GOBH, HIO, HSS, and kchorn, thanks for some very well conceived and well articulated responses. kc, it's good to see you again - I was concerned that my suggestion of FB abandonment would send you onto the ledge with CloseToJumping/horndfl.
I've got a mixed reaction to GOBH's very astute observations about there coming a day when, for either reasons of human frailty or curses from the weather gods, we have to run the ball. First, we did have several wet fields last season and the only time I recall us struggling was vs OU, and I don't think that was due to the damp. It certainly didn't bother the Sooners very much.
My personal view is that good teams don't necessarily take what the other teams give them, they take what they want. For us, that's the pass and, if we face a secondary who can run with the Big Three (and OU will be able to do so), we've got to win our share of those individual matchups, be it through scheme and route design or by player effort. Great players make plays, and, if we can't muster the playmaking to make our base offense successful, then we're likely ******.
To clarify the above - when I talk about executing the base offense, that means vs the opponents base defense, whether it be a 4-3 when we're in the two back, two WR set, or whether they're in the nickel/dime when we go four receiver/ one back formations. Our base offense, in that situation, simply must be good enough to force the opponents' to compromise their defensive posture to stop our passing game - and, when they do, then we must be able to run the ball, be it through draws, traps, counters, or whatever. I do like HSS' idea of getting the ball outside the tackles, thereby negating the inside blitzers.
A parallel to the above, on the other facet of the offense, is UNL. The Huskers are going to run the ball, using the option to stretch the field horizontally and the inside game to pound it between the tackles. The natural reaction from a defense that can't stop their attack with a base set, say the 4-3, is to cheat up one, or both safeties for increased run support. When that happens, ie, the defense has compromised their base set, then Crouch hits Wistrom, who's behind the cheating safeties, for about forty.
The same scenario could be said for us in 1998, as others have noted. We were using the same basic formations and blocking schemes that are still in place, possibly even less sophisticated (if that's possible), yet we ran effectively due to Ricky's outstanding skills and the blocking of the veteran Mike Deal-developed line. That success gave us a lot of eight-nine in the box and opened it up for Applewhite. Fast forward to this season - we don't know yet if we have that coveted tackle-breaking TB, but I didn't see one in spring. The OL, developed under that tutelage of Tim Nunez, is looking to be a solid pass protection unit, but I was underwhelmed with the run blocking. Tim, according to his resume, has coached the OL at Marshall and here, in both cases the offenses being pass oriented. I don't know how much experience he has in teaching the zone blocking techniques that he and Davis seem to favor. I also can't tell how much the OL's performance is hampered by the schemes and by the lack of a strong TB.
The other concern, that others have already alluded to, is the predictability of our playcalling. I claim no expertise in this aread, but others - better skilled than I - have made a habit of calling too many of our plays prior to the snap for my comfort level. If they can see it, presumably opposing DCs can see it, as well. The danger with that is a defense able to predict the play with some degree of accuracy is a defense tough to move out of their base set. For example, if we're running four receivers and the defense is in a nickel and playing a two deep zone, we should be able to pound it through the thinned box with success. However, if the safeties read run, they can walk it up during the snap count and turn into two additional LBs. Likewise, if the LBs read run, they start looking for gaps to shoot to disrupt the play in the backfield, rather than thinking about their drop zones. IOW, predictability allows an opponent to compensate for our strength, without being exposed for his adjustments.