Crypto Currency

[Dionysus]

If the next 10 years are anything like the last 10 — I know that’s a huge IF but humor me here — BTC could be the greatest asymmetric bet our generation has ever seen. The downside is strictly limited and the upside is ... well, ask Greg.

Or it could go to zero.

This not financial advice.

 

[AC]

I made this asymmetric bet, thanks in part to Dion comforting me about it back in March. I am so glad I did it. I never trusted our currency, just thought Gold, Silver were the only answer. Everyone needs to get off $0. Don’t be a nocoiner!

Any of you in Houston, I am putting a deal together that if you use Neutral ATM to buy bitcoin I’ll give you a pass to use the gun range at Texas Gun Club! It’s a really fun club with a lounge, kitchen, gun shop, they sell lots of clothing, gear, & guns. My ATM is in there starting in August.

 

[Dionysus]

I made this asymmetric bet, thanks in part to Dion comforting me about it back in March

I don’t need this kind of pressure sir!

 

[Driver 8]

There is no answer in the available literature to the question why a government monopoly of the provision of money is universally regarded as indispensable. ... It has the defects of all monopolies.

Friedrich Hayek

 

[AC]

I don’t need this kind of pressure sir!

We agree it’s a good trade, which is a better word than bet. I truly think the USD is being debased. Someday inflation will hit, however that doesn’t automatically mean Bitcoin will go up. IMHO it will. But we don’t give investment advice. Do your own research, right?

 

[Chop]

There is no answer in the available literature to the question why a government monopoly of the provision of money is universally regarded as indispensable. ... It has the defects of all monopolies.

Friedrich Hayek

Back 15-20 years ago, operators of 8-liner slot machines would often get away with semi-legal gambling by using Wal-Mart gift cards as redeemable prizes instead of cash. I don't think the AG like it much at all. The point is that Wal-Mart gift cards operated as a sort of currency.

 

[Garmel]

Back 15-20 years ago, operators of 8-liner slot machines would often get away with semi-legal gambling by using Wal-Mart gift cards as redeemable prizes instead of cash. I don't think the AG like it much at all. The point is that Wal-Mart gift cards operated as a sort of currency.

Yep. My family and I were heavily involved in the 8-liner business back then. GW Bush was the governor then. He and the AG couldn't stand 8-liners and took us down.

 

[AC]

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

The DXY USD Index is trending way down which is really propelling Gold and Bitcoin. Its down -4.47% for the year. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan predict the dollar will lose another 5% this year.

 

[Dionysus]

Gold: up
Bitcoin: up
Stocks: up
Real estate: up

Or is it just ...
Dollar: down
?

 

[Dionysus]

@Chop Re our earlier posts about GBTC — Grayscale’s Assets Under Management now over $5.1 billion. They are buying up a lot of bitcoin.

The late-2017 spike was the ICO boom and when BTC shot up briefly to nearly $20,000.

 

[AC]

Since post halving only 900 BTC per day are created GBTC and other institutional investors (Fidelity) are buying up most if not all the BTC. Square buys a lot too. The exchanges Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, Houbi, Binance are doing the same. The demand for Gold, Silver, BTC is for a Hedge against inflation & centralised monetary policy. The demand for stocks is Fed Liquidity, and for Real Estate it’s low interest rates. Stocks are only up if your talking Nasdaq, the rest are flat. In October maybe sooner stocks will crash as these stimulus payments slow down, maybe that effects real estate in 21’. The other three will rise up after getting pulled down by stocks. Hedges are going to end up the only way to a good return!

 

[Driver 8]

 

[AC]

 

[iatrogenic]

Don't confuse using legitimate criticism of a system as justification of an unproven solution.

 

[Monahorns]

Powell is an economic idiot. He is well trained in Keynesianism, so he is brainw... I mean educated.

AC, Dion, etc, what do y'all think of Ethereum?

 

[AC]

 

[AC]

Powell is an economic idiot. He is well trained in Keynesianism, so he is brainw... I mean educated.

AC, Dion, etc, what do y'all think of Ethereum?

When Bitcoin pumps Ethereum dumps. The money runs to the SCARCE asset!

 

[AC]

Sorry but when this bubble unwinds. It’s going to make Madusa look like Cindy Crawford! Q2 GDP -33%, announced today.
And yesterday Kodak stock had 1.5Million transactions before the announcement of the Gov stimulus $. Previously they average 51K transactions in the stock per day. I see Bitcoin and Gold, Silver as the BEST safe havens.

 

[Dionysus]

AC, Dion, etc, what do y'all think of Ethereum?

I don’t follow it closely any more. It originally aspired to be a “world computer” but it turns out the tech wouldn’t scale (the founders said this from the beginning), and then it was the platform for the 2017 ICO (shitcoin) boom, then they were claiming the native token (ETH) was money, and I don’t know what they are doing now.

I think it’s worth watching though because its young Canadian creator, Vitalik Buterin, is probably genius-level on the tech and I wouldn't be surprised if Ethereum found its niche and took off. It is very ambitious and I have respect for the innovative work that has gone into it.

 

[nashhorn]

AC can you even imagine what that chart will look like if the lockdown continues,,, or if the $600 giveaway continues?

 

[Driver 8]

Thus there would be an inevitable tendency for the less marketable of the series of goods used as media of exchange to be one by one rejected until at last only a single commodity remained, which was universally employed as a medium of exchange; in a word, money.

Mises, 1912

 

[AC]

Well, re: Ethereum. I will invest when the Bitcoin boom is at or above 95% supply in profit on Glassnode. That means over 95% of all BTC owners are in profit. I may push it to 96-97%. It will be hard to sell BTC but eventually I will get more into ETH. They take turns. Right now it’s BTC! I got my youngest (17) her first investment in BTC today. She’s already up a little. ETH and XRP are the strongest of the shitcoins. They’ll both pump after Bitcoin late 2021, early 2022.

 

[AC]

Thus there would be an inevitable tendency for the less marketable of the series of goods used as media of exchange to be one by one rejected until at last only a single commodity remained, which was universally employed as a medium of exchange; in a word, money.

Mises, 1912

I think it’s Bitcoin. I swallowed the red pill.
Matrix reference.

 

[AC]

AC can you even imagine what that chart will look like if the lockdown continues,,, or if the $600 giveaway continues?

Argentina, Lebanon

 

[AC]

 

[iatrogenic]

Well, re: Ethereum. I will invest when the Bitcoin boom is at or above 95% supply in profit on Glassnode. That means over 95% of all BTC owners are in profit. I may push it to 96-97%. It will be hard to sell BTC but eventually I will get more into ETH. They take turns. Right now it’s BTC! I got my youngest (17) her first investment in BTC today. She’s already up a little. ETH and XRP are the strongest of the shitcoins. They’ll both pump after Bitcoin late 2021, early 2022.

So if anyone can develop a new medium of exchange, at any time, that is exactly like Bitcoin, why would Bitcoin hold its value? Serious question.

 

[Run Pincher]

Sorry but when this bubble unwinds. It’s going to make Madusa look like Cindy Crawford! Q2 GDP -33%, announced today.
And yesterday Kodak stock had 1.5Million transactions before the announcement of the Gov stimulus $. Previously they average 51K transactions in the stock per day. I see Bitcoin and Gold, Silver as the BEST safe havens.

I have a serious question too. I think a bubble is building too, but what you're suggesting is a strong inverse relationship to the markets vs BTC, Gold, etc. However, if I transpose a 3 year graph of BTC and Gold vs the Dow I see a very strong positive correlation, especially when the markets crashed in March. There's even a stronger correlation to the Nasdaq. Logic would indicate there should be a negative correlation, but that's not what's happening. When the markets crash again, what makes you so sure BTC and Gold won't crash along with it?

 

[Driver 8]

So if anyone can develop a new medium of exchange, at any time, that is exactly like Bitcoin, why would Bitcoin hold its value? Serious question.

Because the others are not "exactly like bitcoin" - it is just a copy of the code with possibly some different rules (eg, number of coins, block size)
See the market cap and trading volumes on BTC vs BCH and BSV, two bitcoin forks
Mises quote above addresses this

 

[AC]

I have a serious question too. I think a bubble is building too, but what you're suggesting is a strong inverse relationship to the markets vs BTC, Gold, etc. However, if I transpose a 3 year graph of BTC and Gold vs the Dow I see a very strong positive correlation, especially when the markets crashed in March. There's even a stronger correlation to the Nasdaq. Logic would indicate there should be a negative correlation, but that's not what's happening. When the markets crash again, what makes you so sure BTC and Gold won't crash along with it?

BTC and Gold can get coorelated to Nasdaq, S&P but that is not long term. Long Term they are NOT correlated. How can you see a strong correlation between DJIA and BTC? That’s not accurate. BTC returns are 62,500% over the last decade. If your just talking the March crash it is accurate. Not sure of your time frame. You must understand Global Macro Fundrmentals. See Real Vision. Follow Raul Pal, Caitlin Long, Anthony Pompliano on Twitter.

Once you join Real Vision you’ll start getting more Global Macro education fed to you daily. They have free content. You have to go through that education process. It’s not in one chart. Gold and BTC outperform stocks especially in a financial crisis. This will last years and we’re just 4.5 months into this. Give it time to develop. BTC, Gold should be at double or a lot more annual returns than all stock markets by year end. But yes when stocks crash again BTC and Gold will drop too. If you wait they will end up much higher. BTC has more than tripled since March 13. Stocks aren’t doing that.

 

[iatrogenic]

Because the others are not "exactly like bitcoin" - it is just a copy of the code with possibly some different rules (eg, number of coins, block size)
See the market cap and trading volumes on BTC vs BCH and BSV, two bitcoin forks
Mises quote above addresses this

So if I had the same number of coins and the same block size, I have the exact same product with a smaller market share. I can increase that market share by having a price 1/1000th of Bitcoin.

Common sense addresses this.