CNN-Do the math-brokered convention

R

Ralphie

500+ Posts
CNN just did a hypothetical analysis with Obama running the table. If he wins by an average of about 60-40, due to the Democrats proportional delegate distribution, he still won't get enough delegates to win.

Similar scenario for Hillary.

One of them will need to basically sweep by huge margins. Not likely.

Looks like, mathematically at least, it is highly likely the Ds will have a brokered convention.

Advantage? No idea.

Unreal.
 
ah, yes, thanks. I think he said that one of them would have to start winning by 60-40 or better and sweep.
 
The DNC/Dean has said there will be no brokered convention

or at least they know they cannot afford to let it happen

If Obama continues to be the guy...lead in delegates...etc there is a lot of talk that the DNC power people will pressure Hillary to back out. Even a lot of support she make think she has now is not going to sit there and let the chance of the Dems winning the white house go down the drain because of the Clintons
 
From all the exit polls, apparently most of the dems would happily vote for either one, but while 16% of HRC's supporters said they would be very reluctant to support Obama, about 35% of his supporters say they would not support HRC. Makes a brokered convention kind of dangerous.
 
Obama has won the last 7 states by 55+.

D.C.:75-24
Virginia: 60-37
Maryland: 64-35
Maine: 57-42
Washington: 68-31
Nebraska: 68-32
Louisiana: 57-36

He'll win Wisconsin and Hawaii by huge margins as well. This race will be over on March 4th.
 
Hillary has once again manipulated the media by loudly and repeatedly charging them with unfavorable treatment. Now they are reluctant to openly discuss the chance of a runaway.
_________________________________________________

I dont believe the media is afraid to discuss statistical probabilities...now they may be afraid to criticize chelsea...great move by hillary.....bill wasnt working for her so she sends out her daughter and although chelsea is now a grownup and part of the political process, hillary has sent out a hands off directive and even got a msnbc reporter suspended for it...
 
Ralphie -

I know that from your side of the fence it may appear that way, and Republicans certainly want to believe this, but I don't think it's gonna happen. While Dems don't 'get in line' the way the GOP traditionally does once a nominee is apparent, that doesn't mean that we're completely unaware of political realities.

The only entity that can force a brokered convention, at this point, is Hillary Clinton's camp, which is currently on the verge of being surrounded. But the presumption that they will go 'William Travis' and keep all of her loyalists inside her Alamo is a fool's bet.
She's self-serving, not suicidal. Once it becomes all-too-apparent that she's finished, she'll cut a deal for Senate Majority Leader or some other plum gig and bow out gracefully.

Personally, I think a contested convention would be fun, as I plan to be there, but keep in mind that there are still around ~400+ superdelegates keeping their powder dry for the express purpose of avoiding such a ruckus. Once the dominoes start to fall - and I think they have already - she won't have anything left to fall back on.
 
Could happen- and if it doesn't turn ugly then it might be a great draw for the DEMs. A brokered convention would raise rather than lower interest in the Dems. Now if it deteriorates into the media desired cat fight that would be a negative. Texas will determine Clinton's fate, and I am leaning toward Obama nowas I thinkhe will lead a bigger national Dem victory down ticket and THAT is where the Dems and the new Dem President will need helpin making change.

If Obama can keep peeling off a little more of the white educted vote he looks formidable. As another post declaredthe fact his Tsunami effecthasn't completely destroyed Clinton's chances is a testament to her organization.

On the flip side you have John McCain tryingto simply accept the annointment and half the GOP rejecting the inevitable choice.
 
It's not at all clear that OH and TX will do anything for her. At this point, if the patterns hold (and they haven't broken yet), whatever preliminary leads Clinton has in these places will likely evaporate as Obama's manpower and organization parachute into these states and begin turning over more supporters and voters get a taste of both candidates up close.

She doesn't just need wins, she needs BIG wins, and I don't think she's gonna get them. Not to underestimate her - I'm absolutely sure her campaign is retooling and shifting their money around to focus their efforts in OH and TX and she has solid support bases in both to work from. But unlike CA, NY, NJ, MA, and AZ - where she was just able to hold the line - she needs break-outs where she beats her poll numbers and wins over undecideds in large numbers. Anything to indicate that's gonna happen?
 
MSNBC's numbers guy was claiming last night Hillary would need to get something like 60% of the vote numbers in Tx and Ohio

That seems very unlikely
 
Waht "screws" are you referring to? You can't strong-arm anyone if you don't have the muscle anymore.
 
I wonder if Dean has ever even met Bill Clinton. I assume he has, but based on statements like that I wonder. If so, what about the meeting would ever possess him to believe that Bill will willing allow a second grab at power to slip through his fingertips? That is very un-Clinton.

Look, 12,000 showed up at rally in El Paso for Clinton last night. Will Hillary win Texas by a 60-40 margin. No. Will she win in Texas? Probably. If she wins Ohio as well, the Clinton spin machine will announce that they have turned the tide and that they have 'momentum' going into the convention.

They will also point out that Hillary has won the largest states while Obama has built his delegate lead on red states that the Dems will not carry in the general. In other words, since Obama will likely not win the nomination outright during the primaries, they will diminuate the value of his delegate lead with the usual Clinton spin.

Anybody who doubts that is a fool. If Hillary wins Ohio and Texas, by any margin, she will fight to the bitter end. That is their way. Dean cannot stop her and Bill thinks that HE is the standard-bearer of the party -- who the hell is the DNC chairman to tell him what to do? Moreover, he is pretty much right. If it gets to a brokered convention, that is where the Clinton machine can really leverage influence without the media's bright lights and they will wrest this nomination from Obama and fracture their party in a last ditch effort to regain power.
 
Sii: To an extent I agree with everything you said. However, but to face facts, Obama does not have a huge lead over Clinton himself. Unless he has a 300+ delegate lead after Pennsylvania, it would be pretty tough to say that he is the 'clear' standard bearer of the party either. By the rules, if he cannot get the magic number, Clinton has every right to have the convention decide this issue.

Way to many x-factors to be factored in yet. For instance, the president of the NAACP is demanding that Florida and Michigans delegations be seated in accordance with the primary vote or the NAACP will sue the DNC.

While it appears that rank and file black voters have abandoned the Clintons, most black leaders never will. If the DNC backs down and gives Hillary those states, she retakes the delegate lead.

Never underestimate this people, Sii. They never die. Democrats are starting to learn what Republicans knew all along.
 
There is still the problem of Michigan and Florida, which the Clintons will press.

And the other sticky problem is that Michigan and Florida weren't the only states to violate Democratic Party Rules. Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina's primaries also violated the rules on timing of the primaries, yet their delegates will have a voice according to Clinton backers. It is a recipe for ugliness:

In reply to:
Click to expand...
 
There is no way that the DNC is just going to hand Clinton the delegates for FL and Mich. The rules were clear and Clinton like everyone else knew those states were not going to be seated with the change in their primaries. Esp Mich where no one else was even on the ballot. It wouldn't even work.

At best they hold them again....a caucus or something...but even that is unlikely with the money and time involved in that

After Texas and Ohio...and Obama is still ahead and Clinton doesnt blow him out there....the pressure is going to seriously start mounting for her to step aside....even from some of the party big wigs
 
Sii: Popular vote counts (which mean nothing) notwithstanding -- I hear you. But wash's point is valid. Five states violated the DNC's edict. Two were punished because three are considered early start sacred cows. I agree with you that Clinton should not get the delegates from Florida or Michigan. I am just saying that your are living in a dream world if you think that there is no chance that she will. Where do you think that guys like wash get the info they have? Who is papering the world with information about 5 states violating the edict with only two punished? Clinton surrogates.

It has already begun. The NAACP has already initiated its campaign to award those delegates.

I have heard two potential scenarios for resolution of this mess.

1) Hold caucuses for Florida and Michigan. Sounds fine. Who pays? Not the States of Michigan and Florida, they have already paid for an election once. I doubt that anybody wants to spend millions of DNC money that would be earmarked for the general election on holding a caucus, in states that don't already have an established caucus procedure, hiring election judges, ballot counters, etc. Caucus is somewhat impractical, although may be the only way out.

2. Seat the delegations but deny Florida and Michigan delegates the right to vote on the first ballot. I think this will catch fire. Technically, this amounts to the penalty that they have argued all along as they will have no effect on the first ballot. After the first ballot, the pledged delegates are 'released' anyway. In reality, though those state delegations will likely hold to their votes for more than one ballot. Enter Florida and Michigan delegates on the second ballot. I see this as the probable compromise. If Obama can get enough delegates and superdelegates to win on the first ballot, then he will be the nominee. If he cannot, then Florida and Michigan will be heard.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Weekly Prediction Contest

Predict TEXAS-ARIZONA STATE

CFP Round 2 • Peach Bowl
Wed, Jan 1 • 12:00 PM on ESPN
AZ State game and preview thread


Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl website

Recent Threads

Prediction Results Threads

2024 Schedules

Back
Top