Crypto Currency

[AC]

No. Strictly Macro Economics.
I know the game. Print $> $1MM per second = $5.6Trillion per year>110% Debt to GDP ratio> unsustainable>GDP -25%>US FED Debt Default>Inflation.

I can’t predict the future. Inflation and later on hyper inflation more likely than default. But who knows.

I’m up almost 40% on BTC in one month BTC
Fiat currency

 

[AC]

This could be a 5-20 year process, be patient and pay attention. I’m just trying to raise awareness and help!

 

[Driver 8]

I’m up almost 40% on BTC in one month BTC

Hang on tight, this roller coaster goes both ways

 

[AC]

I can show you when we’re at the top. I know what to look for! May 1st was the day the shift pointing to a long run up started. I’ll tell you when it shifts down. Don’t know when that will be.

 

[Dionysus]

The halving is coming up soon. The previous two events triggered price appreciation but it was a few months later. Lots of speculation about this one too but nobody knows. The current macro environment is favorable for it.

 

[AC]

Steve Courtney ~ Crypto Crew University (@CryptoCrewU) on Twitter

 

[AC]

Netflix has a new show out called "Billions".
They talk Bitcoin. Good scene here.

 

[AC]

This Graph shows what I have mentioned in numerous posts. I see that this was produced a few years ago, maybe 2013 or so. To the right of the dotted line where we are now in 2020. Debt to GDP is at a MUCH steeper rate than this shows. Since March we have totally stairstepped the ratio and I agree with Dan Held who authored this, it's not coming back down much if at all from where it is. The future ratios from here are truly unsustainable. This is why cryptocurrency is'nt going anywhere. It is the Future.

 

[Driver 8]

This Graph shows what I have mentioned in numerous posts. I see that this was produced a few years ago, maybe 2013 or so. To the right of the dotted line where we are now in 2020. Debt to GDP is at a MUCH steeper rate than this shows. Since March we have totally stairstepped the ratio and I agree with Dan Held who authored this, it's not coming back down much if at all from where it is. The future ratios from here are truly unsustainable. This is why cryptocurrency is'nt going anywhere. It is the Future.

The current global macro scene has me more bullish on bitcoin than ever

In a few years I think a lot of people are going to kick themselves knowing they could have bought in for under $10k - it is still early

 

[Driver 8]

Imagine in the early 90s you had an opportunity to buy a piece of the internet, what would that be worth today? Bitcoin could be bigger

 

[iatrogenic]

So you're equating bitcoin with the internet? Try equating it with the PalmPilot.

 

[AC]

So you're equating bitcoin with the internet? Try equating it with the PalmPilot.

You sound like my little brother. Who I really worry about are my parents and my In Laws. I just don’t think I can talk to them until I’ve doubled my investment. That will get their attention! Maybe Thanksgiving or Christmas.

FYI Warren Buffet the sage of Omaha sold all his stock and is sitting on $138 Billion in cash waiting to re invest. He sees a 40% plus stock crash coming. I agree.

 

[iatrogenic]

You may have mistaken my bitcoin skepticism with an enthusiasm for stocks. Not so brother.

 

[AC]

So what do you invest in then?
Beats talking politics!

 

[Driver 8]

So you're equating bitcoin with the internet? Try equating it with the PalmPilot.

I'll have my girl run the model in the morning, you may be on to something

 

[iatrogenic]

So what do you invest in then?
Beats talking politics!

You’ve narrowed it down already. What would you invest in if you didn’t have to invest in anything?

 

[AC]

Uhh. Bit Coin. And Land, Residential Real Estate. Maybe Gold, but I view Bit Coin as Digital Gold 2.0 and probably 10X the investment. If your just in cash, then your in a similar boat to my In Laws and I am worried about them. If the Fed is printing at least $1 to $1.5 Million per second that is $5.6 Trillion per year plus. I heard today $6 Trillion in the next quarter. So, that would be several Million per second. Anyway, that money is mostly going to Fortune 500's who are buying back their stock to pump the market. That will crash, then the Fed will have to print more money. Pretty soon, 2021 most likely, we'll see inflation in waves. In 2023 and 2024 it will ramp up to hyperinflation? I cant see that far out. Maybe that will take longer, point is, it's going to get worse. We just don't know when. At least we have given you some clarity or vision into this issue. You seem pretty smart. I bet you react quickly when you have to! I am guessing your invested in Real Estate. As long as your not in office space it's also a good play.

Kraken.com is a great, well funded exchange. If you need it in a pinch!

 

[iatrogenic]

Anyway, that money is mostly going to Fortune 500's who are buying back their stock to pump the market.

Ask yourself this: In what form is the money going to fortune 500 companies? In other words, what is the liability associated with the cash asset used to repurchase their own shares? Then figure out how that liability affects both the financial risk of the company and its stock price (i.e.value) as seen by the market. Increasing a company's leverage doesn't necessarily increase the value of the stock no matter how many shares are being bought and sold.

The bigger picture is a decrease in value of one asset does not necessarily mean an increase in the value of any other particular asset relatively speaking, even if the price of that other asset increases in the short term.

In the long run I think office space is a loser. Many firms have just realized that their employees can operate from their homes, so why waste money on lease expenses? Oil companies are beginning to realize this, and I'm betting that doesn't bode well for Texas' office lease space.

Comparing bitcoin to gold is interesting. Both are expensive to mine, and both are scarce. At least bitcoin is supposedly scarce. In reality, anybody could start the next "bitcoin" with an equal or more secure electronic platform, and that would decrease the value of bitcoin. Q: How many different cryptocurrencies could be born with the same or better security as bitcoin? A: An infinite number. Q: What is the price of a commodity with no scarcity? A: Zero

I hope that gives you some clarity as well.

 

[Dionysus]

In reality, anybody could start the next "bitcoin" with an equal or more secure electronic platform, and that would decrease the value of bitcoin.

That’s not the case at all, for a few reasons but the most important one is the existing network effects. A good comparison is Google Plus. Anyone remember that?

Google Plus was going to be the “Facebook Killer” social media platform. They had great tech, a slick user interface, lots of cool features. Some people left Facebook and jumped on G+ but quickly found that the overwhelming majority of people were still on Facebook because ... that’s where everyone else was, i.e., Facebook had the first-mover advantage, carved out a dominant position, and was good enough to maintain it. G+ is no more.

Similarly, Bitcoin has a massive advantage due to its decade-plus history, liquidity, global decentralization, hashrate (security), brand recognition, among others.

Miners are financially incentivized to work the strongest blockchain. The “next bitcoin” would have to entice miners to move from bitcoin to the new network, which means it would have to demonstrate greater profitability in mining the new asset. How would they do that?

 

[iatrogenic]

Bad analogy.

Try the analogy of bitcoin vs brand x cryptocurrency when bitcoin reaches the extreme values bitcoin investors predict. When big $ are involved the game will change.

 

[Dionysus]

Explain

 

[iatrogenic]

The reason gold isn’t used is because it’s too expensive and time consuming to extract. The exact same thing will happen with bitcoin.

Another problem is that liquidity cannot be increased in times of need, which, ironically, is the reason the dollar is criticized by bitcoin users. Bitcoin would fail miserably in today’s Coronavirus economy precisely because of its limited quantity.

 

[Dionysus]

Why is increased liquidity needed in the first place?

I don’t know enough about global finance, central banking, etc — but I suspect that there are deeper systemic issues in our financial systems that create the boom/bust cycles we are so familiar with.

Are these things inevitable with any currency standard, or could a better monetary foundation be created that leads to greater stability?

 

[AC]

Another problem is that liquidity cannot be increased in times of need, which, ironically, is the reason the dollar is criticized by bitcoin users.

The criticism of the dollar starts and ends with Central Bank control over Dollar liquidity. Had the US remained on the Gold Standard longer and eventually gone to a Digital Gold standard where would we be now? I think Gold would have attracted alot more investors than stocks from 1971 to the early 2000's. However, it would have been available to alot more people and the rising tide would have lifted the middle class. We would have gone to digital currency much sooner than now. We would not have been motivated by Politics and Greed to increase the Debt to GDP ratio so much. Your too hung up on Liquidity in Fiat Currency. That liquidity is replaceable with hard asset valuation. Tethering a currency to a hard asset makes sense because it keeps the Central Bank accountable and they cannot run up out of control deficits. Which is where we are. These deficits have been spent on crony capitalism and did not benefit the economy. They benefited Wall Street and DC. Maybe Silicone Valley too. That's it. Boom bust, that hurts me. Middle Class Americans, entrepreneurs. I guess I am a rebel.

 

[iatrogenic]

Why is increased liquidity needed in the first place?

I don’t know enough about global finance, central banking, etc — but I suspect that there are deeper systemic issues in our financial systems that create the boom/bust cycles we are so familiar with.

Are these things inevitable with any currency standard, or could a better monetary foundation be created that leads to greater stability?

There is a ton of literature on the role of the central bank in theory and in practice.

Before you convince anyone that Bitcoin is the next coming, you will have to explain how the "currency" would handle a coronavirus event? Where is the liquidity needed to prop up thousands of businesses the government shut down by force? Do you just let millions of people starve? Do you not shut down the businesses in the first place? Would that have even mattered? With no central bank, we would be in even greater trouble right now.

I certainly agree that the government has gone past overboard with their stupid spending, and that will hurt the economy badly at some point.

 

[Monahorns]

Are these things inevitable with any currency standard, or could a better monetary foundation be created that leads to greater stability?

Boom/busts are inevitable with any central banking system trained by Keynes and looking to help governments reduce their debt payment. End the Fed.

 

[Monahorns]

Liquidity is something Keynes was very concerned about. First, because governments needed more money to do what they wanted with having to tax their people more. They just devalue our money by printing up more for themselves.

It is very important to the elites that the system continues as it does. Because then they can act as the beneficiary to citizens when bad things happen. It allows them to be the problem and ACT like the solution.

Or would could just have honest money and freedom from government control. Nobody wants that anymore.

 

[AC]

There is a ton of literature on the role of the central bank in theory and in practice.

Before you convince anyone that Bitcoin is the next coming, you will have to explain how the "currency" would handle a coronavirus event? Where is the liquidity needed to prop up thousands of businesses the government shut down by force? Do you just let millions of people starve? Do you not shut down the businesses in the first place? Would that have even mattered? With no central bank, we would be in even greater trouble right now.

I certainly agree that the government has gone past overboard with their stupid spending, and that will hurt the economy badly at some point.

I don't have alot of time here. Short answer is an economy backed by a store of value asset (Gold or Bit Coin, what else? Moon Rocks?), uncoorelated to fiat currency would not cause the gyrations in the stock market. No more boom bust. Corona Virus? I come to this thread NOT to talk about Corona Virus. But I would have bucked Fouchi a while back. He is waaay to tied to the New World Order (Soros, Gates, Clinton Foundation)!

 

[Driver 8]

Bitcoin will serve as a store of value, aka Gold 2.0, this is its most likely role
It doesn't need to be a global reserve currency
The argument that someone could create a new cryptocurrency and displace Bitcoin is absurd because it is obvious, it has already been tried - look no further than Bitcoin Cash or Bitcoin BSV, two failed shitcoins forked off the BTC codebase
Many of the "crypto" projects want to be the next bitcoin and some of them have great tech and security but still fail

 

[AC]

Someday, I hope to thank Dion and Driver 8 for talking me out of shitcoin and only investing in Bitcoin. Don't know how yet, we'll see where this train takes us. It's a fun ride!