Coach Herman's Mid Field Non-Punt Theory

[Clean]

4th and 2 is greater than a 50/50 chance in the long run for even an average offense

We're 4 out of ten on 4th down conversions for the season. So, 1 out of 3 was a little below normal, but not much.

Going for it on 4th and missing is a turnover, the same as a fumble. Going for it and missing energized Kansas. They were down 14 points up until that first try and seemed resigned to taking the beating they expected. Then the worm turned.

Herman's doggedly going for it on 4th down instead of taking the FG was also a factor against LSU. Me, I'm doing like DKR and Bear unless I don't really have any choice.

 

[MajesticII]

Herman realizes giving the ball to the opponent, no matter where on the field, means they score on us; thus he tries to hang on to the ball.

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

Even dumber than the 4th and shorts was his decision to throw for it with 8 seconds left and no timeouts! If Sam fumbles the snap, gets sacked, CJ doesn't get out of bounds, or we get a holding penalty, game over! And for what - 5 extra yards?

Extra 5 yards AND no need to kick off and risk a final play like Stanford/Cal happening to you.

 

[horninchicago]

Extra 5 yards AND no need to kick off and risk a final play like Stanford/Cal happening to you.

How about just wait a few more seconds to call timeout vs. all the risks involved with a 5 yard pass? Bad snap, penalty, etc.

 

[zuckercanyon]

BTW, in Saban's presser he acknowledged his team was doing something not well and he said drum roolllll "we have to coach them better". Sooooo seems like a lot of coaches think they need to be better when someone makes an error...

 

[horninchicago]

BTW, in Saban's presser he acknowledged his team was doing something not well and he said drum roolllll "we have to coach them better". Sooooo seems like a lot of coaches think they need to be better when someone makes an error...

The difference is his teams consistently kick *** and actually do improve on the things he says need to be better.

 

[MajesticII]

Herman panicked. Clock stopped on first down. Didn't need a timeout at that time. Should have let team hustle to line and spike the ball. Would have had time to throw another pass or even run on 2nd down, THEN call timeout to kick FG. That way no worry about being tackled inbounds, because he would have had a timeout to use. Also if he wanted to try the FG from that spot, he would have had a timeout if the snap was bad etc. The guy wants to act like a guru, but is green around the gills.

 

[MajesticII]

I like his 'go for it on 4th and short' mentality. its not a bad thing if you have a stout defense. Unfortunately we don't, but with that he figures what is the difference between a 55 yard drive or 75 yard drive ? Answer : We get the ball back sooner. LOL..... The big issue is he and Orlando refuse to admit they are wrong about anything...Ego prevents him from admitting mistakes. Thus his "We need to coach them better." reply. Why would you not coach them to the best of your ability to begin with ? You make $ millions to do that. He will continue to try to fit a square peg into a round hole no matter what. " This is how we do things." He has a point about being a jack of all trades but master of none, but it isn't good to be a dumb*** either ,and continue to struggle trying to be a master at something you're not capable of doing. Back to that square peg and round hole..... LMAO

 

[zuckercanyon]

The difference is his teams consistently kick *** and actually do improve on the things he says need to be better.

Well said.

 

[Statalyzer]

We're 4 out of ten on 4th down conversions for the season. So, 1 out of 3 was a little below normal, but not much.

Ok but this is not only a small sample size, but it includes a play where we gained 15 yards on 4th and 3 and then fumbled at the end of the play. If Ehlinger starts a game 4/10 passing we wouldn't conclude that he's a 40% passer. But if we're going to do it that way, note that Texas converted 80% of our 4th downs last year (12 of 15).

 

[I35]

I'm not inexpert like many on here on Xs and Os, but if you have defense that is riddled with injuries, see my other thread on that, why would you put them in a possible position of being at mid field?

did you see the opening kickoff in the second half? KU marched it for like 80 yards for a TD. The way this defense is playing I’m not sure it matter where at on the field they get the ball. So I get him trying to get the first down in that situation. If KU don’t have the ball then they aren’t scoring. There’s no such thing right now of getting easier TDs when everywhere against our Def Is easy.

 

[horninchicago]

did you see the opening kickoff in the second half? KU marched it for like 80 yards for a TD. The way this defense is playing I’m not sure it matter where at on the field they get the ball. So I get him trying to get the first down in that situation. If KU don’t have the ball then they aren’t scoring. There’s no such thing right now of getting easier TDs when everywhere against our Def Is easy.

I can't refute any of this.

So, then, many agree on here that the staff has thrown in the towel on the defense and has to go for it on 4th downs when any normal team would just punt?

 

[Statalyzer]

Any normal team? Lots of people would go for it on 4th and 2 from the opposing 40 (which we did twice, once it worked and strangely nobody complained about going for it that time, and the other time the play worked but Sam missed an open guy). 4th and 2 from our own 45 is iffier, but my main beef there was the playcall - QB sweep with Jake Smith at QB? Why?

 

[MajesticII]

Any normal team? Lots of people would go for it on 4th and 2 from the opposing 40 (which we did twice, once it worked and strangely nobody complained about going for it that time, and the other time the play worked but Sam missed an open guy). 4th and 2 from our own 45 is iffier, but my main beef there was the playcall - QB sweep with Jake Smith at QB? Why?

It would have worked as well if the center could snap a ball straight. The bad snap caused that play to fail.

 

[horninchicago]

Any normal team? Lots of people would go for it on 4th and 2 from the opposing 40 (which we did twice, once it worked and strangely nobody complained about going for it that time, and the other time the play worked but Sam missed an open guy). 4th and 2 from our own 45 is iffier, but my main beef there was the playcall - QB sweep with Jake Smith at QB? Why?

Yes, normal team that doesn't lose half its starters to injury every year. When the defense sucks, don't give the other team a head start in filed position. Texas can't count on getting the 1st down, so punt the damn ball. It's as simple as that.

 

[NJlonghorn]

not arguing your point. just semi-questioning accuracy of what i assume are your stats. how often do you think punts between the 40s end up in the endzone?

I haven't seen college stats on this, but here's a chart of 10 years worth of NFL punts by line of scrimmage (x-axis) against punt distance (y-axis). Note that punts are not given credit for the extra 20 yards in the case of a touchback, so a punt form the 40 that goes into the endzone is counted as a 20-yard punt.

The diagonal boundary of the data along the top right represents the maximum possible punt length (downed at the 1). The cluster of points along a diagonal line 19 yards lower shows the touchbacks. The red line shows the average NFL punt (something like 42 yards). The yellow line shows the average NFL punt from a particular LOS.

Just eyeballing it -- if the LOS is the opposing 40 (60 yards from own end zone), the average punt is something like 28-29 yards. For college kickers, I'd expect the average to be something less than that.

This stat, which is called SHARP, is for gross punting distance. There is also a chart for SHARP-net somewhere out there.

 

[horninchicago]

Watching the replay on LHN. Of course, part of moving ahead due to time constraints was cutting out the two 4th down stops by KU.

I'm going to go with maybe it seems smart to do it, but I agree with the idea that it probably fired up KU and made Texas get done in the dumps a bit. The change of momentum.

 

[horninchicago]

As to why no one complained, and I haven't read the game thread, that is human nature. I'll bet many were complaining and wondering why the hell we would try it again having failed twice already. Until they made it, and barely, with a run off left tackle by RJ. Could have been stopped again probably with higher probability than kicking a punt into the end zone.

 

[HTownBevo]

In the post game presser - he sounds like an ***. It’s his players, his game plan, his play calling and his DC that lacked success. The kicker simply saved his ***.

 

[Statalyzer]

When the defense sucks, don't give the other team a head start in filed position.

Or you could say when the defense sucks, try to keep your offense on the field.

 

[mb227]

You don't punt on 4th and short. The offense should be able to get that. If you "...miss a punt and it goes in the end zone, you net 20 yards".

I'm not inexpert like many on here on Xs and Os, but if you have defense that is riddled with injuries, see my other thread on that, why would you put them in a possible position of being at mid field?

Obviously you are not Mensa material...if you were, your membership binder would have reminded you that, since the defense was ALREADY going to give up the 50 yards, you have to presume they were going to give up 80. So, you may as well give the kids an extra few plays to work on their tacking technique which they CLEARLY need to do...

 

[horninchicago]

Or you could say when the defense sucks, try to keep your offense on the field.

We can keep going back and forth. Or, you can not make it and give momentum to the other team.

 

[SabreHorn]

I was for going for it both times. My exact words, "Go for it, it's frickin' Kansas"

(Yes, I did say "frickin" because my grandson was with me.)

It's early in the game, set the tone against a grossly inferior team. If you don't get it, you've got serious problems.

Of course, my choice would have been to put Sam under center and let him call the play at the line.

 

[horninchicago]

I was for going for it both times. My exact words, "Go for it, it's frickin' Kansas"

(Yes, I did say "frickin" because my grandson was with me.)

It's early in the game, set the tone against a grossly inferior team. If you don't get it, you've got serious problems.

Of course, my choice would have been to put Sam under center and let him call the play at the line.

With that line of thinking, I guess it is good to go ahead and confirm that the team has serious problems.

 

[ShAArk92]

field position

THIS. As you stated, the greats knew that field position is a major factor.

Even dumber than the 4th and shorts was his decision to throw for it with 8 seconds left and no timeouts!

YES!

I REMEMBER wondering ... "what is he doing???" Sam/Co executed and it worked, but given the number of sacks ... and he'd had a couple batted ... and the ol INT.

3 things happen to a pass and 2 of 'em aren't good. So Mensa wants to quote stats about touchbacks, but disregards this one.

I was warming-up to Herman until the Kansas game. There's playing down to the competition ... and that's as much on the players as the coaches ... but the players don't call the plays.

I recognize he was embarrassed even being in that spot to need a FG to win the game ... but for crying out loud. Swaller yer pride, recognize that despite your buffoonery and player buffoonery, you still have a solid chance to win because you have a great FG kicker. Dicker didn't need the 5 yards and if we're at a point where we're scared of 3-4 seconds on the clock for the kickoff???

Well, then it's time to fold the tent.

 

[ShAArk92]

Extra 5 yards AND no need to kick off and risk a final play like Stanford/Cal happening to you.

don't need the 5 yards ...

and if a KO returned for a TD is that much of a concern ... well, just mail it in.

we literally got away with one. All that decision did was summarize the entire game in 8 seconds.

 

[horninchicago]

Yep, takes you back to Mack Brown and, "Scares you to death".

 

[Vol Horn 4 Life]

I REMEMBER wondering ... "what is he doing???" Sam/Co executed and it worked, but given the number of sacks ... and he'd had a couple batted ... and the ol INT.

A lady behind me at the game even asked why we were running another play with so little time left and no timeouts. My only possible reasoning was that Herman was scared to death to give KU the ball back with 10 seconds left. And that's just sad.

 

[horninchicago]

A lady behind me at the game even asked why we were running another play with so little time left and no timeouts. My only possible reasoning was that Herman was scared to death to give KU the ball back with 10 seconds left. And that's just sad.

The way Herman ran down the sideline to call the timeout with 8 seconds left makes you wonder. Why didn't he just take his time and call it with 3 seconds left? For 5 yards? Hmmmm.