Can you imagine us playing without any people in the stands at DKR

[mchammer]

Common flu is less than 1%

Last I checked, Korea had a 0.5% mortality rate.

 

[Olehornfan]

70,000 cases, 4800 deaths. Isn’t the flu worse?

The flu kills between 35 and 75 thousand each year. We have a vaccine and treatments for the flu. I suppose it could be a lot worse without those tools.
We have no protection against the Corona virus. If what has happened in Italy happens here? They are making life and death decisions because of inadequate equipment such as respirators. If you are old and get very sick you die. Guess what Italy has more doctors and equipment per capita than we do.

 

[RainH2burntO]

They are only testing people who go to the hospital

And these^^^^ are just the types of very important factoids that do not get properly communicated to the masses, and their exclusion totally mishapes, for the worse, the public's understanding of X. There are many of these types of crucial details not being reported properly and not being understood by the average person whose views and understanding are shaped almost entirely by mainstream media (whatever that is these days).

 

[mchammer]

And these^^^^ are just the types of very important factoids that do not get properly communicated to the masses, and their exclusion totally mishapes, for the worse, the public's understanding of X. There are many of these types of crucial details not being reported properly and not being understood by the average person whose views and understanding are shaped almost entirely by mainstream media (whatever that is these days).

Death rate in Germany is 0.2%

 

[Ajo Macho]

While the total number of cases and deaths doesn't sound compelling, anyone with a good understanding of math will tell you those aren't the important numbers. The most important number is the rate of growth.

Covid-19 has consistently had a daily growth rate of 15-25%. In other words, the amount of cases each day is roughly 20% more than the number of cases the day before. That's not steady growth; that's exponential growth.
One of the best ways to understand exponential growth is to look at the doubling time (or in the case of decay, the half-life). You get that with:

ln(2) / (rate)
where rate is expressed as a decimal (in our case, 0.2).

For a shorthand you can do in your head, use:

70/(rate)
where rate is expressed as a percentage (in our case, use 20). This easier mental math version has an error of less than 1%.

With a growth rate of 20%, that gives us a doubling time of roughly 3.5 days. Every week, the number of people with coronavirus quadruples. That's been going on for months now.

At the time of this post, Italy has roughly 15,000 confirmed cases, and the US has just over 1,200. That makes it sound like we're doing 10 times better, but at current rates of growth, we'll have as many cases as Italy in roughly 12.6 days. Three weeks after that, the US will hit 1 million cases.

In reality, exponential growth can't go on forever - if it did, the number of cases would eventually exceed the population of Earth. A few different factors can slow down the rate of growth:

1. Stop exposing people to each other (no travel or crowds)
2. Wash your hands
3. Once everyone's sick, you can't have more new cases!

Most of the time, exponential functions will usually reveal themselves to be the beginning of a logistic function (an S-curve). But since the number of new cases each day is still greater than the number of new cases the day before, we still haven't hit the inflection point. Once you hit that point, it means you can usually count on topping out at around twice the value you currently have. But since we haven't made it there yet, we should assume there will easily be more than twice as many new cases before it's over. As of yet, there's no sign there won't be orders of magnitude more cases.

Short version: If you're only paying attention to total quantity, and not rate of growth, you're paying attention to the wrong numbers.

 

[ViperHorn]

The northern part of Italy contains all of the country's major industrial areas; the fashion area of Milano; and the ski areas. Public transport is the rule, and this time of year features a lot of Asian visitors. Mix all of this and you get a high chance for the introduction and spread of the virus.

EDIT on 13 March:

The Swiss canton of Ticino (which borders on Italy) is now shutting down:
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/italia...ium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_content=o

 

[SabreHorn]

Ajp,

You just qualified to be CEO of MD Anderson because obviously you are much smarter than anyone at Catholic Healthcare Incompetence

 

[Ajo Macho]

Ajp,

You just qualified to be CEO o MD Anderson because obviously you are much smarter than anyone at Catholic Healthcare Incompetence

I'm a high school math teacher. And yes, I see math-related incompetence everywhere. I had to tell my financial adviser that a maximum (usually) occurs when the first derivative equals zero, and had to show him how to use the quadratic formula. He makes at least twice what I do.

If you ever find a politician with a background in STEM, regardless of party, elect them.

But seriously, if you know anyone who's hiring general purpose problem-solvers, let me know.

 

[SabreHorn]

Considering our BOR hired CHI to run MD Anderson and St Luke's after they posted a $700 million loss and just before they took over California which lost $100 million, you may want to apply to the BOR. Your IQ is higher than the combined IQs of all the morons at CHI.

As for politicians, I testified before a US Senate Subcommittee almost 20 years ago. The chairman told me, "I detect a note of disdain and disrespect in your voice".

My reply - "Senator, show me a politician I have an ounce of respect for, and I'll show you a dead man." Then I exploded while he broke his gavel.

 

[Statalyzer]

We have a vaccine and treatments for the flu.

Granted, it's not a super-reliable vaccine.

 

[Joe Fan]

 

[Giovanni Jones]

Be interesting to know how long it would take to completely air out all of Jester Center.

 

[Horn6721]

^ I am glad I won't be the one doing it

 

[Ajo Macho]

My reply - "Senator, show me a politician I have an ounce of respect for, and I'll show you a dead man." Then I exploded while he broke his gavel.

I've never understood people who are proud of being a jerk in public. Can you explain the thought process?

 

[BevoJoe]

Death rate in Germany is 0.2%

Is that figure the percentage of deaths among the reported/confirmed number of actual cases or of the total population of Germany? Germany has a total population of 83 million. If it kills off 0.2% of the population, that would be about 166,000 dead. The US has a population estimated of 330,000,000, so 0.2% death rate would be 660,000 folks.

 

[SabreHorn]

I've never understood people who are proud of being a jerk in public. Can you explain the thought process?

First of all, he was an arrogant prick looking down on anyone he thought wasn't his equal. In the committee hearing, they are seated literally above you and looking down on you with your head lower than their feet. Secondly, he is accepting money from GE, Seimens, & big pharma while women are dying.

After years of women trying to change the system, it took someone of equal arrogance and belligerence to force the Senate to change regulations to save thousands of women's lives every year. Our very own MD Anderson was in the middle of the turmoil and not on my side, but being a ***** for big pharma. I sought no notoriety and credit. I simply was called to try to correct an egregious wrong.

We didn't get what we went after, but we did get the regulations changed to benefit women.

FWIW, I lost my best friend to triple negative breast cancer thanks to the whores at MD Anderson. By the Grace of God, my daughter is now a five year survivor of triple negative.

MD Anderson does a wonderful job for thousands of people, but not for everyone.

 

[RainH2burntO]

While the total number of cases and deaths doesn't sound compelling, anyone with a good understanding of math will tell you those aren't the important numbers. The most important number is the rate of growth.

Covid-19 has consistently had a daily growth rate of 15-25%. In other words, the amount of cases each day is roughly 20% more than the number of cases the day before. That's not steady growth; that's exponential growth.
One of the best ways to understand exponential growth is to look at the doubling time (or in the case of decay, the half-life). You get that with:

ln(2) / (rate)
where rate is expressed as a decimal (in our case, 0.2).

For a shorthand you can do in your head, use:

70/(rate)
where rate is expressed as a percentage (in our case, use 20). This easier mental math version has an error of less than 1%.

With a growth rate of 20%, that gives us a doubling time of roughly 3.5 days. Every week, the number of people with coronavirus quadruples. That's been going on for months now.

At the time of this post, Italy has roughly 15,000 confirmed cases, and the US has just over 1,200. That makes it sound like we're doing 10 times better, but at current rates of growth, we'll have as many cases as Italy in roughly 12.6 days. Three weeks after that, the US will hit 1 million cases.

In reality, exponential growth can't go on forever - if it did, the number of cases would eventually exceed the population of Earth. A few different factors can slow down the rate of growth:

1. Stop exposing people to each other (no travel or crowds)
2. Wash your hands
3. Once everyone's sick, you can't have more new cases!

Most of the time, exponential functions will usually reveal themselves to be the beginning of a logistic function (an S-curve). But since the number of new cases each day is still greater than the number of new cases the day before, we still haven't hit the inflection point. Once you hit that point, it means you can usually count on topping out at around twice the value you currently have. But since we haven't made it there yet, we should assume there will easily be more than twice as many new cases before it's over. As of yet, there's no sign there won't be orders of magnitude more cases.

Short version: If you're only paying attention to total quantity, and not rate of growth, you're paying attention to the wrong numbers.

Good post, Acho.
But just to be clear...I'm not sure anyone here was questioning the potential spread of this disease so much as the spread of panic based on unwarranted fears of the seriousness of it.

Case in point....I am an avid tennis player and all USTA league and tournaments have been cxd indefinitely as of today......A complete fear-based overreaction as related to this epidemic, based on it's level of seriousness from a health standpoint and the current health environment and prevalence of it....as it relates to competitive tennis outdoors, at least.

 

[Pomspoms]

There's no way that there will be a 2020 football season. The virus will still be an issue in September.

 

[militaryhorn]

Is that figure the percentage of deaths among the reported/confirmed number of actual cases or of the total population of Germany? Germany has a total population of 83 million. If it kills off 0.2% of the population, that would be about 166,000 dead. The US has a population estimated of 330,000,000, so 0.2% death rate would be 660,000 folks.

Typically that percentage is based on number of infected to the number of deaths of those infected.

 

[dukesteer]

There's no way that there will be a 2020 football season. The virus will still be an issue in September.

I hope — but also predict — that you’re mistaken.

I believe in American ingenuity. With that in mind, I expect for us to fast track a vaccine and while one may not be available for distribution this fall, I also expect that treatments to better manage the impact of the virus will be available. That would be a big deal.

There are silver linings. For example, everyone is now acutely aware of how illnesses are spread and more importantly, they are taking radical steps to limit transmission. That reality will help us fight the spread of illnesses in the future.

How many of us have been embarrassed not to shake hands with someone that we knew might be sick? Well, those days may be over, and that’s a good thing.

We will learn volumes from this experience. For example, our government should and will likely pounce — even earlier — when they suspect that a problem somewhere in the world may be emerging. The precedent of banning entry to our country from selected regions will be repeated in the future, to the benefit of all individuals who live here.

Finally, this will be a reality check, that our dependence on China must end. Economic advantage must and I believe will give way to national security and American interests. In other words, companies will be forced to reassess their supply chains, resulting in a potential job and industry boom here and perhaps in places like Mexico.

 

[Giovanni Jones]

A poignant article on the situation for many of the athletes. I feel for them.
For Many Athletes, Coronavirus Means the End of College Careers

 

[Giovanni Jones]

While the total number of cases and deaths doesn't sound compelling, anyone with a good understanding of math will tell you those aren't the important numbers. The most important number is the rate of growth.

Covid-19 has consistently had a daily growth rate of 15-25%. In other words, the amount of cases each day is roughly 20% more than the number of cases the day before. That's not steady growth; that's exponential growth.
One of the best ways to understand exponential growth is to look at the doubling time (or in the case of decay, the half-life). You get that with:

ln(2) / (rate)
where rate is expressed as a decimal (in our case, 0.2).

For a shorthand you can do in your head, use:

70/(rate)
where rate is expressed as a percentage (in our case, use 20). This easier mental math version has an error of less than 1%.

With a growth rate of 20%, that gives us a doubling time of roughly 3.5 days. Every week, the number of people with coronavirus quadruples. That's been going on for months now.

At the time of this post, Italy has roughly 15,000 confirmed cases, and the US has just over 1,200. That makes it sound like we're doing 10 times better, but at current rates of growth, we'll have as many cases as Italy in roughly 12.6 days. Three weeks after that, the US will hit 1 million cases.

In reality, exponential growth can't go on forever - if it did, the number of cases would eventually exceed the population of Earth. A few different factors can slow down the rate of growth:

1. Stop exposing people to each other (no travel or crowds)
2. Wash your hands
3. Once everyone's sick, you can't have more new cases!

Most of the time, exponential functions will usually reveal themselves to be the beginning of a logistic function (an S-curve). But since the number of new cases each day is still greater than the number of new cases the day before, we still haven't hit the inflection point. Once you hit that point, it means you can usually count on topping out at around twice the value you currently have. But since we haven't made it there yet, we should assume there will easily be more than twice as many new cases before it's over. As of yet, there's no sign there won't be orders of magnitude more cases.

Short version: If you're only paying attention to total quantity, and not rate of growth, you're paying attention to the wrong numbers.

Along those lines, here's an article at the NYTimes about the growth factor and including interactive charts where you can adjust the timing of the intervention and the level of aggressiveness for the intervention.
Opinion | How Much Worse the Coronavirus Could Get, in Charts

 

[1963_Frosh]

Has the Longhorns spring training/game been canceled?

 

[Giovanni Jones]

Has the Longhorns spring training/game been canceled?

Probably will be a radically different format than in previous years ...

 

[AC]

Regardless of the spring game. I just hope and pray the players and us fans can manage to stay healthy between now and football season! I hope and think, this virus will slow down by June when it really warms up. Maybe July at worst. I am not a health care professional by any means. Faint at site of a lot of blood! But I do believe or at least hope this slows down well before the season. I cannot take a long lapse in business activity. I was having a great first quarter and need it to continue. Lord help help us all!