSU, UT and ISU at end of regular season...with ISU losing to us and osu losing to ou

If someone wants to dissect the projected/ likeliest tiebreaker scenarios out of those 4 teams I think you will cover likely scenarios for the final 3-4 teams standing and which two would remain....
 
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RainH2burntO said:
My only critique of this^^^^^
Is I do not see, unless I misread, where you accounted for another Kstate loss...which is highly likely without their QB. That loss would put them out of the mix with 3 losses.
And you are right about the endless scenarios. I've been tempted but not enough time in the day to go there.

I, for one, see 2 loss ou, OSU, UT and ISU at end of regular season...with ISU losing to us and osu losing to ou

If someone wants to dissect the projected/ likeliest tiebreaker scenarios out of those 4 teams I think you will cover likely scenarios for the final 3-4 teams standing and which two would remain....
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Oh I completely agree... I think KSU will end up on the "outs" based on losses to ISU and Texas (and maybe Baylor, to be honest). I'm more worried about the December weather in Manhattan than I am about the football team. They looked downright awful on both sides of the ball against WVU. They're a shell of the team that beat OU. I was just saying that it's possible to still get a ISU/KSU rematch in the CCG based on all the math right now and potentially through 11/21.

If ISU, OU, Texas, and OSU all end up 7-2, the first tiebreaker solves it. Mini round robin means that Texas and OU will be 2-1 against the others, while ISU and OSU will be 1-2 against the others.
 
Horns11 said:
Oh I completely agree... I think KSU will end up on the "outs" based on losses to ISU and Texas (and maybe Baylor, to be honest). I'm more worried about the December weather in Manhattan than I am about the football team. They looked downright awful on both sides of the ball against WVU. They're a shell of the team that beat OU. I was just saying that it's possible to still get a ISU/KSU rematch in the CCG based on all the math right now and potentially through 11/21.

If ISU, OU, Texas, and OSU all end up 7-2, the first tiebreaker solves it. Mini round robin means that Texas and OU will be 2-1 against the others, while ISU and OSU will be 1-2 against the others.
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Well, there you go...looks like you have it.
guess it poops on my brains desire.
My heart was saying letsxrematch with ou but my brain was saying hope for rematch with ISU...not that I dont think we can beat ou...just playing the odds.
Obviously rematching with ou and winning that game would be our optimal 2020 scenario at this point.

Now that is with 4 teams tied.
If we only have 3 then it changes...
isu, ou, ut......all 1-1 within group and goes to 2nd tiebreaker which I believe is strength of record vs opponents outside of group (this not likely because unlikely osu has >2 losses)
Ut, ou, osu... ou and ut in (assuming osu other loss is vs ou)
isu, ut, osu... unlikely but would be ut and osu in

????
 
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RainH2burntO said:
Well, there you go...looks like you have it.
guess it poops on my brains desire.
My heart was saying letsxrematch with ou but my brain was saying hope for rematch with ISU...not that I dont think we can beat ou...just playing the odds.
Obviously rematching with ou and winning that game would be our optimal 2020 scenario at this point.

Now that is with 4 teams tied.
If we only have 3 then it changes...
isu, ou, ut......all 1-1 within group and goes to 2nd tiebreaker which I believe is strength of record vs opponents outside of group (this not likely because unlikely osu has >2 losses)
Ut, ou, osu... ou and ut in (assuming osu other loss is vs ou)
isu, ut, osu... unlikely but would be ut and osu in

????
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Sort of. 2nd tiebreaker is record from top to bottom. Since it'd be 1-1 against each other at the top 3, you can stop the process as soon as there are only 2 teams remaining. So we really need to see how it would shake out between spots 4-10.
 
Horns11 said:
Sort of. 2nd tiebreaker is record from top to bottom. Since it'd be 1-1 against each other at the top 3, you can stop the process as soon as there are only 2 teams remaining. So we really need to see how it would shake out between spots 4-10.
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Sounds right..... We cannot know the 2nd tiebreakers yet
 
What are the rules in the B12 is a regular season game cant be played by Dec 13th?
CFP requires a minimum of 7 games?
No extra weekend dates left after KS postponed to Dec 12.

TV games postponed and cancelled for this weekend.
Arizona State at Colorado N/A Cancelled (was ESPN2
Central Arkansas at Louisiana Lafayette N/A Cancelled (was $espn+)
Charlotte at Marshall N/A Postponed (was Stadium)
Georgia Tech at Miami N/A Moved to 12/19
Houston at SMU N/A Postponed (was ESPNU)
Louisiana Monroe at Louisiana Tech N/A Cancelled (was Stadium)
Michigan State at Maryland N/A Cancelled (was BTN)
Navy at South Florida N/A Postponed (was ESPNU)
Ole Miss at Texas A&M N/A Postponed (was CBS)
San Jose State at Fresno State N/A Cancelled (was CBSSN)
Texas at Kansas N/A Postponed (was ESPN2
UNLV at Colorado State N/A Postponed (was FS2)
Wake Forest at Duke N/A Postponed (was ACC Network
 
PecosBill said:
What are the rules in the B12 is a regular season game cant be played by Dec 13th?
CFP requires a minimum of 7 games?
No extra weekend dates left after KS postponed to Dec 12.

TV games postponed and cancelled for this weekend.
Arizona State at Colorado N/A Cancelled (was ESPN2
Central Arkansas at Louisiana Lafayette N/A Cancelled (was $espn+)
Charlotte at Marshall N/A Postponed (was Stadium)
Georgia Tech at Miami N/A Moved to 12/19
Houston at SMU N/A Postponed (was ESPNU)
Louisiana Monroe at Louisiana Tech N/A Cancelled (was Stadium)
Michigan State at Maryland N/A Cancelled (was BTN)
Navy at South Florida N/A Postponed (was ESPNU)
Ole Miss at Texas A&M N/A Postponed (was CBS)
San Jose State at Fresno State N/A Cancelled (was CBSSN)
Texas at Kansas N/A Postponed (was ESPN2
UNLV at Colorado State N/A Postponed (was FS2)
Wake Forest at Duke N/A Postponed (was ACC Network
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The tiebreakers are here: Tiebreaker Procedures

It includes the tiebreakers for teams who played a different number of conference games due to cancellations. Basically, if you're 6-2 and someone else is 7-2, they look at the head-to-head and whoever won between them gets the nod. I think the should just cancel the CCG if that's the case, but whatever.
 
Don’t want to play OU again and nobody on their schedule is going to beat them.

Okie State got as close as anyone will get.

they have hit stride.
 
What I still can't figure out is if we win out and Oklahoma wins out, but Oklahoma State doesn't.

The article listed:
  1. Oklahoma Sooners 8-2 (7-2)
  2. Texas Longhorns 8-2 (7-2)
  3. Oklahoma State 8-2 (7-2)
  4. Iowa State 7-3 (7-2)
But what if Oklahoma State loses another game? Then it's us, OU, and ISU, all with 2 losses, and all having gone 1-1 against each other. In that case, it looks oddly like whoever's other loss was to the best opponent is out. In which it helps us that our other loss would be TCU. Then it would matter whether KSU (Oklahoma's loss) or Oklahoma State (Iowa State's loss) was higher-ranked.

But it seems like this could end up in an impasse. If spots 4-6 are also in a three way tie, then might they need to first know the order of spots 1-3 to know how to break the tie, while spots 1-3 need to know the order of spots 4-6 first?
 
Stay, Texas will have the tiebreaker over both oSu and ISU. If Texas loses on Friday ou will get another shot at ISU.
 
Should have gone for two after the second OT TD.

I can see not going for it after the last TD in regulation - OU had done squat for most of the 4th quarter, and there was the chance that they would stink out OT as well.

But after OU easily scored in OT 1 and OT 2, it was clear they were moving the ball with ease. So the game would come down to someone making a play - might as well let Texas try to make that play and win the game.
 
Statalyzer said:
What I still can't figure out is if we win out and Oklahoma wins out, but Oklahoma State doesn't.

The article listed:
  1. Oklahoma Sooners 8-2 (7-2)
  2. Texas Longhorns 8-2 (7-2)
  3. Oklahoma State 8-2 (7-2)
  4. Iowa State 7-3 (7-2)
But what if Oklahoma State loses another game? Then it's us, OU, and ISU, all with 2 losses, and all having gone 1-1 against each other. In that case, it looks oddly like whoever's other loss was to the best opponent is out. In which it helps us that our other loss would be TCU. Then it would matter whether KSU (Oklahoma's loss) or Oklahoma State (Iowa State's loss) was higher-ranked.

But it seems like this could end up in an impasse. If spots 4-6 are also in a three way tie, then might they need to first know the order of spots 1-3 to know how to break the tie, while spots 1-3 need to know the order of spots 4-6 first?
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I think it goes to scoring differential between the 3 schools.
 
Yeah I just looked closer and there is no impasse. If that happens, they don't need to break the tie for spots 4-6, they only need to know #1 and #2. So Texas, OU, and ISU would just compare records vs all the teams tied for the #4 spot collectively if there are 3 or more such teams. But if in this scenario the tied teams were Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and TCU, then we'd all be 2-1 against that group and it would go into scoring margin. Since Oklahoma beat us by 8 and lost to Iowa State by 7, OU would be in automatically, and we'd need to beat Iowa State by at least 8 points.

The fact that they use margin of victory as a tiebreaker in a sport where sometimes you aren't allowed to run the final conversion attempt if it doesn't affect whether you win or lose, and that they don't realize that any overtime win was a closer win than even a 1-point regulation win, has some interesting implications, even though this is highly unlikely to matter:

1 - Oklahoma gets a slight edge by taking more OTs to win against Texas, since you don't have to go for 2 until the 3rd OT meaning they probably wouldn't have won by 8.

2 - OU also got from winning in an OT period in which they went first. Had Texas gone first and then OU scored the TD, they wouldn't have been allowed to try the XP, so they win by 6 and not 8.

3 - In hindsight, it would have been bad for Oklahoma had Texas gone for 2 at the end of regulation even had Oklahoma stopped the conversion and won.

4 - If Texas and Iowa State are tied and Texas scores a TD with no time left, we should go for 2 (the odds of this mattering are too low so they shouldn't try it if there was time left) - but again, I don't know if that's even allowed, as I think now if you score with 0:00 on the clock there is automatically no conversion if victory or loss is already assured regardless

5 - If Texas and Iowa State are tied late in the game and Texas wins on a last-second FG, in hindsight it might end up that Texas would have been better off missing the FG, so that it would have gone to OT where we'd have a chance to win by 8.
 
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