This is kind of how I felt about prognostications for college football back in Mack's era. We had x wins last year, we should improve, therefore we should have x+2 wins next year.
I just don't think it's that simple with Texas since 2010. When we fell apart and tried everything to regain prominence, it showed a lot of systemic flaws with Texas' approach to recruiting, coaching, etc. And I don't think those problems are fixed yet. If anything, I think we had more question marks in 2019 than we have in recent years, when it was easier to predict losses under Chuck Strong. We went 8-5, but I'd argue that we could have easily gone 4-8, watching what I watched against OK State, KU, and KSU. So theoretically, we could "improve" in things like scheme, tackling, and the run game, and still go 8-4 again with more resounding wins against the likes of KU.
I'd friggin love to go 11-1, but history says we won't.