Clinton up BIG in Ohio and Pennsylvania

[washparkhorn]

Latest polls - fwiw --

Ohio: Clinton 55, Obama 34

Pennsylvania: Clinton 52, Obama 36

Dates conducted: Feb. 6-12. Error margin: 4.1 points. Quinnipiac.
The Link

 

[reckoner11]

For the life of me, I do not understand....

 

[Super]

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[afat]

Penn is irrelevant. She's going to lose Texas and then drop out...if it gets that far.

 

[Mr.Wizard]

Not that easy, it is going to be close regardless.

 

[groverat]

This is the way it's happened the entire primary season. She simply does not know how to build momentum in such a way that it is either peaking or on the rise at the time of the actual voting.

Obama will do what he has done this entireseason, arrive with less time for the locals to tire of him and close the month-old gap with stunning rapidity.

Hillary's leads shrink and his leads grow. That's a cycle she needs desperately to break out of.

 

[TahoeHorn]

Look at big state primaries. She mistakenly blew off all those small caucus states and red states. She built her organization for the general election, not the primaries. Texas is a red state which she didn't plan to contest in the general so it'll be interesting. But Ohio and Pennsylvania are big states which are in play in November so she has worked them. It's no surpriise to me she has a lead. It'll shrink but I think she'll take them unless she quits before Pennsylvania.

 

[TheTresLeches]

Obama's staffers that I know said they've sent over 200 to Texas because they don't think they can beat Hillary in Ohio.

I was talking to some Valley politicians yesterday and they told me that they don't see Obama cutting into her support down there and that Hillary will win the Valley, the Coastal Bend and San Antonio by a big margin. They told me there's a dislike for Obama among their constituents to go along with their longtime support for the Clintons.

Assuming Austin goes big for Obama, the big fights will be in the Dallas and Houston areas.

 

[Mr.Wizard]

Obama will get Austin, but that is about it.

 

[longhornnick]

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[zzzz]

About 38% of the population of Houston and Dallas is Latino or Hispanic, which would tend to favor Hillary. Whether they're registered to vote is another question.

 

[afat]

And East Texas.

And Hillary will only go +2 delegates in South Texas.

 

[Ralphie]

How does Obama win East Texas? It's the racist yellow dog Democrat bastion of the state. Hillary wins by double digits east of I-45.

 

[blueglasshorse]

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[Son of a Son]

I am VERY interested to see how the cultural stereotypes play out in the democratic race here in Texas. If the hispanic vote mobilizes well, I believe Hillary wins, if not, it's going to be very close. I just don't know that the hispanic vote will support a black candidate.

 

[bozo_casanova]

I agree withe TresLeches- it all comes down to turnout in Dallas and Houston for Texas. I think the big machines will deliver in Ohio and PA.

That being said, Obama can lose all three by a aggregate 6% and still be ok if he can hold up on the money side, because he crushes her in Mississippi, Wyoming, probably wins Indiana by ~5%, North Carolina by 4%, and sweeps after a close loss to HRC in WVA.

 

[TahoeHorn]

What will happen with Republicans?

This diehard Republican would vote for Hillary on March 4 if he lived in Texas.

 

[Super]

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[TheTresLeches]

In Lousiana, Hillary got 60% of the white vote and 15% of the black vote. She'll win East Texas if that vote holds.

In Louisiana, blacks make up 32% of the population.

In the four East Texas Senate Districts (1, 2, 3, 4), they make up 16, 12, 12, and 13 percent of the Voting Age Population in those districts. In District 2, there are more Hispanics than blacks in that district.

 

[Sii]

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[longhornnick]

Delegates in Texas are apportioned by turnout in 2004 I believe and african americans voted much more heavily than latinos, so Billary can sweep the latino districts and still not pick up many more delegates than Obama. Obama can lose the state and still pick up close to as many as she will pick up.

 

[TheTresLeches]

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[bozo_casanova]

The middle of Pennsylvania is pure Appalachia. People in Philadelphia call it "Pennsyltucky".

yesterday on Hardball Chris Matthews quoted James Carville as framing Pennsylvania as "Philadelphia to the East, Pittsburgh to the West, and Alabama in the middle."

 

[gecko]

James Carville cracks me up.

 

[Horn6721]

Longhorn is correct. Dems delegates are based on a weird formula of dem voters in 04
so Hillary could get more actual votes but Because districts in Dallas and Houston get more delegates per population than districts in south Texas obama could win more delegates.

this will probably be the last time it is structured this way

 

[sak]

PA is too far away. Ohio and Texas are the key. Latest poll shows Hillary up 14 in Ohio. I do not think Obama can win Ohio, as the democratic establishment, which has good ground organization, is solidly behind the Clintons. But I think Obama will cut down and make it a single digit victory for Clinton. Texas is the key. Obama could come out of Texas with more delegates and if that happens Clinton is pretty much toast.